Spurious correlation #3,897 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Robberies in Idaho and the second variable is U.S. intercountry adoptions. The chart goes from 1999 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Robberies in Idaho and the second variable is U.S. intercountry adoptions. The chart goes from 1999 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

Criminals found it more lucrative to steal hearts instead of valuables, leading to a nationwide shortage of babies for adoption. Looks like Idaho's drop in robberies really stole the show!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Prompt: A serene Idaho town scene with a dark twist. The local bank appears idyllic, with the sheriff casually conversing with tellers. In the park, couples are tenderly holding their newly adopted pets, radiating joy. Unsettlingly, the U.S. intercountry adoption agency office next door looks eerily empty, hinting at the decrease in human adoptions. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Woodblock painting Macabre Steampunk Surrealism Macabre
ChatGPT: Macabre

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions, in the following situation: Because as robberies decreased in Idaho, would-be thieves had to find other ways to steal hearts, leading to a surge in romantic gestures and couples adopting furry companions instead of human children. This unexpected shift in priorities caused a decrease in U.S. intercountry adoptions.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a peaceful Idaho town, the local bank showed a decrease in robberies as the sheriff stood chatting with the tellers. Meanwhile, in the park, couples cuddled with their newly adopted dogs and cats, the air filled with love and laughter. Meanwhile, the U.S. intercountry adoption agency's office next door looked empty, as the number of adoptions had decreased due to the newfound focus on furry companions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Macabre ] and depicting this scene: In a peaceful Idaho town, the local bank showed a decrease in robberies as the sheriff stood chatting with the tellers. Meanwhile, in the park, couples cuddled with their newly adopted dogs and cats, the air filled with love and laughter. Meanwhile, the U.S. intercountry adoption agency's office next door looked empty, as the number of adoptions had decreased due to the newfound focus on furry companions. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Prompt: A serene Idaho town scene with a dark twist. The local bank appears idyllic, with the sheriff casually conversing with tellers. In the park, couples are tenderly holding their newly adopted pets, radiating joy. Unsettlingly, the U.S. intercountry adoption agency office next door looks eerily empty, hinting at the decrease in human adoptions.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Robberies in Idaho caused U.S. intercountry adoptions to decrease. Add a funny one-liner at the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

The Journal of Quirky Criminology

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then cite some social media posts you read that seem to be related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the puzzling relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions over the period from 1999 to 2021. Utilizing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, we employed rigorous statistical analysis to unravel this unanticipated entanglement. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, signaling a strong association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Moreover, the statistical significance with p < 0.01 serves as a testament to the veracity of this strange connection. In the course of our investigation, we encountered some curious patterns that may shed light on the underlying dynamics driving this unexpected link. While we strive to maintain a scholarly demeanor, the absurdity of the findings cannot be overlooked, prompting us to ponder whether there may be a more larcenous motive behind some adoptions. Furthermore, it is our hope that this research encourages future studies to explore the eccentric associations that often escape notice in the world of social phenomena.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The study of societal phenomena often leads researchers down unexpected paths, uncovering peculiar connections that seem to defy all logic and reason. In this vein, we embark upon an exploration of the perplexing relationship between robberies in the serene state of Idaho and the intricate web of U.S. intercountry adoptions. While one may assume these topics to be as dissimilar as chalk and cheese, our investigation has unearthed a startling correlation that challenges conventional wisdom and raises more than a few eyebrows.
The genesis of this inquiry stemmed from a chance encounter with data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs. As we delved into the numerical tapestry, we found ourselves ensnared in the enigmatic nexus between criminal activity and the commendable act of intercountry adoptions. The initial shock at the unlikely coalescence of these two disparate domains soon morphed into an insatiable curiosity to decipher the underlying mechanisms at play.
With a resolute commitment to methodological rigor, we subjected the data to stringent statistical analysis in our quest to untangle this bewildering conundrum. The resulting correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 left us grappling with the magnitude of the association, as it stood as a testament to the unmistakable link between these seemingly incongruous phenomena. The statistical significance of p < 0.01 further solidified our conviction in the legitimacy of this confounding bond, leaving us little room but to entertain the possibility of a deeper, more clandestine connection.
As diligent scholars, we approached this unanticipated convergence with an earnest desire to uphold the solemnity of academic inquiry. However, the sheer absurdity of our findings has led us to contemplate the existence of a more nefarious undercurrent beneath the veneer of altruistic intercountry adoptions. While we refrain from leaping to hasty conclusions, the implications of our discoveries have us pondering whether there may be a more larcenous motive lurking within the realm of international adoption.
It is our fervent hope that this investigation serves not only to shed light on the idiosyncratic association between robberies in the Gem State and the transfer of children across international borders, but also to incite further exploration of the curious interplay between seemingly disparate social phenomena. For in the world of scholarly inquiry, as in life, the most unexpected connections often yield the most intriguing revelations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "Smith et al. (2015)," the authors find that the rate of robberies in Idaho has exhibited an upward trend over the past two decades, presenting a curious anomaly in a state known more for its potatoes than criminal activity. Building on this, "Doe and Johnson (2018)" delve into the intricate world of U.S. intercountry adoptions, shedding light on the complex cultural, legal, and ethical dimensions that underpin this transnational phenomenon. However, our research takes a departure from the expected and ventures into the realm of the unexpected.

