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Spurious correlation #2,567 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Brody and the second variable is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR).  The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

More people naming their kids Brody are fans of surfing. This increases the demand for surfboards. The increased demand for surfboards leads to higher resin and plastic prices. Petrobras, as a major oil and gas company, benefits from the higher demand for their petroleum products used in the production of resin and plastic.

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that represents a TIME magazine cover featuring a bustling city scene. In the foreground, a large electronic billboard prominently displays the name "Brody" along with a downward arrow indicating decreasing popularity. Below the billboard, a stock market ticker shows Petrobras' stock price (PBR) trending downward. Surrounding buildings reflect the global impact, with small oil rigs and barrels appearing to shrink as fewer future Brody oil tycoons can be anticipated. The visual should be simple and not include any words or speech bubbles. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: 3D Pixar Style A TIME magazine cover image Surrealism Brutalism Macabre
ChatGPT: A TIME magazine cover image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR), in the following situation: As the popularity of the name Brody decreases, so does the number of future oil tycoons named Brody, leading to a decreased demand for oil and a drop in Petrobras' stock price. This in turn has a ripple effect on the global oil market, all because there are fewer future Brody oil barons to keep the industry booming. It's the Brody Effect on Big Oil!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling city, a large electronic billboard displays the name "Brody" with a downward arrow next to it, indicating decreasing popularity. Below, in a separate section, a stock market ticker shows Petrobras' stock price (PBR) also trending downward. The surrounding buildings reflect the global impact, with small oil rigs and barrels appearing to shrink as fewer future Brody oil tycoons can be anticipated.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A TIME magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling city, a large electronic billboard displays the name "Brody" with a downward arrow next to it, indicating decreasing popularity. Below, in a separate section, a stock market ticker shows Petrobras' stock price (PBR) also trending downward. The surrounding buildings reflect the global impact, with small oil rigs and barrels appearing to shrink as fewer future Brody oil tycoons can be anticipated. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that represents a TIME magazine cover featuring a bustling city scene. In the foreground, a large electronic billboard prominently displays the name "Brody" along with a downward arrow indicating decreasing popularity. Below the billboard, a stock market ticker shows Petrobras' stock price (PBR) trending downward. Surrounding buildings reflect the global impact, with small oil rigs and barrels appearing to shrink as fewer future Brody oil tycoons can be anticipated. The visual should be simple and not include any words or speech bubbles.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how increases in Popularity of the first name Brody positively influenced Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price

Journal of Quirky Quantitative Finance

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Include a pun in the title.

Your research team used data from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and p < 0.01 for 2002 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
INTRODUCTION

Through the annals of academia, researchers have often sought to illuminate the hitherto dark and enigmatic pathways that connect seemingly unrelated variables. The quest to uncover correlations—whether they be significant, spurious, or delightfully nonsensical—has been a perennial fascination of the scientific community. In this whimsical vein, we embark on a peculiar journey to explore the ostensibly preposterous link between the burgeoning popularity of the first name "Brody" and the undulating stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR).

One might ask, what piqued the curiosity of the research community to explore such a peculiar correlation? Was it a happenstance encounter with a fortune-telling octopus, or perhaps a cryptic message from a Magic 8-Ball? Alas, the origins are far more mundane. It was, in fact, a serendipitous perusal of records from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) that led to the unearthing of this delightfully absurd relationship. The synergy of these disparate datasets set the stage for our investigation into the zany association between the ebbs and flows of Petrobras' stock price and the proliferation of those bearing the moniker "Brody."

Naturally, one must approach such an investigation with a cautious blend of rigorous inquiry and lighthearted bemusement. After all, statistical analysis is a bit like a fine art: it requires precision, an imaginative touch, and the occasional dab of absurdity. As whimsical as the premise may appear, we have taken great care to rigorously analyze the data and employ robust statistical methods. Our aim is to bring a wink and a chuckle to the staid hallways of finance, infusing a dash of levity into the bastion of number-crunching and stock analyses.

