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Spurious correlation #3,729 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Rhett and the second variable is Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ).  The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

As the popularity of the name Rhett rose, more parents were subconsciously drawn to the idea of a sophisticated and charming Southern gentleman. This led to a spike in demand for fancy, upscale baby products, including decorative constellation-themed nursery items. With this increased demand for all things celestial, Constellation Brands, known for its star-studded lineup of beverages, saw a corresponding boost in stock price. It seems like naming your kid Rhett isn't just a decision, it's a stellar investment strategy!

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ A photo-realistic image ] In a vibrant and lively city scene, a towering billboard stands prominently, illuminated by the surrounding lights. The billboard proudly displays the name "Rhett" in sleek, modern lettering, accompanied by an array of thumbs-up emojis and enthusiastic exclamations, creating an air of excitement and endorsement. Meanwhile, set against the backdrop of the night sky, a striking constellation emerges as the stars align to form the elegant silhouette of a wine glass, subtly inferring the growing influence of the name trend on the flourishing popularity and consumption of wine. The interplay of the city's energy and the celestial formation symbolizes the burgeoning impact of the name "Rhett" on the rise of wine culture, reflecting the potential effect on Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) as it gleams brightly amid the cosmic display. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: A photo-realistic image A comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s Cyberpunk a funny image macro Surrealism
ChatGPT: A photo-realistic image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ), in the following situation: Because as the popularity of the first name Rhett increased, so did the number of people saying "Rhett's a great choice!" which subconsciously led to an increase in the consumption of alcoholic beverages, particularly wine from Constellation Brands. The boost in wine sales then caused their stock price to rise. It's a stellar example of how name trends can influence consumer behavior and, subsequently, stock market trends.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling city, a billboard proudly displays the name "Rhett" in bold, trendy lettering, surrounded by thumbs-up emojis and exclamations of "Rhett's a great choice!" Meanwhile, in the night sky above, the stars align to form the outline of a wine glass, symbolizing the influence of the name trend on the rise in popularity and consumption of wine, making Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) shine brightly.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A photo-realistic image ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling city, a billboard proudly displays the name "Rhett" in bold, trendy lettering, surrounded by thumbs-up emojis and exclamations of "Rhett's a great choice!" Meanwhile, in the night sky above, the stars align to form the outline of a wine glass, symbolizing the influence of the name trend on the rise in popularity and consumption of wine, making Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) shine brightly. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ A photo-realistic image ] In a vibrant and lively city scene, a towering billboard stands prominently, illuminated by the surrounding lights. The billboard proudly displays the name "Rhett" in sleek, modern lettering, accompanied by an array of thumbs-up emojis and enthusiastic exclamations, creating an air of excitement and endorsement. Meanwhile, set against the backdrop of the night sky, a striking constellation emerges as the stars align to form the elegant silhouette of a wine glass, subtly inferring the growing influence of the name trend on the flourishing popularity and consumption of wine. The interplay of the city's energy and the celestial formation symbolizes the burgeoning impact of the name "Rhett" on the rise of wine culture, reflecting the potential effect on Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) as it gleams brightly amid the cosmic display.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Rhett caused Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) to increase. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price

The Journal of Astrological Economics

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title seem clever.

Your research team used data from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and p < 0.01 for 2002 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

The notion of celestial bodies exerting an influence on human affairs has captivated the human imagination for centuries. From the zodiac to astrology, individuals have sought to find connections between distant stars and earthly events. In the field of economics and finance, such ideas have often been relegated to the realm of superstition and folklore. However, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the prepared mind," and it is with a prepared mind that we embark on a rather stellar exploration of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands.

Constellation Brands, a firm that has certainly made its mark on the adult beverage industry, seemed an appropriate subject for our investigation into this celestial affair. After all, what better match for exploring the "Rhett effect" than a company named after the very astronomical clusters we seek to connect to a naming trend? As we delve into the data, we find ourselves traversing a cosmic landscape of statistical analyses and econometric models, seeking to discern whether there exists a tangible correlation or whether we are merely chasing after shooting stars of mere coincidence.

The first name "Rhett," with its Southern charm and undeniable associations with certain cinematic characters, has enjoyed a varying degree of popularity in the United States over the years. Of course, it is quite the "Rhett-orical" question to ponder whether the name's cultural zeitgeist has had any impact on the stock market performance of a certain beverage conglomerate. In this pursuit of knowledge, we are compelled to harness the power of statistical tools and critical analysis, wielding them like telescopes to discern patterns in the seemingly infinite expanse of data.

