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Spurious correlation #2,566 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is xkcd comics published about sarcasm and the second variable is BP's stock price (BP).  The chart goes from 2007 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

The decrease in xkcd comics about sarcasm led to a decrease in internet usage, reducing the demand for energy and ultimately causing BP's stock price to decrease. It's a classic case of sardonic stagnation in the stock market!

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that captures the essence of this prompt: Show a comic book store with a bright sign featuring the latest xkcd comic about sarcasm. The comic should depict a witty and sarcastic remark. Passersby should be depicted chuckling as they read the comic. In the background, include a large screen displaying the stock market, with a focus on BP's stock price. As the number of sarcastic xkcd comics in the store decreases, people around should be seen with puzzled expressions and the BP stock price should be depicted as steadily declining. This shift should reflect the changing attitudes towards sarcasm and its impact on BP's stock value. Ensure the details are clear and the interconnected narrative between the declining comic count and BP stock price is visually emphasized. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: a funny image macro Realistic Cybernetic art Oragami a meme
ChatGPT: a funny image macro

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP), in the following situation: As the number of sarcastic xkcd comics decreased, so did the overall sarcasm in the world. With less sarcasm, people took BP's stock price more seriously, leading to a decrease in its value.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In the scene, there is a comic book store with a sign showcasing the latest xkcd comic about sarcasm. The comic features a witty and sarcastic remark. People passing by are seen chuckling as they read the comic. Meanwhile, in the background, there is a large screen displaying the stock market, specifically BP's stock price. As the number of sarcastic xkcd comics decreases, the comic book store's window displays fewer sarcastic comics, and the people around are seen with puzzled expressions. Simultaneously, the BP stock price on the screen begins to steadily decline, reflecting the shift in the world's attitude towards sarcasm and the resulting impact on BP's stock value.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ a funny image macro ] and depicting this scene: In the scene, there is a comic book store with a sign showcasing the latest xkcd comic about sarcasm. The comic features a witty and sarcastic remark. People passing by are seen chuckling as they read the comic. Meanwhile, in the background, there is a large screen displaying the stock market, specifically BP's stock price. As the number of sarcastic xkcd comics decreases, the comic book store's window displays fewer sarcastic comics, and the people around are seen with puzzled expressions. Simultaneously, the BP stock price on the screen begins to steadily decline, reflecting the shift in the world's attitude towards sarcasm and the resulting impact on BP's stock value. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that captures the essence of this prompt: Show a comic book store with a bright sign featuring the latest xkcd comic about sarcasm. The comic should depict a witty and sarcastic remark. Passersby should be depicted chuckling as they read the comic. In the background, include a large screen displaying the stock market, with a focus on BP's stock price. As the number of sarcastic xkcd comics in the store decreases, people around should be seen with puzzled expressions and the BP stock price should be depicted as steadily declining. This shift should reflect the changing attitudes towards sarcasm and its impact on BP's stock value. Ensure the details are clear and the interconnected narrative between the declining comic count and BP stock price is visually emphasized.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in xkcd comics published about sarcasm caused BP's stock price (BP) to decrease. Add a funny one-liner at the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price

The Journal of Satirical Finance

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title punny if you can come up with clever pun. If not, make it sound serious.

Your research team used data from AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and p < 0.01 for 2007 to 2023.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
INTRODUCTION

The intertwining of humor and finance is a topic one might expect to find in an xkcd comic itself, yet here we are, embarking on a serious exploration of the potential connection between sarcasm-laden xkcd comics and the stock price of BP. As much as we appreciate a good pun or witty remark, this investigation is not an April Fools' Day prank; rather, it represents a unique attempt to apply quantitative analysis to the ever-enigmatic world of humor and its impact on financial markets.

Humor, often considered a trivial pursuit in the realm of analytical research, has nonetheless been the subject of scholarly inquiry for centuries. From the lighthearted jests of Plato to the satirical musings of Swift, the world of comedy has persisted as a subject of fascination for philosophers and social scientists alike. Despite its apparent irrelevance to the serious matter of financial analysis, the question of whether humor, particularly sarcasm, can influence the behavior of stock prices has persisted in the zeitgeist.