Turning to non-fiction sources, "The Sociology of Crime" by James Q. Wilson offers a comprehensive overview of the sociological theories underlying criminal behavior, while "International Adoption: Global Inequalities and the Circulation of Children" by Diana Marre and Laura Briggs provides insight into the socio-political complexities of intercountry adoptions. These resources, while invaluable, fail to address the extraordinary nexus we have uncovered.

On a more speculative note, the fiction works "Robbery at the Adoption Agency" by Agatha Christie and "The Burglar's Baby" by Janet Evanovich—a surprising departure from her Stephanie Plum series—offer imaginative forays into the intersection of theft and adoption. While their narratives are firmly ensconced in the realm of make-believe, the uncanny resonance with our findings gives one pause.

Adding to this mix, social media posts have also yielded intriguing anecdotes, such as a tweet from @TrueCrimeObsessed that humorously mused, "Are adoptions secretly being funded by stolen goods? #ConspiracyTheory." While this may be tongue-in-cheek, the alignment with our own musings is too striking to be dismissed outright.

These disparate sources, though varied in nature, collectively point to a perplexing correlation that demands further scrutiny and perhaps a sprinkle of Sherlock Holmes' deductive reasoning. As we continue our exploration, the absurdity of our discovery remains ever-present, reminding us that in the labyrinth of social phenomena, the most unlikely connections may hold the key to unlocking profound truths.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Bureau of Consular Affairs . You used data from 1999 to 2021

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the puzzling relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions over the period from 1999 to 2021. Utilizing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, we employed rigorous statistical analysis to unravel this unanticipated entanglement. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, signaling a strong association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Moreover, the statistical significance with p < 0.01 serves as a testament to the veracity of this strange connection. In the course of our investigation, we encountered some curious patterns that may shed light on the underlying dynamics driving this unexpected link. While we strive to maintain a scholarly demeanor, the absurdity of the findings cannot be overlooked, prompting us to ponder whether there may be a more larcenous motive behind some adoptions. Furthermore, it is our hope that this research encourages future studies to explore the eccentric associations that often escape notice in the world of social phenomena.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The study of societal phenomena often leads researchers down unexpected paths, uncovering peculiar connections that seem to defy all logic and reason. In this vein, we embark upon an exploration of the perplexing relationship between robberies in the serene state of Idaho and the intricate web of U.S. intercountry adoptions. While one may assume these topics to be as dissimilar as chalk and cheese, our investigation has unearthed a startling correlation that challenges conventional wisdom and raises more than a few eyebrows.
The genesis of this inquiry stemmed from a chance encounter with data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs. As we delved into the numerical tapestry, we found ourselves ensnared in the enigmatic nexus between criminal activity and the commendable act of intercountry adoptions. The initial shock at the unlikely coalescence of these two disparate domains soon morphed into an insatiable curiosity to decipher the underlying mechanisms at play.
With a resolute commitment to methodological rigor, we subjected the data to stringent statistical analysis in our quest to untangle this bewildering conundrum. The resulting correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 left us grappling with the magnitude of the association, as it stood as a testament to the unmistakable link between these seemingly incongruous phenomena. The statistical significance of p < 0.01 further solidified our conviction in the legitimacy of this confounding bond, leaving us little room but to entertain the possibility of a deeper, more clandestine connection.
As diligent scholars, we approached this unanticipated convergence with an earnest desire to uphold the solemnity of academic inquiry. However, the sheer absurdity of our findings has led us to contemplate the existence of a more nefarious undercurrent beneath the veneer of altruistic intercountry adoptions. While we refrain from leaping to hasty conclusions, the implications of our discoveries have us pondering whether there may be a more larcenous motive lurking within the realm of international adoption.
It is our fervent hope that this investigation serves not only to shed light on the idiosyncratic association between robberies in the Gem State and the transfer of children across international borders, but also to incite further exploration of the curious interplay between seemingly disparate social phenomena. For in the world of scholarly inquiry, as in life, the most unexpected connections often yield the most intriguing revelations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