In this paper, we unveil the unexpectedly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8164266, eliciting both furrowed brows of scientific curiosity and amused twitches of incredulity. With a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022, the evidence of this relationship is as undeniable as it is charmingly implausible. Our intent is not only to add a touch of whimsy to the often dour landscape of financial analysis—although that is undeniably a welcome byproduct—but also to invite scholars and merrymakers alike to tap into the joy of uncovering an utterly unexpected connection.

So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare to experience a rollercoaster of mirth and statistical insight. This paper endeavors to unhinge the constraints of traditional correlation research and usher in a world where the correlation between "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price reigns supreme, sprinkling a dash of speculative merriment amidst the staid doctrine of number-centric scrutiny.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading CVS receipts.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
Through the annals of academia, researchers have often sought to illuminate the hitherto dark and enigmatic pathways that connect seemingly unrelated variables. The quest to uncover correlations—whether they be significant, spurious, or delightfully nonsensical—has been a perennial fascination of the scientific community. In this whimsical vein, we embark on a peculiar journey to explore the ostensibly preposterous link between the burgeoning popularity of the first name "Brody" and the undulating stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR).
One might ask, what piqued the curiosity of the research community to explore such a peculiar correlation? Was it a happenstance encounter with a fortune-telling octopus, or perhaps a cryptic message from a Magic 8-Ball? Alas, the origins are far more mundane. It was, in fact, a serendipitous perusal of records from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) that led to the unearthing of this delightfully absurd relationship. The synergy of these disparate datasets set the stage for our investigation into the zany association between the ebbs and flows of Petrobras' stock price and the proliferation of those bearing the moniker "Brody."
Naturally, one must approach such an investigation with a cautious blend of rigorous inquiry and lighthearted bemusement. After all, statistical analysis is a bit like a fine art: it requires precision, an imaginative touch, and the occasional dab of absurdity. As whimsical as the premise may appear, we have taken great care to rigorously analyze the data and employ robust statistical methods. Our aim is to bring a wink and a chuckle to the staid hallways of finance, infusing a dash of levity into the bastion of number-crunching and stock analyses.
In this paper, we unveil the unexpectedly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8164266, eliciting both furrowed brows of scientific curiosity and amused twitches of incredulity. With a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022, the evidence of this relationship is as undeniable as it is charmingly implausible. Our intent is not only to add a touch of whimsy to the often dour landscape of financial analysis—although that is undeniably a welcome byproduct—but also to invite scholars and merrymakers alike to tap into the joy of uncovering an utterly unexpected connection.
So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare to experience a rollercoaster of mirth and statistical insight. This paper endeavors to unhinge the constraints of traditional correlation research and usher in a world where the correlation between "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price reigns supreme, sprinkling a dash of speculative merriment amidst the staid doctrine of number-centric scrutiny.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
LITERATURE REVIEW

The whimsical relationship between the popularity of the name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has sparked interest among researchers, prompting a range of investigations into this charmingly nonsensical correlation.

In "Smith et al.," the authors find lorem and ipsum. Similarly, Doe's study illuminates the intricacies of this peculiar association, shedding light on lorem and ipsum. Furthermore, Jones' research presents compelling evidence regarding the impact of Brody's popularity on the fluctuations of Petrobras' stock price, highlighting lorem and ipsum.

Turning to relevant non-fiction resources, works such as "Statistics for Dummies" and "Behavioral Economics: When Bubbles Burst" have provided valuable insights into the statistical methodologies and behavioral factors that may underpin the unexpected correlation between a first name and a stock price. Moreover, the literature pertaining to financial analysis, including "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" and "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything," has served as a foundational framework for contextualizing the findings of this research within the broader landscape of economic absurdities.

Extrapolating into the realm of fiction, the imaginative worlds of "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" and "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland" offer delightful parallels to the fanciful nature of this correlation, where reality mirrors the absurd and the implausible reigns supreme. Drawing parallels from these literary works, one cannot help but marvel at the whimsicality of life's correlations, where the inconceivable becomes tangibly intertwined with the mundanities of financial markets.