Meanwhile, the stock market, a realm where serious expressions and minute scrutinies reign supreme, seldom exhibits an open disposition to levity. However, the alleged effects of humor, specifically sarcasm, on stock prices have emerged as a subject of ongoing speculation, especially in the era of social media and digital communication. The influence of social discourse, through mediums such as webcomics, on market trends has remained largely unexplored, prompting an inquiry into the potential impact of sarcastic content on the behavior of stock prices.

As we delve into this unorthodox investigation, it is crucial to acknowledge the propensity for random chance to produce spurious correlations and causations. The age-old adage "correlation does not imply causation" will undoubtedly accompany our analysis, reminding us of the nuanced and multifaceted nature of statistical relationships. However, armed with advanced AI analysis and refined statistical methods, we aim to disentangle the potential associations between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuations in BP's stock price with the precision and thoroughness expected in rigorous research.

With this peculiar pairing of xkcd and BP's stock price, we embark on a journey to uncover the unexpected and, quite possibly, the comedic in the context of financial analysis. It is our hope that this study will illuminate the often-overlooked dynamics of humorous content within the seemingly humorless domain of stock market analysis. And who knows, with a dash of wit and a sprinkle of data, we may just stumble upon a punchline hidden in the trends of BP's stock price.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then you might move on to cartoons and children's shows that you watched for research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
The intertwining of humor and finance is a topic one might expect to find in an xkcd comic itself, yet here we are, embarking on a serious exploration of the potential connection between sarcasm-laden xkcd comics and the stock price of BP. As much as we appreciate a good pun or witty remark, this investigation is not an April Fools' Day prank; rather, it represents a unique attempt to apply quantitative analysis to the ever-enigmatic world of humor and its impact on financial markets.
Humor, often considered a trivial pursuit in the realm of analytical research, has nonetheless been the subject of scholarly inquiry for centuries. From the lighthearted jests of Plato to the satirical musings of Swift, the world of comedy has persisted as a subject of fascination for philosophers and social scientists alike. Despite its apparent irrelevance to the serious matter of financial analysis, the question of whether humor, particularly sarcasm, can influence the behavior of stock prices has persisted in the zeitgeist.
Meanwhile, the stock market, a realm where serious expressions and minute scrutinies reign supreme, seldom exhibits an open disposition to levity. However, the alleged effects of humor, specifically sarcasm, on stock prices have emerged as a subject of ongoing speculation, especially in the era of social media and digital communication. The influence of social discourse, through mediums such as webcomics, on market trends has remained largely unexplored, prompting an inquiry into the potential impact of sarcastic content on the behavior of stock prices.
As we delve into this unorthodox investigation, it is crucial to acknowledge the propensity for random chance to produce spurious correlations and causations. The age-old adage "correlation does not imply causation" will undoubtedly accompany our analysis, reminding us of the nuanced and multifaceted nature of statistical relationships. However, armed with advanced AI analysis and refined statistical methods, we aim to disentangle the potential associations between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuations in BP's stock price with the precision and thoroughness expected in rigorous research.
With this peculiar pairing of xkcd and BP's stock price, we embark on a journey to uncover the unexpected and, quite possibly, the comedic in the context of financial analysis. It is our hope that this study will illuminate the often-overlooked dynamics of humorous content within the seemingly humorless domain of stock market analysis. And who knows, with a dash of wit and a sprinkle of data, we may just stumble upon a punchline hidden in the trends of BP's stock price.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

As we delve into the intersection of humor and finance, it is essential to review the existing literature on comedy's potential impact on market dynamics. Traditional research may not have explored the exact correlation between xkcd comics and stock prices, but various studies have provided valuable insights into the broader relationship between humor and financial markets.

Smith et al. (2017) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the effects of humor in advertising on consumer behavior, emphasizing the potential influence of comedic content on purchasing decisions. While their focus was on consumer behavior, their findings shed light on the broader implications of humor in shaping individuals' perceptions and actions in response to various stimuli.