In order to disentangle the web of complexities surrounding the relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions, our research team embarked on a methodological odyssey that would make Odysseus himself envious. Our data collection and analysis process was akin to traversing a convoluted labyrinth, complete with unexpected dead ends and the occasional Minotaur-sized statistical anomaly.

First and foremost, we scoured the virtual aisles of the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, selecting data ranging from 1999 to 2021 with the precision of a bargain-hunting shopper on Black Friday. Adhering to the scientific principle of "beggars can't be choosers," we gleefully accepted any morsel of data that crossed our path, although we must confess that the urge to employ a divining rod in our search did arise at times.

Once the data was corralled, we subjected it to a battery of statistical analyses that would make even the hardiest of calculators tremble. Our weaponry of choice included correlation analyses, regression models, and other analytical tools that often elicited groans from our weary software and the occasional "Are we there yet?" plea from our beleaguered research assistants.

Our statistical toolkit, akin to a Swiss Army knife of analytical methods, allowed us to unearth the astonishing correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 that cemented the perplexing link between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Like intrepid detectives following a trail of breadcrumbs, we also scrutinized p-values with the voracity of a sommelier evaluating a vintage wine, and the p < 0.01 threshold emerged as a seal of approval for the legitimacy of this fantastical association.

It is worth noting that our approach was not without its moments of existential reflection, as we grappled with the sheer audacity of our findings. We found ourselves questioning whether statistics had indeed gone too far in uncovering this unlikely relationship, not unlike a philosophical debate on whether a tree falling in the forest makes a sound if no one is around to hear it. Yet, with unwavering resolve, we ventured forth in pursuit of scholarly enlightenment and perhaps the occasional statistical mirage.

Lastly, in a bid to maintain methodological transparency and to provide fellow researchers with a roadmap through our labyrinthine journey, we are committed to making our data and analysis code available, should any brave souls wish to embark on a similar expedition through the untamed wilderness of correlation analysis and intercountry adoption.

In the spirit of scholarly camaraderie, we invite our esteemed colleagues to embark on their own quests to unravel mind-boggling connections in the tapestry of societal phenomena, assuring them that the rewards of discovery may well outweigh the occasional statistical labyrinthine meanderings.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Bureau of Consular Affairs .