In the pages that follow, we will steer through the celestial seas of data, navigating the numerical constellations and drawing parallels between the rise and fall of the name "Rhett" and the undulations of Constellation Brands' stock price. As we uncover the curious correlation unearthed by our rigorous analysis, we invite readers to ponder the cosmic dance between nomenclature and stock market performance. We shall endeavor to present our findings with the gravity they deserve, all the while allowing for the occasional astronomical pun to lighten the atmosphere. After all, when dealing with such enigmatic relationships, there's no harm in letting a bit of humor shine through like a distant star in the night sky.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading CVS receipts.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The notion of celestial bodies exerting an influence on human affairs has captivated the human imagination for centuries. From the zodiac to astrology, individuals have sought to find connections between distant stars and earthly events. In the field of economics and finance, such ideas have often been relegated to the realm of superstition and folklore. However, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the prepared mind," and it is with a prepared mind that we embark on a rather stellar exploration of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands.
Constellation Brands, a firm that has certainly made its mark on the adult beverage industry, seemed an appropriate subject for our investigation into this celestial affair. After all, what better match for exploring the "Rhett effect" than a company named after the very astronomical clusters we seek to connect to a naming trend? As we delve into the data, we find ourselves traversing a cosmic landscape of statistical analyses and econometric models, seeking to discern whether there exists a tangible correlation or whether we are merely chasing after shooting stars of mere coincidence.
The first name "Rhett," with its Southern charm and undeniable associations with certain cinematic characters, has enjoyed a varying degree of popularity in the United States over the years. Of course, it is quite the "Rhett-orical" question to ponder whether the name's cultural zeitgeist has had any impact on the stock market performance of a certain beverage conglomerate. In this pursuit of knowledge, we are compelled to harness the power of statistical tools and critical analysis, wielding them like telescopes to discern patterns in the seemingly infinite expanse of data.
In the pages that follow, we will steer through the celestial seas of data, navigating the numerical constellations and drawing parallels between the rise and fall of the name "Rhett" and the undulations of Constellation Brands' stock price. As we uncover the curious correlation unearthed by our rigorous analysis, we invite readers to ponder the cosmic dance between nomenclature and stock market performance. We shall endeavor to present our findings with the gravity they deserve, all the while allowing for the occasional astronomical pun to lighten the atmosphere. After all, when dealing with such enigmatic relationships, there's no harm in letting a bit of humor shine through like a distant star in the night sky.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Numerous studies have delved into the effects of cultural phenomena on consumer behavior and financial markets. Smith et al. (2010) found that societal trends can indeed impact stock prices, while Doe (2015) highlighted the influence of naming trends on consumer preferences. Additionally, Jones (2018) presented evidence of the psychological factors at play in market dynamics, shedding light on the complex interplay between human behavior and financial outcomes.

In "Astrology and Its Influence on Modern Society," the authors explore the enduring fascination with celestial bodies and their perceived impact on human affairs, providing a historical and sociocultural context for our investigation. Furthermore, "The Economics of Name Trends" presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of naming conventions on various aspects of consumer behavior, providing a theoretical foundation for our exploration.

Turning to works of fiction, "Stellar Destiny: A Tale of Celestial Influence" and "Astrological Adventures: Unraveling the Mysteries of the Zodiac" offer imaginative accounts of the potential connections between the cosmos and human destinies, albeit in a less empirical manner. These narratives, while not grounded in rigorous analysis, contribute to the pervasive allure of celestial influence and offer a creative backdrop for our more reality-based inquiries.

In a departure from traditional scholarly sources, the researcher encountered an unexpected trove of information while perusing popular culture artifacts. It was found that extensive evidence of the "Rhett effect" could be gleaned from CVS receipts, social media trends, and even the lyrics of certain country music ballads. While not conventional scholarly material, these sources provided invaluable insight into the widespread presence of the "Rhett effect" in the public arena.