Doe and Jones (2019) explored the psychological mechanisms underlying individuals' responses to humor in the workplace, uncovering the positive impacts of humor on workplace satisfaction and team cohesion. Although their study did not directly address financial markets, it points to the pervasive influence of humor on individuals' decision-making processes and interpersonal interactions – factors that can extend to the domain of stock trading and market dynamics.

In "Humor and Human Behavior" by Laughing (2005), the author delves into the evolutionary and sociocultural aspects of humor, highlighting its role in shaping human behavior and social interactions. While the focus of the book is broad, its insights into the pervasive nature of humor and its impact on human behavior provide an important backdrop for understanding the potential influence of humor in the financial realm.

Moving beyond traditional academic works, the realm of fiction also offers intriguing glimpses into the interplay of humor and business. In "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" by Adams (1979), the absurd and comical portrayal of interstellar bureaucracy and corporate inefficiency offers a satirical lens through which to examine the complexities of financial systems. While the book may seem far-removed from the world of finance, its humorous commentary on bureaucracy and decision-making processes resonates with the challenges faced in financial markets.

Similarly, in the realm of cartoons and children's programming, the portrayal of business and finance often veers into amusing and whimsical territory. In "The Simpsons," the character Montgomery Burns, with his exaggerated greed and cartoonish corporate misadventures, serves as a comic caricature of corporate tycoons, offering a humorous reflection of the sometimes-murky world of business and finance.

With this eclectic array of literature as our backdrop, we set out to unravel the potential connection between the wry wit of xkcd comics and the ebbs and flows of BP's stock price. While the path to understanding this unlikely duo may seem unconventional, the unexpected can often lead to groundbreaking revelations – or at the very least, a good laugh.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2007 to 2023

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
The intertwining of humor and finance is a topic one might expect to find in an xkcd comic itself, yet here we are, embarking on a serious exploration of the potential connection between sarcasm-laden xkcd comics and the stock price of BP. As much as we appreciate a good pun or witty remark, this investigation is not an April Fools' Day prank; rather, it represents a unique attempt to apply quantitative analysis to the ever-enigmatic world of humor and its impact on financial markets.
Humor, often considered a trivial pursuit in the realm of analytical research, has nonetheless been the subject of scholarly inquiry for centuries. From the lighthearted jests of Plato to the satirical musings of Swift, the world of comedy has persisted as a subject of fascination for philosophers and social scientists alike. Despite its apparent irrelevance to the serious matter of financial analysis, the question of whether humor, particularly sarcasm, can influence the behavior of stock prices has persisted in the zeitgeist.
Meanwhile, the stock market, a realm where serious expressions and minute scrutinies reign supreme, seldom exhibits an open disposition to levity. However, the alleged effects of humor, specifically sarcasm, on stock prices have emerged as a subject of ongoing speculation, especially in the era of social media and digital communication. The influence of social discourse, through mediums such as webcomics, on market trends has remained largely unexplored, prompting an inquiry into the potential impact of sarcastic content on the behavior of stock prices.
As we delve into this unorthodox investigation, it is crucial to acknowledge the propensity for random chance to produce spurious correlations and causations. The age-old adage "correlation does not imply causation" will undoubtedly accompany our analysis, reminding us of the nuanced and multifaceted nature of statistical relationships. However, armed with advanced AI analysis and refined statistical methods, we aim to disentangle the potential associations between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuations in BP's stock price with the precision and thoroughness expected in rigorous research.
With this peculiar pairing of xkcd and BP's stock price, we embark on a journey to uncover the unexpected and, quite possibly, the comedic in the context of financial analysis. It is our hope that this study will illuminate the often-overlooked dynamics of humorous content within the seemingly humorless domain of stock market analysis. And who knows, with a dash of wit and a sprinkle of data, we may just stumble upon a punchline hidden in the trends of BP's stock price.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To investigate the potential relationship between xkcd comics featuring sarcasm and BP's stock price, a multi-faceted approach was adopted, blending advanced computational analysis with traditional statistical methods. The data for xkcd comics were sourced from the comprehensive xkcd database, boasting a trove of over 2300 comics. These comics were then subjected to a rigorous AI analysis employing natural language processing techniques to detect instances of sarcasm with a precision that even the most discerning of stand-up comedians would envy.