For the time period 1999 to 2021, you found a correlation 0.9267912, r-squared of 0.8589419, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the puzzling relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions over the period from 1999 to 2021. Utilizing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, we employed rigorous statistical analysis to unravel this unanticipated entanglement. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, signaling a strong association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Moreover, the statistical significance with p < 0.01 serves as a testament to the veracity of this strange connection. In the course of our investigation, we encountered some curious patterns that may shed light on the underlying dynamics driving this unexpected link. While we strive to maintain a scholarly demeanor, the absurdity of the findings cannot be overlooked, prompting us to ponder whether there may be a more larcenous motive behind some adoptions. Furthermore, it is our hope that this research encourages future studies to explore the eccentric associations that often escape notice in the world of social phenomena.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The study of societal phenomena often leads researchers down unexpected paths, uncovering peculiar connections that seem to defy all logic and reason. In this vein, we embark upon an exploration of the perplexing relationship between robberies in the serene state of Idaho and the intricate web of U.S. intercountry adoptions. While one may assume these topics to be as dissimilar as chalk and cheese, our investigation has unearthed a startling correlation that challenges conventional wisdom and raises more than a few eyebrows.
The genesis of this inquiry stemmed from a chance encounter with data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs. As we delved into the numerical tapestry, we found ourselves ensnared in the enigmatic nexus between criminal activity and the commendable act of intercountry adoptions. The initial shock at the unlikely coalescence of these two disparate domains soon morphed into an insatiable curiosity to decipher the underlying mechanisms at play.
With a resolute commitment to methodological rigor, we subjected the data to stringent statistical analysis in our quest to untangle this bewildering conundrum. The resulting correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 left us grappling with the magnitude of the association, as it stood as a testament to the unmistakable link between these seemingly incongruous phenomena. The statistical significance of p < 0.01 further solidified our conviction in the legitimacy of this confounding bond, leaving us little room but to entertain the possibility of a deeper, more clandestine connection.
As diligent scholars, we approached this unanticipated convergence with an earnest desire to uphold the solemnity of academic inquiry. However, the sheer absurdity of our findings has led us to contemplate the existence of a more nefarious undercurrent beneath the veneer of altruistic intercountry adoptions. While we refrain from leaping to hasty conclusions, the implications of our discoveries have us pondering whether there may be a more larcenous motive lurking within the realm of international adoption.
It is our fervent hope that this investigation serves not only to shed light on the idiosyncratic association between robberies in the Gem State and the transfer of children across international borders, but also to incite further exploration of the curious interplay between seemingly disparate social phenomena. For in the world of scholarly inquiry, as in life, the most unexpected connections often yield the most intriguing revelations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs yielded unexpected and, dare I say, downright quirky results. Our exploration into the connection between robberies in the peaceful state of Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions from 1999 to 2021 unveiled a correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, indicating a striking association between these seemingly unrelated variables. The robustness of this association was further underscored by an r-squared value of 0.8589419, leaving us in awe of the extent to which these two disparate realms converged.

Figure 1 showcases a scatterplot that vividly illustrates the strong correlation between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. The visual representation is akin to a piece of abstract art, with each data point seeming to whisper, "Hey, there's more to this than meets the eye!"

Remarkably, the p-value, which measures the likelihood of observing such an extreme correlation by chance alone, was less than 0.01. This level of statistical significance made it abundantly clear that the connection between these phenomena was not something we could simply brush off as a fluke or a statistical hiccup. No, this was as real as it gets in the world of quantitative analysis.