In sum, the existing literature offers a rich tapestry of perspectives on the intersection of celestial phenomena, naming trends, and consumer behavior, providing a solid foundation for our investigation into the potential correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands. As we set forth on this celestial expedition, we take heed of the diverse insights gleaned from academic, fictional, and unconventional sources, endeavoring to shine a light on the enigmatic cosmic dance between nomenclature and market dynamics.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The notion of celestial bodies exerting an influence on human affairs has captivated the human imagination for centuries. From the zodiac to astrology, individuals have sought to find connections between distant stars and earthly events. In the field of economics and finance, such ideas have often been relegated to the realm of superstition and folklore. However, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the prepared mind," and it is with a prepared mind that we embark on a rather stellar exploration of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands.
Constellation Brands, a firm that has certainly made its mark on the adult beverage industry, seemed an appropriate subject for our investigation into this celestial affair. After all, what better match for exploring the "Rhett effect" than a company named after the very astronomical clusters we seek to connect to a naming trend? As we delve into the data, we find ourselves traversing a cosmic landscape of statistical analyses and econometric models, seeking to discern whether there exists a tangible correlation or whether we are merely chasing after shooting stars of mere coincidence.
The first name "Rhett," with its Southern charm and undeniable associations with certain cinematic characters, has enjoyed a varying degree of popularity in the United States over the years. Of course, it is quite the "Rhett-orical" question to ponder whether the name's cultural zeitgeist has had any impact on the stock market performance of a certain beverage conglomerate. In this pursuit of knowledge, we are compelled to harness the power of statistical tools and critical analysis, wielding them like telescopes to discern patterns in the seemingly infinite expanse of data.
In the pages that follow, we will steer through the celestial seas of data, navigating the numerical constellations and drawing parallels between the rise and fall of the name "Rhett" and the undulations of Constellation Brands' stock price. As we uncover the curious correlation unearthed by our rigorous analysis, we invite readers to ponder the cosmic dance between nomenclature and stock market performance. We shall endeavor to present our findings with the gravity they deserve, all the while allowing for the occasional astronomical pun to lighten the atmosphere. After all, when dealing with such enigmatic relationships, there's no harm in letting a bit of humor shine through like a distant star in the night sky.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The methodology employed in this study entailed a multifaceted approach to examining the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands. Data on the frequency of the name "Rhett" was obtained from the US Social Security Administration, while daily stock price information for Constellation Brands (STZ) was sourced from LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv). The study period covered the years 2002 to 2022, providing a robust dataset for analysis.

To quantify the popularity of the name "Rhett," the research team utilized a comprehensive dataset of registered births in the United States, encompassing a wide array of socioeconomic and demographic variables for the population. This dataset was processed using rigorous statistical techniques to establish the prevalence of the name "Rhett" over the study period. Notably, this process involved controlling for factors such as regional variations and cultural trends, ensuring that the analysis captured the true impact of the name's popularity on the broader population.

Concurrently, the stock price of Constellation Brands was subjected to thorough econometric modeling, employing time series analysis to identify patterns and trends within the financial data. This approach enabled the research team to discern any potential correlations between the fluctuations in the popularity of the name "Rhett" and the movements of Constellation Brands' stock price. Various statistical tests, including correlation analysis and regression modeling, were deployed to elucidate the strength and significance of any observed associations.

Furthermore, to account for potential confounding factors and ensure the robustness of the findings, supplementary analyses were conducted. These supplementary analyses involved examining the influence of macroeconomic indicators, industry-specific dynamics, and broader market trends on the stock price of Constellation Brands. By incorporating these additional variables, the research team aimed to isolate the unique impact of the name "Rhett" on the company's stock performance, disentangling it from extraneous influences.

It is worth noting that the methodology also integrated qualitative insights from social and cultural trends, offering a nuanced understanding of the contextual factors shaping the popularity of the name "Rhett." This qualitative dimension provided valuable context for interpreting the quantitative findings, enriching the analysis with a deeper appreciation of the cultural undercurrents influencing naming preferences and societal preferences.

Overall, the methodology adopted in this study was designed to provide a comprehensive and rigorous assessment of the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands, leveraging a blend of quantitative and qualitative approaches. The integration of multiple data sources and analytical techniques aimed to yield a thorough understanding of this celestial relationship, allowing for a robust evaluation of the "Rhett effect" on market dynamics.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .

For the time period 2002 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.9767734, r-squared of 0.9540863, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The notion of celestial bodies exerting an influence on human affairs has captivated the human imagination for centuries. From the zodiac to astrology, individuals have sought to find connections between distant stars and earthly events. In the field of economics and finance, such ideas have often been relegated to the realm of superstition and folklore. However, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the prepared mind," and it is with a prepared mind that we embark on a rather stellar exploration of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands.
Constellation Brands, a firm that has certainly made its mark on the adult beverage industry, seemed an appropriate subject for our investigation into this celestial affair. After all, what better match for exploring the "Rhett effect" than a company named after the very astronomical clusters we seek to connect to a naming trend? As we delve into the data, we find ourselves traversing a cosmic landscape of statistical analyses and econometric models, seeking to discern whether there exists a tangible correlation or whether we are merely chasing after shooting stars of mere coincidence.
The first name "Rhett," with its Southern charm and undeniable associations with certain cinematic characters, has enjoyed a varying degree of popularity in the United States over the years. Of course, it is quite the "Rhett-orical" question to ponder whether the name's cultural zeitgeist has had any impact on the stock market performance of a certain beverage conglomerate. In this pursuit of knowledge, we are compelled to harness the power of statistical tools and critical analysis, wielding them like telescopes to discern patterns in the seemingly infinite expanse of data.
In the pages that follow, we will steer through the celestial seas of data, navigating the numerical constellations and drawing parallels between the rise and fall of the name "Rhett" and the undulations of Constellation Brands' stock price. As we uncover the curious correlation unearthed by our rigorous analysis, we invite readers to ponder the cosmic dance between nomenclature and stock market performance. We shall endeavor to present our findings with the gravity they deserve, all the while allowing for the occasional astronomical pun to lighten the atmosphere. After all, when dealing with such enigmatic relationships, there's no harm in letting a bit of humor shine through like a distant star in the night sky.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The results of our analysis revealed a remarkably strong correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) over the period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 indicates a nearly perfect positive linear relationship between the two variables, highlighting a celestial connection that is truly out of this world. Furthermore, the coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.9540863 suggests that approximately 95.4% of the variability in Constellation Brands' stock price can be explained by the popularity of the name "Rhett." This astronomical level of explanatory power underscores the significance of our findings.

The p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis of no relationship between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price, further bolstering the case for a genuine association. The probability of observing such a strong correlation purely by chance is statistically improbable, pointing to a cosmic influence that transcends mere coincidence.

Figure 1 presents a scatterplot, visually depicting the striking correlation between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price. The plot illustrates a nearly perfect positive linear trend, resembling the trajectory of a comet hurtling through space. Each data point seems to twinkle like a distant star, as if to affirm the cosmic bond between these seemingly disparate variables. The visual representation provides a compelling glimpse into the celestial dance between nomenclature and market performance, inviting contemplation of the cosmic forces at play in the realm of finance.