The subsequent step involved the selection and procurement of historical stock price data for BP from the esteemed LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv). This data spanned the years 2007 to 2023, offering a panoramic view of the tumultuous undulations of the stock market. While the stock prices underwent their cyclical dance, the xkcd comics were scrutinized for their sardonic undertones with a keen eye for subtlety, leaving no witticism unturned.

With both datasets in hand, the convergence of humor and finance took center stage. Employing sophisticated statistical software, the analysis began with the exploration of temporal patterns, seeking to discern any synchronicity between the publication of sarcastic xkcd comics and consequent movements in BP's stock price. This phase involved complex time series analyses, encompassing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and Fourier transforms, relatively uncharted territories in the realm of financial humor inquiries.

Furthermore, a meticulous examination of the frequency of sarcasm in xkcd comics and its potential impact on BP's stock price involved constructing a sentiment index akin to the VIX volatility index. This entailed quantifying the comedic effect of each comic and tracing its potential reverberations in the stock market, akin to capturing the faint echoes of laughter in a bustling marketplace.

To complement the temporal analysis, a cross-sectional approach was adopted, disentangling the geographical and thematic dimensions of the xkcd comics. Here, the whimsical landscapes of xkcd were geographically mapped, and the prevalence of sarcasm in different themes was assessed to discern any regional or thematic peculiarities that might resonate with the ebb and flow of BP's stock price.

Lastly, to account for potential confounding variables and lurking spurious correlations, extensive robustness checks were conducted. Sensitivity analyses akin to comedic timing were performed, scrutinizing the robustness of the observed relationship under diverse methodological choices and jest dynamics, ensuring that the findings were not mere facetious fancies.

In this manner, the methodology aimed to adopt a comprehensive and innovative approach, amalgamating the worlds of humor and finance in an analytical pas de deux, in pursuit of revealing any discernible link between the world of sarcastic xkcd comics and the capricious gyrations of BP's stock price.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .

For the time period 2007 to 2023, you found a correlation 0.8630717, r-squared of 0.7448928, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
INTRODUCTION
The intertwining of humor and finance is a topic one might expect to find in an xkcd comic itself, yet here we are, embarking on a serious exploration of the potential connection between sarcasm-laden xkcd comics and the stock price of BP. As much as we appreciate a good pun or witty remark, this investigation is not an April Fools' Day prank; rather, it represents a unique attempt to apply quantitative analysis to the ever-enigmatic world of humor and its impact on financial markets.
Humor, often considered a trivial pursuit in the realm of analytical research, has nonetheless been the subject of scholarly inquiry for centuries. From the lighthearted jests of Plato to the satirical musings of Swift, the world of comedy has persisted as a subject of fascination for philosophers and social scientists alike. Despite its apparent irrelevance to the serious matter of financial analysis, the question of whether humor, particularly sarcasm, can influence the behavior of stock prices has persisted in the zeitgeist.
Meanwhile, the stock market, a realm where serious expressions and minute scrutinies reign supreme, seldom exhibits an open disposition to levity. However, the alleged effects of humor, specifically sarcasm, on stock prices have emerged as a subject of ongoing speculation, especially in the era of social media and digital communication. The influence of social discourse, through mediums such as webcomics, on market trends has remained largely unexplored, prompting an inquiry into the potential impact of sarcastic content on the behavior of stock prices.
As we delve into this unorthodox investigation, it is crucial to acknowledge the propensity for random chance to produce spurious correlations and causations. The age-old adage "correlation does not imply causation" will undoubtedly accompany our analysis, reminding us of the nuanced and multifaceted nature of statistical relationships. However, armed with advanced AI analysis and refined statistical methods, we aim to disentangle the potential associations between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuations in BP's stock price with the precision and thoroughness expected in rigorous research.
With this peculiar pairing of xkcd and BP's stock price, we embark on a journey to uncover the unexpected and, quite possibly, the comedic in the context of financial analysis. It is our hope that this study will illuminate the often-overlooked dynamics of humorous content within the seemingly humorless domain of stock market analysis. And who knows, with a dash of wit and a sprinkle of data, we may just stumble upon a punchline hidden in the trends of BP's stock price.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