Beyond the confines of conventional academic sources, this literature review has left no stone unturned in seeking to illuminate the depths of this correlation. The perusal of grocery store receipts, the contemplation of fortune cookies, and even the whimsical ponderings sparked by nursery rhymes have all contributed to a comprehensive understanding of the delightful enigma that is the connection between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the fluctuations of Petrobras' stock price.

In conclusion, this review of both scholarly and delightfully offbeat sources lays the groundwork for our investigation into this charmingly nonsensical correlation. As we navigate through the data and statistical analyses in subsequent sections, the culmination of these diverse perspectives will invite the reader to embark on a rollicking journey of statistical whimsy and inexplicable charm, underscoring the adage that truth is sometimes stranger than fiction.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
Through the annals of academia, researchers have often sought to illuminate the hitherto dark and enigmatic pathways that connect seemingly unrelated variables. The quest to uncover correlations—whether they be significant, spurious, or delightfully nonsensical—has been a perennial fascination of the scientific community. In this whimsical vein, we embark on a peculiar journey to explore the ostensibly preposterous link between the burgeoning popularity of the first name "Brody" and the undulating stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR).
One might ask, what piqued the curiosity of the research community to explore such a peculiar correlation? Was it a happenstance encounter with a fortune-telling octopus, or perhaps a cryptic message from a Magic 8-Ball? Alas, the origins are far more mundane. It was, in fact, a serendipitous perusal of records from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) that led to the unearthing of this delightfully absurd relationship. The synergy of these disparate datasets set the stage for our investigation into the zany association between the ebbs and flows of Petrobras' stock price and the proliferation of those bearing the moniker "Brody."
Naturally, one must approach such an investigation with a cautious blend of rigorous inquiry and lighthearted bemusement. After all, statistical analysis is a bit like a fine art: it requires precision, an imaginative touch, and the occasional dab of absurdity. As whimsical as the premise may appear, we have taken great care to rigorously analyze the data and employ robust statistical methods. Our aim is to bring a wink and a chuckle to the staid hallways of finance, infusing a dash of levity into the bastion of number-crunching and stock analyses.
In this paper, we unveil the unexpectedly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8164266, eliciting both furrowed brows of scientific curiosity and amused twitches of incredulity. With a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022, the evidence of this relationship is as undeniable as it is charmingly implausible. Our intent is not only to add a touch of whimsy to the often dour landscape of financial analysis—although that is undeniably a welcome byproduct—but also to invite scholars and merrymakers alike to tap into the joy of uncovering an utterly unexpected connection.
So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare to experience a rollercoaster of mirth and statistical insight. This paper endeavors to unhinge the constraints of traditional correlation research and usher in a world where the correlation between "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price reigns supreme, sprinkling a dash of speculative merriment amidst the staid doctrine of number-centric scrutiny.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The methodology employed in this research endeavor was as meticulously planned as untangling a ball of yarn in the company of a litter of playful kittens. The data collection process transpired as follows:

1. Data Collection: The first step involved accessing the records of first name popularity from the US Social Security Administration, which provided comprehensive data on the frequency of the name "Brody" from 2002 to 2022. Meanwhile, the stock price data for Petrobras (PBR) was acquired from LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), capturing the daily fluctuations in stock prices over the same period. The data were as carefully gathered as picking the ripest grapes from the vine, ensuring that no outliers or erroneous data crept into our dataset.

2. Correlation Analysis: Utilizing the nifty tools of statistical analysis, we calculated the correlation coefficient between the popularity of the name "Brody" and the stock price of Petrobras. The correlation analysis was conducted with the meticulous care of a watchmaker assembling the intricacies of a pocket watch, ensuring that every facet of the relationship was scrutinized with utmost precision.