In light of these findings, it is apparent that the "Rhett effect" may have cosmic implications for market dynamics. While the precise causal mechanism underlying this stellar relationship remains enigmatic, our study opens the door to a constellation of possibilities, underscoring the need for further exploration of celestial influences on consumer behavior and financial markets. The empirical evidence presented here encourages investors and researchers alike to ponder the celestial sway of nomenclature on market movements, making it clear that in the realm of finance, the stars may indeed hold sway over earthly affairs.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Numerous studies have delved into the effects of cultural phenomena on consumer behavior and financial markets. Smith et al. (2010) found that societal trends can indeed impact stock prices, while Doe (2015) highlighted the influence of naming trends on consumer preferences. Additionally, Jones (2018) presented evidence of the psychological factors at play in market dynamics, shedding light on the complex interplay between human behavior and financial outcomes.
In "Astrology and Its Influence on Modern Society," the authors explore the enduring fascination with celestial bodies and their perceived impact on human affairs, providing a historical and sociocultural context for our investigation. Furthermore, "The Economics of Name Trends" presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of naming conventions on various aspects of consumer behavior, providing a theoretical foundation for our exploration.
Turning to works of fiction, "Stellar Destiny: A Tale of Celestial Influence" and "Astrological Adventures: Unraveling the Mysteries of the Zodiac" offer imaginative accounts of the potential connections between the cosmos and human destinies, albeit in a less empirical manner. These narratives, while not grounded in rigorous analysis, contribute to the pervasive allure of celestial influence and offer a creative backdrop for our more reality-based inquiries.
In a departure from traditional scholarly sources, the researcher encountered an unexpected trove of information while perusing popular culture artifacts. It was found that extensive evidence of the "Rhett effect" could be gleaned from CVS receipts, social media trends, and even the lyrics of certain country music ballads. While not conventional scholarly material, these sources provided invaluable insight into the widespread presence of the "Rhett effect" in the public arena.
In sum, the existing literature offers a rich tapestry of perspectives on the intersection of celestial phenomena, naming trends, and consumer behavior, providing a solid foundation for our investigation into the potential correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands. As we set forth on this celestial expedition, we take heed of the diverse insights gleaned from academic, fictional, and unconventional sources, endeavoring to shine a light on the enigmatic cosmic dance between nomenclature and market dynamics.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis revealed a remarkably strong correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) over the period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 indicates a nearly perfect positive linear relationship between the two variables, highlighting a celestial connection that is truly out of this world. Furthermore, the coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.9540863 suggests that approximately 95.4% of the variability in Constellation Brands' stock price can be explained by the popularity of the name "Rhett." This astronomical level of explanatory power underscores the significance of our findings.
The p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis of no relationship between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price, further bolstering the case for a genuine association. The probability of observing such a strong correlation purely by chance is statistically improbable, pointing to a cosmic influence that transcends mere coincidence.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot, visually depicting the striking correlation between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price. The plot illustrates a nearly perfect positive linear trend, resembling the trajectory of a comet hurtling through space. Each data point seems to twinkle like a distant star, as if to affirm the cosmic bond between these seemingly disparate variables. The visual representation provides a compelling glimpse into the celestial dance between nomenclature and market performance, inviting contemplation of the cosmic forces at play in the realm of finance.
In light of these findings, it is apparent that the "Rhett effect" may have cosmic implications for market dynamics. While the precise causal mechanism underlying this stellar relationship remains enigmatic, our study opens the door to a constellation of possibilities, underscoring the need for further exploration of celestial influences on consumer behavior and financial markets. The empirical evidence presented here encourages investors and researchers alike to ponder the celestial sway of nomenclature on market movements, making it clear that in the realm of finance, the stars may indeed hold sway over earthly affairs.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of our investigation provide compelling support for the previously overlooked correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price. Building on the existing literature, which has hinted at the impact of cultural and naming trends on market dynamics, our findings suggest a celestial connection that defies conventional economic rationales. The strong correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and the p-value smaller than 0.01 serve as celestial beacons illuminating the cosmic bond between these variables, figuratively speaking.

While our study remains firmly grounded in statistical rigor, the findings seem to beckon us toward the starry realms of astrological inquiry, sparking the imagination with their celestial implications. The near-perfect positive linear relationship between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price invites contemplation of celestial forces at play in the financial cosmos, resembling the trajectory of a comet flying through the vast expanse of space. It seems that the "Rhett effect," like a constellation of statistical anomalies, exerts an otherworldly influence on market dynamics, leaving investors and researchers alike pondering the cosmic sway of nomenclature on earthly affairs.

The visual representation of the data in the form of a scatterplot, mirroring the twinkle of distant stars, adds a touch of celestial whimsy to our empirical journey. It is as if the data points themselves seek to affirm the astrologically tinged bond between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price, beckoning us to gaze toward the heavens for insight into the mysterious dance of market trends and human behavior.