Our investigation into the potential relationship between xkcd comics featuring sarcasm and the stock price of BP yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8630717, an r-squared value of 0.7448928, and a p-value of less than 0.01. These findings suggest a strong and statistically significant association between the presence of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the movements of BP's stock price over the period of 2007 to 2023.

The correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 indicates a robust positive relationship between the variables, implying that as the frequency of sarcasm in xkcd comics increased, there was a corresponding tendency for BP's stock price to exhibit certain patterns. The high r-squared value of 0.7448928 further confirms that a substantial proportion of the variability in BP's stock price can be explained by the occurrence of sarcastic content in xkcd comics. These results provide compelling evidence of a connection that may have previously been overlooked or dismissed as mere coincidence.

The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually depicts the strong correlation between the two variables, reinforcing the numeric findings with a graphic representation of the data. The scatterplot serves as a striking visual testament to the unexpected confluence of humor and finance, prompting contemplation on the potentially whimsical nature of market trends.

It is worth noting that while our findings unveil a noteworthy correlation, they do not imply a causative relationship between xkcd comics on sarcasm and BP's stock price. As proponents of rigorous and cautious inquiry, we recognize the possibility of confounding variables or serendipitous correlations driving our results. However, the strength and consistency of the observed association warrant further investigation into the underlying mechanisms and implications of humor's influence on market dynamics.

The far-reaching implications of our findings extend beyond the narrow confines of xkcd and BP, shining a light on the often overlooked role of humor in the serious world of financial analysis. Our results beckon for a deeper exploration of the interplay between seemingly incongruous elements, inviting researchers to consider the playful undercurrents that may subtly shape market behavior. This unexpected correlation serves as a reminder that even in the most serious of arenas, a touch of whimsy may hold unforeseen significance—a comedic twist amidst the substantive data of empirical inquiry.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
As we delve into the intersection of humor and finance, it is essential to review the existing literature on comedy's potential impact on market dynamics. Traditional research may not have explored the exact correlation between xkcd comics and stock prices, but various studies have provided valuable insights into the broader relationship between humor and financial markets.
Smith et al. (2017) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the effects of humor in advertising on consumer behavior, emphasizing the potential influence of comedic content on purchasing decisions. While their focus was on consumer behavior, their findings shed light on the broader implications of humor in shaping individuals' perceptions and actions in response to various stimuli.
Doe and Jones (2019) explored the psychological mechanisms underlying individuals' responses to humor in the workplace, uncovering the positive impacts of humor on workplace satisfaction and team cohesion. Although their study did not directly address financial markets, it points to the pervasive influence of humor on individuals' decision-making processes and interpersonal interactions – factors that can extend to the domain of stock trading and market dynamics.
In "Humor and Human Behavior" by Laughing (2005), the author delves into the evolutionary and sociocultural aspects of humor, highlighting its role in shaping human behavior and social interactions. While the focus of the book is broad, its insights into the pervasive nature of humor and its impact on human behavior provide an important backdrop for understanding the potential influence of humor in the financial realm.
Moving beyond traditional academic works, the realm of fiction also offers intriguing glimpses into the interplay of humor and business. In "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" by Adams (1979), the absurd and comical portrayal of interstellar bureaucracy and corporate inefficiency offers a satirical lens through which to examine the complexities of financial systems. While the book may seem far-removed from the world of finance, its humorous commentary on bureaucracy and decision-making processes resonates with the challenges faced in financial markets.
Similarly, in the realm of cartoons and children's programming, the portrayal of business and finance often veers into amusing and whimsical territory. In "The Simpsons," the character Montgomery Burns, with his exaggerated greed and cartoonish corporate misadventures, serves as a comic caricature of corporate tycoons, offering a humorous reflection of the sometimes-murky world of business and finance.
With this eclectic array of literature as our backdrop, we set out to unravel the potential connection between the wry wit of xkcd comics and the ebbs and flows of BP's stock price. While the path to understanding this unlikely duo may seem unconventional, the unexpected can often lead to groundbreaking revelations – or at the very least, a good laugh.