3. Statistical Significance: In order to ascertain the statistical relevance of our findings, we diligently computed the p-value associated with the correlation coefficient. This process demanded the same level of scrutiny as distinguishing a rare species from its common kin in the depths of the jungle, guaranteeing that the significance of our results was not merely a fleeting mirage.

4. Robustness Checks: To fortify the durability of our findings, we conducted robustness checks using a variety of statistical techniques, akin to a chef tirelessly taste-testing a dish to ensure its delectable perfection. These checks encompassed alternative correlation measures and sensitivity analyses to verify the resiliency of our results under varying conditions.

5. Ethical Considerations: As with any scholarly pursuit, ethical considerations were paramount. We ensured the confidentiality and anonymity of all individuals represented in the first name dataset, treating their names with the utmost respect, as one would handle a delicate Fabergé egg.

In summary, the research methodology was executed with the precision of a tango dancer navigating the dance floor, blending rigor with a touch of whimsy to unravel the extraordinary and improbable connection between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .

For the time period 2002 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8164266, r-squared of 0.6665524, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
INTRODUCTION
Through the annals of academia, researchers have often sought to illuminate the hitherto dark and enigmatic pathways that connect seemingly unrelated variables. The quest to uncover correlations—whether they be significant, spurious, or delightfully nonsensical—has been a perennial fascination of the scientific community. In this whimsical vein, we embark on a peculiar journey to explore the ostensibly preposterous link between the burgeoning popularity of the first name "Brody" and the undulating stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR).
One might ask, what piqued the curiosity of the research community to explore such a peculiar correlation? Was it a happenstance encounter with a fortune-telling octopus, or perhaps a cryptic message from a Magic 8-Ball? Alas, the origins are far more mundane. It was, in fact, a serendipitous perusal of records from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) that led to the unearthing of this delightfully absurd relationship. The synergy of these disparate datasets set the stage for our investigation into the zany association between the ebbs and flows of Petrobras' stock price and the proliferation of those bearing the moniker "Brody."
Naturally, one must approach such an investigation with a cautious blend of rigorous inquiry and lighthearted bemusement. After all, statistical analysis is a bit like a fine art: it requires precision, an imaginative touch, and the occasional dab of absurdity. As whimsical as the premise may appear, we have taken great care to rigorously analyze the data and employ robust statistical methods. Our aim is to bring a wink and a chuckle to the staid hallways of finance, infusing a dash of levity into the bastion of number-crunching and stock analyses.
In this paper, we unveil the unexpectedly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8164266, eliciting both furrowed brows of scientific curiosity and amused twitches of incredulity. With a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022, the evidence of this relationship is as undeniable as it is charmingly implausible. Our intent is not only to add a touch of whimsy to the often dour landscape of financial analysis—although that is undeniably a welcome byproduct—but also to invite scholars and merrymakers alike to tap into the joy of uncovering an utterly unexpected connection.
So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare to experience a rollercoaster of mirth and statistical insight. This paper endeavors to unhinge the constraints of traditional correlation research and usher in a world where the correlation between "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price reigns supreme, sprinkling a dash of speculative merriment amidst the staid doctrine of number-centric scrutiny.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The analysis of the data spanning from 2002 to 2022 revealed a surprisingly strong and positive correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). The correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 indicates a robust relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. This finding elicits both raised eyebrows of astonishment and amused smirks of disbelief, as it challenges conventional wisdom in the arena of financial analysis.

In addition to the high correlation coefficient, the r-squared value of 0.6665524 further emphasizes the substantial influence of the popularity of "Brody" on Petrobras' stock price. This r-squared value of approximately 0.67 indicates that a substantial proportion of the variability in PBR stock price can be explained by the popularity of this seemingly innocuous first name. The statistical significance of this relationship is underscored by the p-value being less than 0.01, further solidifying the unexpected link between these two variables.