While the implications of these findings may leave the academic community scratching their heads and the general public wondering what on earth is going on, it is imperative to approach this unexpected correlation with a blend of rigorous scrutiny and a healthy sense of humor. After all, life is full of surprises – and apparently, so is data analysis.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the puzzling relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions over the period from 1999 to 2021. Utilizing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, we employed rigorous statistical analysis to unravel this unanticipated entanglement. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, signaling a strong association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Moreover, the statistical significance with p < 0.01 serves as a testament to the veracity of this strange connection. In the course of our investigation, we encountered some curious patterns that may shed light on the underlying dynamics driving this unexpected link. While we strive to maintain a scholarly demeanor, the absurdity of the findings cannot be overlooked, prompting us to ponder whether there may be a more larcenous motive behind some adoptions. Furthermore, it is our hope that this research encourages future studies to explore the eccentric associations that often escape notice in the world of social phenomena.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "Smith et al. (2015)," the authors find that the rate of robberies in Idaho has exhibited an upward trend over the past two decades, presenting a curious anomaly in a state known more for its potatoes than criminal activity. Building on this, "Doe and Johnson (2018)" delve into the intricate world of U.S. intercountry adoptions, shedding light on the complex cultural, legal, and ethical dimensions that underpin this transnational phenomenon. However, our research takes a departure from the expected and ventures into the realm of the unexpected.
Turning to non-fiction sources, "The Sociology of Crime" by James Q. Wilson offers a comprehensive overview of the sociological theories underlying criminal behavior, while "International Adoption: Global Inequalities and the Circulation of Children" by Diana Marre and Laura Briggs provides insight into the socio-political complexities of intercountry adoptions. These resources, while invaluable, fail to address the extraordinary nexus we have uncovered.
On a more speculative note, the fiction works "Robbery at the Adoption Agency" by Agatha Christie and "The Burglar's Baby" by Janet Evanovich—a surprising departure from her Stephanie Plum series—offer imaginative forays into the intersection of theft and adoption. While their narratives are firmly ensconced in the realm of make-believe, the uncanny resonance with our findings gives one pause.
Adding to this mix, social media posts have also yielded intriguing anecdotes, such as a tweet from @TrueCrimeObsessed that humorously mused, "Are adoptions secretly being funded by stolen goods? #ConspiracyTheory." While this may be tongue-in-cheek, the alignment with our own musings is too striking to be dismissed outright.
These disparate sources, though varied in nature, collectively point to a perplexing correlation that demands further scrutiny and perhaps a sprinkle of Sherlock Holmes' deductive reasoning. As we continue our exploration, the absurdity of our discovery remains ever-present, reminding us that in the labyrinth of social phenomena, the most unlikely connections may hold the key to unlocking profound truths.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs yielded unexpected and, dare I say, downright quirky results. Our exploration into the connection between robberies in the peaceful state of Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions from 1999 to 2021 unveiled a correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, indicating a striking association between these seemingly unrelated variables. The robustness of this association was further underscored by an r-squared value of 0.8589419, leaving us in awe of the extent to which these two disparate realms converged.
Figure 1 showcases a scatterplot that vividly illustrates the strong correlation between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. The visual representation is akin to a piece of abstract art, with each data point seeming to whisper, "Hey, there's more to this than meets the eye!"
Remarkably, the p-value, which measures the likelihood of observing such an extreme correlation by chance alone, was less than 0.01. This level of statistical significance made it abundantly clear that the connection between these phenomena was not something we could simply brush off as a fluke or a statistical hiccup. No, this was as real as it gets in the world of quantitative analysis.
While the implications of these findings may leave the academic community scratching their heads and the general public wondering what on earth is going on, it is imperative to approach this unexpected correlation with a blend of rigorous scrutiny and a healthy sense of humor. After all, life is full of surprises – and apparently, so is data analysis.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of our study have brought to light a connection that is not only unexpected but also undeniably perplexing. The robust correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 has lent substantial support to the prior research by Smith et al. (2015), who first brought attention to the peculiar rise in robberies in Idaho. Our results not only echo their observations but also elevate the curiosity surrounding this anomaly to new heights. While Smith et al. focused on the increase in criminal activity, our study extends this narrative by uncovering a startling link between these robberies and U.S. intercountry adoptions.

Additionally, the literature review provided a glimpse into the unconventional trail of sources we trod upon in pursuit of understanding this enigmatic connection. The musings of @TrueCrimeObsessed on social media, though seemingly whimsical, offered a glimpse into a realm where reality and conspiracy theories intersect. The resonance between these offhand remarks and our own ponderings cannot be ignored, hinting at a potential undercurrent that transcends the realm of fiction. It is admirable to see a convergence of scholarly and speculative sources, ultimately culminating in the empirical evidence presented in our study.

As for the underlying mechanics of this association, one might be tempted to conjure fanciful notions akin to the fictional narratives in Agatha Christie's "Robbery at the Adoption Agency" or Janet Evanovich's unexpected departure into larcenous baby business. However, our analysis offers a more measured perspective. It is plausible that the economic pressures stemming from an increase in robberies could inadvertently influence the adoption landscape, leading to fluctuations in the U.S. intercountry adoption patterns. It is a stark reminder that in the labyrinth of social phenomena, the most unlikely connections may hold the key to unlocking profound truths.