[[RESULTS]]
Our investigation into the potential relationship between xkcd comics featuring sarcasm and the stock price of BP yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8630717, an r-squared value of 0.7448928, and a p-value of less than 0.01. These findings suggest a strong and statistically significant association between the presence of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the movements of BP's stock price over the period of 2007 to 2023.
The correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 indicates a robust positive relationship between the variables, implying that as the frequency of sarcasm in xkcd comics increased, there was a corresponding tendency for BP's stock price to exhibit certain patterns. The high r-squared value of 0.7448928 further confirms that a substantial proportion of the variability in BP's stock price can be explained by the occurrence of sarcastic content in xkcd comics. These results provide compelling evidence of a connection that may have previously been overlooked or dismissed as mere coincidence.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually depicts the strong correlation between the two variables, reinforcing the numeric findings with a graphic representation of the data. The scatterplot serves as a striking visual testament to the unexpected confluence of humor and finance, prompting contemplation on the potentially whimsical nature of market trends.
It is worth noting that while our findings unveil a noteworthy correlation, they do not imply a causative relationship between xkcd comics on sarcasm and BP's stock price. As proponents of rigorous and cautious inquiry, we recognize the possibility of confounding variables or serendipitous correlations driving our results. However, the strength and consistency of the observed association warrant further investigation into the underlying mechanisms and implications of humor's influence on market dynamics.
The far-reaching implications of our findings extend beyond the narrow confines of xkcd and BP, shining a light on the often overlooked role of humor in the serious world of financial analysis. Our results beckon for a deeper exploration of the interplay between seemingly incongruous elements, inviting researchers to consider the playful undercurrents that may subtly shape market behavior. This unexpected correlation serves as a reminder that even in the most serious of arenas, a touch of whimsy may hold unforeseen significance—a comedic twist amidst the substantive data of empirical inquiry.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The revelation of a significant and robust correlation between xkcd's portrayal of sarcasm and the fluctuation of BP's stock price raises thought-provoking questions about the broader impact of humor on market dynamics. Our results not only echo but also extend the prior research in unexpected ways.

Building on the insights of Smith et al. (2017), our findings align with the notion that comedic content, even in unconventional forms such as webcomics, can exert an unforeseen influence on individuals' perceptions and decision-making processes, a phenomenon that evidently extends to the domain of stock trading and market behavior. This resonates with Doe and Jones' (2019) exploration of humor's positive effects on workplace dynamics, albeit in a more lighthearted and unexpected setting, where the "workplace" in question encompasses the whimsical world of internet humor and the financial markets.

Moreover, our results lend empirical support to Laughing's (2005) assertion regarding the pervasive nature of humor in shaping human behavior, as they reveal the surprising intersection between the seemingly lighthearted realm of webcomics and the intricate mechanisms of stock price movements. The unexpected correlation uncovered in our study underscores the profound and often overlooked impact of humor within the serious realm of financial analysis, demonstrating that the playful undercurrents of human behavior can yield tangible market effects.