The scatterplot (Fig. 1) conveys the notable correlation, showcasing the synchronous rise and fall of the popularity of "Brody" alongside the undulating trajectory of Petrobras' stock price. The figure is a testament to the whimsical nature of this association and serves as a visual testament to the unexpected relationship uncovered in this study.

In summary, the results of this investigation defy the conventional boundaries of correlation research, introducing a delightful twist to the realm of economic analysis. The remarkably strong correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price challenges traditional notions of causal relationships, injects a dose of humor into the stern world of financial analysis, and prompts a reevaluation of the often-sidelined role of seemingly inconsequential variables.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
LITERATURE REVIEW
The whimsical relationship between the popularity of the name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has sparked interest among researchers, prompting a range of investigations into this charmingly nonsensical correlation.
In "Smith et al.," the authors find lorem and ipsum. Similarly, Doe's study illuminates the intricacies of this peculiar association, shedding light on lorem and ipsum. Furthermore, Jones' research presents compelling evidence regarding the impact of Brody's popularity on the fluctuations of Petrobras' stock price, highlighting lorem and ipsum.
Turning to relevant non-fiction resources, works such as "Statistics for Dummies" and "Behavioral Economics: When Bubbles Burst" have provided valuable insights into the statistical methodologies and behavioral factors that may underpin the unexpected correlation between a first name and a stock price. Moreover, the literature pertaining to financial analysis, including "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" and "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything," has served as a foundational framework for contextualizing the findings of this research within the broader landscape of economic absurdities.
Extrapolating into the realm of fiction, the imaginative worlds of "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" and "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland" offer delightful parallels to the fanciful nature of this correlation, where reality mirrors the absurd and the implausible reigns supreme. Drawing parallels from these literary works, one cannot help but marvel at the whimsicality of life's correlations, where the inconceivable becomes tangibly intertwined with the mundanities of financial markets.
Beyond the confines of conventional academic sources, this literature review has left no stone unturned in seeking to illuminate the depths of this correlation. The perusal of grocery store receipts, the contemplation of fortune cookies, and even the whimsical ponderings sparked by nursery rhymes have all contributed to a comprehensive understanding of the delightful enigma that is the connection between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the fluctuations of Petrobras' stock price.
In conclusion, this review of both scholarly and delightfully offbeat sources lays the groundwork for our investigation into this charmingly nonsensical correlation. As we navigate through the data and statistical analyses in subsequent sections, the culmination of these diverse perspectives will invite the reader to embark on a rollicking journey of statistical whimsy and inexplicable charm, underscoring the adage that truth is sometimes stranger than fiction.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data spanning from 2002 to 2022 revealed a surprisingly strong and positive correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). The correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 indicates a robust relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. This finding elicits both raised eyebrows of astonishment and amused smirks of disbelief, as it challenges conventional wisdom in the arena of financial analysis.
In addition to the high correlation coefficient, the r-squared value of 0.6665524 further emphasizes the substantial influence of the popularity of "Brody" on Petrobras' stock price. This r-squared value of approximately 0.67 indicates that a substantial proportion of the variability in PBR stock price can be explained by the popularity of this seemingly innocuous first name. The statistical significance of this relationship is underscored by the p-value being less than 0.01, further solidifying the unexpected link between these two variables.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) conveys the notable correlation, showcasing the synchronous rise and fall of the popularity of "Brody" alongside the undulating trajectory of Petrobras' stock price. The figure is a testament to the whimsical nature of this association and serves as a visual testament to the unexpected relationship uncovered in this study.
In summary, the results of this investigation defy the conventional boundaries of correlation research, introducing a delightful twist to the realm of economic analysis. The remarkably strong correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price challenges traditional notions of causal relationships, injects a dose of humor into the stern world of financial analysis, and prompts a reevaluation of the often-sidelined role of seemingly inconsequential variables.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The comical connection between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has left many befuddled, much like a physics professor confronting a joke about entropy. However, our findings amusingly align with prior research that has delved into the zany world of inexplicable correlations.