The implications of these findings, while undoubtedly beguiling, warrant a blend of academic rigor and a healthy dollop of levity. After all, when faced with an unforeseen association of this nature, one cannot help but marvel at the capriciousness of statistical phenomena. Our results serve as a gentle nudge to the academic community, urging scholars to embrace the unexpected and navigate the enthralling, if not whimsical, paths that data can unveil. As we await future studies that may venture into the eccentric associations often lurking beneath the surface of societal phenomena, it is clear that the intersection of robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions has, in its own peculiar way, added a splash of color to the canvas of sociological inquiry.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the puzzling relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions over the period from 1999 to 2021. Utilizing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, we employed rigorous statistical analysis to unravel this unanticipated entanglement. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, signaling a strong association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Moreover, the statistical significance with p < 0.01 serves as a testament to the veracity of this strange connection. In the course of our investigation, we encountered some curious patterns that may shed light on the underlying dynamics driving this unexpected link. While we strive to maintain a scholarly demeanor, the absurdity of the findings cannot be overlooked, prompting us to ponder whether there may be a more larcenous motive behind some adoptions. Furthermore, it is our hope that this research encourages future studies to explore the eccentric associations that often escape notice in the world of social phenomena.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The study of societal phenomena often leads researchers down unexpected paths, uncovering peculiar connections that seem to defy all logic and reason. In this vein, we embark upon an exploration of the perplexing relationship between robberies in the serene state of Idaho and the intricate web of U.S. intercountry adoptions. While one may assume these topics to be as dissimilar as chalk and cheese, our investigation has unearthed a startling correlation that challenges conventional wisdom and raises more than a few eyebrows.
The genesis of this inquiry stemmed from a chance encounter with data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs. As we delved into the numerical tapestry, we found ourselves ensnared in the enigmatic nexus between criminal activity and the commendable act of intercountry adoptions. The initial shock at the unlikely coalescence of these two disparate domains soon morphed into an insatiable curiosity to decipher the underlying mechanisms at play.
With a resolute commitment to methodological rigor, we subjected the data to stringent statistical analysis in our quest to untangle this bewildering conundrum. The resulting correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 left us grappling with the magnitude of the association, as it stood as a testament to the unmistakable link between these seemingly incongruous phenomena. The statistical significance of p < 0.01 further solidified our conviction in the legitimacy of this confounding bond, leaving us little room but to entertain the possibility of a deeper, more clandestine connection.
As diligent scholars, we approached this unanticipated convergence with an earnest desire to uphold the solemnity of academic inquiry. However, the sheer absurdity of our findings has led us to contemplate the existence of a more nefarious undercurrent beneath the veneer of altruistic intercountry adoptions. While we refrain from leaping to hasty conclusions, the implications of our discoveries have us pondering whether there may be a more larcenous motive lurking within the realm of international adoption.
It is our fervent hope that this investigation serves not only to shed light on the idiosyncratic association between robberies in the Gem State and the transfer of children across international borders, but also to incite further exploration of the curious interplay between seemingly disparate social phenomena. For in the world of scholarly inquiry, as in life, the most unexpected connections often yield the most intriguing revelations.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs yielded unexpected and, dare I say, downright quirky results. Our exploration into the connection between robberies in the peaceful state of Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions from 1999 to 2021 unveiled a correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, indicating a striking association between these seemingly unrelated variables. The robustness of this association was further underscored by an r-squared value of 0.8589419, leaving us in awe of the extent to which these two disparate realms converged.
Figure 1 showcases a scatterplot that vividly illustrates the strong correlation between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions. The visual representation is akin to a piece of abstract art, with each data point seeming to whisper, "Hey, there's more to this than meets the eye!"
Remarkably, the p-value, which measures the likelihood of observing such an extreme correlation by chance alone, was less than 0.01. This level of statistical significance made it abundantly clear that the connection between these phenomena was not something we could simply brush off as a fluke or a statistical hiccup. No, this was as real as it gets in the world of quantitative analysis.
While the implications of these findings may leave the academic community scratching their heads and the general public wondering what on earth is going on, it is imperative to approach this unexpected correlation with a blend of rigorous scrutiny and a healthy sense of humor. After all, life is full of surprises – and apparently, so is data analysis.

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Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has illuminated a surreal intersection between robberies in the tranquil state of Idaho and the intricate web of U.S. intercountry adoptions. The robust correlation coefficient of 0.9267912 not only defies conventional expectations but also serves as a reminder that the world of statistical analysis is rife with unexpected twists and turns. The statistical significance with p < 0.01 unequivocally asserts that this enigmatic bond is not to be dismissed lightly, and perhaps prompts us to question whether there's a more covert playbook at work in some adoptions.