In a manner that is not unlike the satirical lens through which Adams (1979) portrayed the complexities of financial systems, our findings offer a whimsical yet substantive perspective on the interconnectedness of humor and market dynamics. The discovery of a robust relationship between xkcd's sarcasm and BP's stock price serves as a testament to the unforeseen significance of playful elements within the data-driven landscape of empirical inquiry, reinforcing the notion that even the most unexpected correlations can yield valuable insights. As we move forward, our research beckons for a closer examination of the mechanisms through which humor intertwines with market behavior, embracing the playful possibilities that may lie at the heart of financial analysis.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between xkcd comics published about sarcasm and BP's stock price (BP). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
The intertwining of humor and finance is a topic one might expect to find in an xkcd comic itself, yet here we are, embarking on a serious exploration of the potential connection between sarcasm-laden xkcd comics and the stock price of BP. As much as we appreciate a good pun or witty remark, this investigation is not an April Fools' Day prank; rather, it represents a unique attempt to apply quantitative analysis to the ever-enigmatic world of humor and its impact on financial markets.
Humor, often considered a trivial pursuit in the realm of analytical research, has nonetheless been the subject of scholarly inquiry for centuries. From the lighthearted jests of Plato to the satirical musings of Swift, the world of comedy has persisted as a subject of fascination for philosophers and social scientists alike. Despite its apparent irrelevance to the serious matter of financial analysis, the question of whether humor, particularly sarcasm, can influence the behavior of stock prices has persisted in the zeitgeist.
Meanwhile, the stock market, a realm where serious expressions and minute scrutinies reign supreme, seldom exhibits an open disposition to levity. However, the alleged effects of humor, specifically sarcasm, on stock prices have emerged as a subject of ongoing speculation, especially in the era of social media and digital communication. The influence of social discourse, through mediums such as webcomics, on market trends has remained largely unexplored, prompting an inquiry into the potential impact of sarcastic content on the behavior of stock prices.
As we delve into this unorthodox investigation, it is crucial to acknowledge the propensity for random chance to produce spurious correlations and causations. The age-old adage "correlation does not imply causation" will undoubtedly accompany our analysis, reminding us of the nuanced and multifaceted nature of statistical relationships. However, armed with advanced AI analysis and refined statistical methods, we aim to disentangle the potential associations between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuations in BP's stock price with the precision and thoroughness expected in rigorous research.
With this peculiar pairing of xkcd and BP's stock price, we embark on a journey to uncover the unexpected and, quite possibly, the comedic in the context of financial analysis. It is our hope that this study will illuminate the often-overlooked dynamics of humorous content within the seemingly humorless domain of stock market analysis. And who knows, with a dash of wit and a sprinkle of data, we may just stumble upon a punchline hidden in the trends of BP's stock price.

[[RESULTS]]
Our investigation into the potential relationship between xkcd comics featuring sarcasm and the stock price of BP yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8630717, an r-squared value of 0.7448928, and a p-value of less than 0.01. These findings suggest a strong and statistically significant association between the presence of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the movements of BP's stock price over the period of 2007 to 2023.
The correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 indicates a robust positive relationship between the variables, implying that as the frequency of sarcasm in xkcd comics increased, there was a corresponding tendency for BP's stock price to exhibit certain patterns. The high r-squared value of 0.7448928 further confirms that a substantial proportion of the variability in BP's stock price can be explained by the occurrence of sarcastic content in xkcd comics. These results provide compelling evidence of a connection that may have previously been overlooked or dismissed as mere coincidence.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually depicts the strong correlation between the two variables, reinforcing the numeric findings with a graphic representation of the data. The scatterplot serves as a striking visual testament to the unexpected confluence of humor and finance, prompting contemplation on the potentially whimsical nature of market trends.
It is worth noting that while our findings unveil a noteworthy correlation, they do not imply a causative relationship between xkcd comics on sarcasm and BP's stock price. As proponents of rigorous and cautious inquiry, we recognize the possibility of confounding variables or serendipitous correlations driving our results. However, the strength and consistency of the observed association warrant further investigation into the underlying mechanisms and implications of humor's influence on market dynamics.
The far-reaching implications of our findings extend beyond the narrow confines of xkcd and BP, shining a light on the often overlooked role of humor in the serious world of financial analysis. Our results beckon for a deeper exploration of the interplay between seemingly incongruous elements, inviting researchers to consider the playful undercurrents that may subtly shape market behavior. This unexpected correlation serves as a reminder that even in the most serious of arenas, a touch of whimsy may hold unforeseen significance—a comedic twist amidst the substantive data of empirical inquiry.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our foray into the capricious convergence of xkcd sarcasm and BP's stock price has yielded remarkably compelling results, much like stumbling upon a buried treasure in the treasure map of empirical inquiry. The robust correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and p-value of less than 0.01 embark on uncharted territory where humor and finance collide, unlocking the curious potential influence of witty webcomics on market dynamics. It's as though the stock market and sarcastic comics have engaged in an intricate dance, demonstrating that perhaps there is a punchline lurking within the data points and fluctuating stock prices.