Falling in step with the scholarly quest to unravel the enigmatic bond between a moniker and a financial indicator, our study revels in the absurdity of uncovering a correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01. This outcome echoes the curious inquiries of previous researchers, akin to a team of intrepid explorers navigating the convoluted terrain of an absurdist novel.

The whimsical literature review playfully peppered our investigation with references to "Statistics for Dummies" and "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," serving as a delightful reminder of the levity that underpins statistical analyses. To our delight, our results align with these playful references, affirming the unexpected yet resilient relationship between the seemingly incongruous "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price.

Our findings, much like a lively magician's sleight of hand, challenge the traditional demarcations of correlation research. The whimsical confluence of Brody's popularity and Petrobras' stock price injects a touch of mirth into the typically staid field of economic analysis, prompting a reconsideration of the impact of seemingly inconsequential variables on financial indicators.

In essence, our study thrusts a comical spotlight on the unexpected and inexplicable, much like a serendipitous encounter with a clown at a business conference. As we merrily navigate through these findings, we invite fellow researchers and enthusiasts to join us in reveling in the delightful absurdity that pervades the intersection of statistical research and economic whimsy.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brody and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
Through the annals of academia, researchers have often sought to illuminate the hitherto dark and enigmatic pathways that connect seemingly unrelated variables. The quest to uncover correlations—whether they be significant, spurious, or delightfully nonsensical—has been a perennial fascination of the scientific community. In this whimsical vein, we embark on a peculiar journey to explore the ostensibly preposterous link between the burgeoning popularity of the first name "Brody" and the undulating stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR).
One might ask, what piqued the curiosity of the research community to explore such a peculiar correlation? Was it a happenstance encounter with a fortune-telling octopus, or perhaps a cryptic message from a Magic 8-Ball? Alas, the origins are far more mundane. It was, in fact, a serendipitous perusal of records from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) that led to the unearthing of this delightfully absurd relationship. The synergy of these disparate datasets set the stage for our investigation into the zany association between the ebbs and flows of Petrobras' stock price and the proliferation of those bearing the moniker "Brody."
Naturally, one must approach such an investigation with a cautious blend of rigorous inquiry and lighthearted bemusement. After all, statistical analysis is a bit like a fine art: it requires precision, an imaginative touch, and the occasional dab of absurdity. As whimsical as the premise may appear, we have taken great care to rigorously analyze the data and employ robust statistical methods. Our aim is to bring a wink and a chuckle to the staid hallways of finance, infusing a dash of levity into the bastion of number-crunching and stock analyses.
In this paper, we unveil the unexpectedly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8164266, eliciting both furrowed brows of scientific curiosity and amused twitches of incredulity. With a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022, the evidence of this relationship is as undeniable as it is charmingly implausible. Our intent is not only to add a touch of whimsy to the often dour landscape of financial analysis—although that is undeniably a welcome byproduct—but also to invite scholars and merrymakers alike to tap into the joy of uncovering an utterly unexpected connection.
So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare to experience a rollercoaster of mirth and statistical insight. This paper endeavors to unhinge the constraints of traditional correlation research and usher in a world where the correlation between "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price reigns supreme, sprinkling a dash of speculative merriment amidst the staid doctrine of number-centric scrutiny.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data spanning from 2002 to 2022 revealed a surprisingly strong and positive correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). The correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 indicates a robust relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. This finding elicits both raised eyebrows of astonishment and amused smirks of disbelief, as it challenges conventional wisdom in the arena of financial analysis.
In addition to the high correlation coefficient, the r-squared value of 0.6665524 further emphasizes the substantial influence of the popularity of "Brody" on Petrobras' stock price. This r-squared value of approximately 0.67 indicates that a substantial proportion of the variability in PBR stock price can be explained by the popularity of this seemingly innocuous first name. The statistical significance of this relationship is underscored by the p-value being less than 0.01, further solidifying the unexpected link between these two variables.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) conveys the notable correlation, showcasing the synchronous rise and fall of the popularity of "Brody" alongside the undulating trajectory of Petrobras' stock price. The figure is a testament to the whimsical nature of this association and serves as a visual testament to the unexpected relationship uncovered in this study.
In summary, the results of this investigation defy the conventional boundaries of correlation research, introducing a delightful twist to the realm of economic analysis. The remarkably strong correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and Petrobras' stock price challenges traditional notions of causal relationships, injects a dose of humor into the stern world of financial analysis, and prompts a reevaluation of the often-sidelined role of seemingly inconsequential variables.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our foray into the whimsical world of wacky correlations has left us both bewildered and amused by the striking connection between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petrobras. Who would have thought that a seemingly innocuous name could exert such an outsized influence on the financial realm? It appears that Brody is not just a popular name but also a potent force in the stock market – move over, Wall Street, there's a new player in town!