As we reflect on these peculiar findings, it becomes clear that the world of social phenomena is indeed a rich tapestry of bewildering connections, many of which may elude conventional understanding. Our results beg the question: are there clandestine forces at play, weaving a web of intrigue that entwines the seemingly unrelated realms of criminal activity and international adoption? Or perhaps, in the words of Shakespeare, "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

While we have stumbled upon this curiously strong correlation, it is crucial to recognize that correlation does not imply causation. Nonetheless, the implications of our findings are as fascinating as they are confounding, leaving us with a lasting sense of wonder and a healthy dose of skepticism.

In the spirit of scholarly inquiry, we urge future researchers to delve deeper into the peculiar associations that often lurk in the shadows of statistical data. However, for the time being, we assert that our study has unraveled one of the most confounding riddles in the annals of social phenomena and confidently declare that no more research is needed in this particular area. After all, sometimes a little mystery is just what the academic doctor ordered.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Quirky Criminology

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Unconventional Connections in Criminology and Adoption Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions with an abstract of This study delves into the puzzling relationship between robberies in Idaho and U.S. intercountry adoptions over the period from 1999 to 2021. Utilizing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the Bureau of Consular Affairs, we employed rigorous statistical analysis to unravel this unanticipated entanglement. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9267912, signaling a strong association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Moreover, the statistical significance with p < 0.01 serves as a testament to the veracity of this strange connection. In the course of our investigation, we encountered some curious patterns that may shed light on the underlying dynamics driving this unexpected link. While we strive to maintain a scholarly demeanor, the absurdity of the findings cannot be overlooked, prompting us to ponder whether there may be a more larcenous motive behind some adoptions. Furthermore, it is our hope that this research encourages future studies to explore the eccentric associations that often escape notice in the world of social phenomena.

ChatGPT:

robberies, Idaho, U.S., intercountry adoptions, correlation, statistical analysis, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, Bureau of Consular Affairs, association, patterns, larcenous motive, social phenomena

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Robberies in Idaho
Detailed data title: The robbery rate per 100,000 residents in Idaho
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Robberies in Idaho

U.S. intercountry adoptions
Source: Bureau of Consular Affairs
See what else correlates with U.S. intercountry adoptions

Correlation r = 0.9267912 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8589419 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 85.9% of the change in the one variable (i.e., U.S. intercountry adoptions) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Robberies in Idaho) over the 23 years from 1999 through 2021.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.2E-10.^Show 0.0000000002159278221922392200
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.93 in 2.2E-8% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 4,631,177,168 random variables^Note You don't actually need 4 billion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 22 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 22 because we have two variables measured over a period of 23 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.83, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Robberies in Idaho (Robbery rate)	17.8	17.2	18.6	17.9	17.9	17.3	18.6	20	16.2	15.7	16.4	13.6	11.9	15.2	13.6	12.4	11.6	12.7	12.9	11.1	9	9.5	8.3
U.S. intercountry adoptions (Adoptions)	15719	18857	19647	21467	21654	22991	22734	20680	19608	17456	12744	11058	9319	8668	7092	6438	5644	5370	4714	4059	2971	1622	1785

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([17.8,17.2,18.6,17.9,17.9,17.3,18.6,20,16.2,15.7,16.4,13.6,11.9,15.2,13.6,12.4,11.6,12.7,12.9,11.1,9,9.5,8.3,])
array_2 = np.array([15719,18857,19647,21467,21654,22991,22734,20680,19608,17456,12744,11058,9319,8668,7092,6438,5644,5370,4714,4059,2971,1622,1785,])
array_1_name = "Robberies in Idaho"
array_2_name = "U.S. intercountry adoptions"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

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For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Robberies in Idaho
Line chart for only U.S. intercountry adoptions
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: An Unlikely Pair: The Link Between Robberies in Idaho and U.S. Intercountry Adoptions

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Correlation ID: 3897 · Black Variable ID: 20185 · Red Variable ID: 216


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