However, while the statistical linkage between the two variables is reminiscent of a well-crafted joke, we must heed the cautionary tales of confounding variables and spurious correlations. As much as we'd like to envision a world where stock prices dance in rhythm to the wit of webcomics, we acknowledge the need for prudence in attributing causality to this association.

Nevertheless, it seems that this unlikely duo of humor and finance has cast a humorous spell on our research, tempting us to embrace the delightful absurdity in the world of financial analysis. As we tread the thin line between scientific rigor and whimsical discovery, it's clear that further investigation is warranted to unravel the intricacies of this peculiar connection.

In light of these findings, it stands to reason that no more research is needed in this domain, as we have perhaps uncovered the hidden merriment nestled within the serious facade of market analysis. The tale of xkcd comics and BP's stock price may indeed unravel as a whimsical anecdote in the grand narrative of empirical exploration – a delightful diversion amidst the weighty tomes of statistical scrutiny.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Satirical Finance


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The International Society for Irony and Financial Markets


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Sarcasm and Stock: An Unlikely Duo - Exploring the Correlation Between xkcd Comics on Sarcasm and BP's Stock Price with an abstract of In this study, we delve into the uncharted territory of humor and finance by investigating the potential link between xkcd comics containing sarcasm and the stock price of BP. Leveraging advanced AI analysis of xkcd comics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we meticulously examined data from 2007 to 2023 to uncover any hidden connections between the two seemingly disparate domains. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8630717 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship between the portrayal of sarcasm in xkcd comics and the fluctuation of BP's stock price. This unexpected correlation raises intriguing questions about the impact of humorous content on market dynamics, shedding light on the playful influences lurking beneath the surface of financial analysis.

ChatGPT:

xkcd comics, sarcasm, BP stock price, correlation, humor and finance, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, AI analysis, market dynamics, financial analysis

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

xkcd comics published about sarcasm
Detailed data title: The number of xkcd comics published each year about sarcasm
Source: AI analysis of xkcd comics
Additional Info: I designed a Python workflow to perform OCR on every xkcd comic, feed that text into a large language model, and ask the model whether this comic was about the category named in the title.

See what else correlates with xkcd comics published about sarcasm

BP's stock price (BP)
Detailed data title: Opening price of BP p.l.c. (BP) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with BP's stock price (BP)

Correlation r = 0.8630717 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.7448928 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 74.5% of the change in the one variable (i.e., BP's stock price (BP)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., xkcd comics published about sarcasm) over the 17 years from 2007 through 2023.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 8.2E-6. 0.0000081779312857855150000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.86 in 0.00082% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 122,280 random variables You don't actually need 122 thousand variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 16 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 16 because we have two variables measured over a period of 17 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.65, 0.95 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
xkcd comics published about sarcasm (xkcd comics)16191113121361166131047342
BP's stock price (BP) (Stock price)67.2773.784759.344.943.7942.4548.4338.2130.838.142.0637.4738.0421.0926.6935




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([16,19,11,13,12,13,6,11,6,6,13,10,4,7,3,4,2,])
array_2 = np.array([67.27,73.78,47,59.3,44.9,43.79,42.45,48.43,38.21,30.8,38.1,42.06,37.47,38.04,21.09,26.69,35,])
array_1_name = "xkcd comics published about sarcasm"
array_2_name = "BP's stock price (BP)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

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Correlation ID: 2566 · Black Variable ID: 20018 · Red Variable ID: 1625
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