The robust correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and the r-squared value of 0.6665524 have revealed the uncanny sway that Brody holds over Petrobras' stock price. With a p-value of less than 0.01, the statistical significance of this relationship is as resolute as a scientist in a lab pursuing the elusive ideal gas law. The scatterplot (Fig. 1) speaks volumes, illustrating the synchronous dance of Brody's popularity and Petrobras' stock price with the finesse of a statistical tango.

As we reflect on these findings, it is apparent that the world of correlation research is not all dry equations and rigid analyses – it has its share of surprises and chuckles, much like a lab filled with overly excitable test tubes. Let us embrace the unexpected correlations that defy logic and inject a touch of levity into our scholarly pursuits. After all, who knows what other delightfully bizarre relationships are waiting to be uncovered in the annals of data analysis?

Ultimately, this research adds a whimsical twist to the staid corridors of financial analysis, reminding us that even in the world of numbers and stock prices, there is room for a bit of statistical whimsy. Furthermore, it is evident that no more research is needed in this peculiar realm of inquiry, as we have unearthed the lighthearted and improbable correlation between the popularity of Brody and Petrobras' stock price, leaving us simultaneously perplexed and entertained.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Quirky Quantitative Finance


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Economic Synergies and Strategic Alliances


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Crude Connections: Brody's Popularity and Petrobras' Stock Price with an abstract of This research paper delves into the whimsical world of wacky correlations by investigating the link between the popularity of the first name "Brody" and the stock price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR). Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study aims to shed light on this charmingly absurd relationship. Contrary to common belief, our findings reveal a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.8164266 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. This research adds a touch of levity to the often dour field of financial analysis, bringing a lighthearted twist to the world of economic research.

ChatGPT:

"Brody" popularity, Petrobras stock price, Crude Connections, whimsical correlations, first name popularity, PBR stock price, absurd relationships, Social Security Administration data, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, correlation coefficient, p-value, financial analysis, economic research

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Popularity of the first name Brody
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Brody
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Brody

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR)

Correlation r = 0.8164266 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.6665524 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 66.7% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Brody) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 6.4E-6. 0.0000063658276566177450000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.82 in 0.00064% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 157,089 random variables You don't actually need 157 thousand variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.59, 0.92 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Popularity of the first name Brody (Babies born)108314701744205228384242631854105070509643744344433837633069256824852256214620411793
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR) (Stock price)5.833.787.3710.0318.1825.8858.5824.2348.8837.6925.3719.8513.456.994.3210.5910.4613.1916.0411.4311.02




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([1083,1470,1744,2052,2838,4242,6318,5410,5070,5096,4374,4344,4338,3763,3069,2568,2485,2256,2146,2041,1793,])
array_2 = np.array([5.83,3.78,7.37,10.03,18.18,25.88,58.58,24.23,48.88,37.69,25.37,19.85,13.45,6.99,4.32,10.59,10.46,13.19,16.04,11.43,11.02,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Brody"
array_2_name = "Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras' stock price (PBR)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 2567 · Black Variable ID: 2786 · Red Variable ID: 1639
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