In conclusion, our study offers a compelling glimpse into the celestial dance between nomenclature and market performance, suggesting a cosmic influence that transcends mere coincidence. These findings may leave investors starry-eyed, contemplating the depths of the galactic forces at play in the realm of finance. As we continue to navigate the celestial expanse of market dynamics, further exploration of celestial influences on consumer behavior and financial markets is warranted, offering a stellar opportunity for future research endeavors. After all, in the ethereal reaches of economic inquiry, it seems that the stars may indeed hold sway over earthly affairs.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Rhett and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The notion of celestial bodies exerting an influence on human affairs has captivated the human imagination for centuries. From the zodiac to astrology, individuals have sought to find connections between distant stars and earthly events. In the field of economics and finance, such ideas have often been relegated to the realm of superstition and folklore. However, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the prepared mind," and it is with a prepared mind that we embark on a rather stellar exploration of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and the stock price of Constellation Brands.
Constellation Brands, a firm that has certainly made its mark on the adult beverage industry, seemed an appropriate subject for our investigation into this celestial affair. After all, what better match for exploring the "Rhett effect" than a company named after the very astronomical clusters we seek to connect to a naming trend? As we delve into the data, we find ourselves traversing a cosmic landscape of statistical analyses and econometric models, seeking to discern whether there exists a tangible correlation or whether we are merely chasing after shooting stars of mere coincidence.
The first name "Rhett," with its Southern charm and undeniable associations with certain cinematic characters, has enjoyed a varying degree of popularity in the United States over the years. Of course, it is quite the "Rhett-orical" question to ponder whether the name's cultural zeitgeist has had any impact on the stock market performance of a certain beverage conglomerate. In this pursuit of knowledge, we are compelled to harness the power of statistical tools and critical analysis, wielding them like telescopes to discern patterns in the seemingly infinite expanse of data.
In the pages that follow, we will steer through the celestial seas of data, navigating the numerical constellations and drawing parallels between the rise and fall of the name "Rhett" and the undulations of Constellation Brands' stock price. As we uncover the curious correlation unearthed by our rigorous analysis, we invite readers to ponder the cosmic dance between nomenclature and stock market performance. We shall endeavor to present our findings with the gravity they deserve, all the while allowing for the occasional astronomical pun to lighten the atmosphere. After all, when dealing with such enigmatic relationships, there's no harm in letting a bit of humor shine through like a distant star in the night sky.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis revealed a remarkably strong correlation between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) over the period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 indicates a nearly perfect positive linear relationship between the two variables, highlighting a celestial connection that is truly out of this world. Furthermore, the coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.9540863 suggests that approximately 95.4% of the variability in Constellation Brands' stock price can be explained by the popularity of the name "Rhett." This astronomical level of explanatory power underscores the significance of our findings.
The p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis of no relationship between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price, further bolstering the case for a genuine association. The probability of observing such a strong correlation purely by chance is statistically improbable, pointing to a cosmic influence that transcends mere coincidence.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot, visually depicting the striking correlation between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price. The plot illustrates a nearly perfect positive linear trend, resembling the trajectory of a comet hurtling through space. Each data point seems to twinkle like a distant star, as if to affirm the cosmic bond between these seemingly disparate variables. The visual representation provides a compelling glimpse into the celestial dance between nomenclature and market performance, inviting contemplation of the cosmic forces at play in the realm of finance.
In light of these findings, it is apparent that the "Rhett effect" may have cosmic implications for market dynamics. While the precise causal mechanism underlying this stellar relationship remains enigmatic, our study opens the door to a constellation of possibilities, underscoring the need for further exploration of celestial influences on consumer behavior and financial markets. The empirical evidence presented here encourages investors and researchers alike to ponder the celestial sway of nomenclature on market movements, making it clear that in the realm of finance, the stars may indeed hold sway over earthly affairs.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our research has transcended the earthly realm to unearth a stellar relationship between the popularity of the name "Rhett" and Constellation Brands' stock price, shedding light on a celestial dance that may leave investors starry-eyed. The nearly perfect positive linear relationship between these variables sparkles like a celestial gem, underscoring the potential cosmic implications for market dynamics. While some may find it astronomically improbable, the evidence presented here convincingly points to a genuine association that defies the gravitational pull of mere coincidence. The striking correlation coefficient, reminiscent of a celestial alignment, suggests a celestial connection that is truly out of this world.

Figure 1 presents a cosmic tableau, with each data point twinkling like a distant star in the night sky, beckoning observers to contemplate the cosmic forces at play in the realm of finance. As we navigate the celestial seas of data to bring these findings to light, we cannot help but marvel at the cosmic dance between nomenclature and market performance. However, while this study has brought the celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics into focus, the precise causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains as enigmatic as a black hole.

In light of these findings, it seems that the "Rhett Effect" may indeed have celestial implications for market movements, as investors grapple with the enigmatic sway of nomenclature over earthly affairs. However, it's time to close the observation deck on this particular constellation of possibilities. No more research is needed in this area, for we have boldly gone where no researcher has gone before, reaching the cosmic limits of inquiry.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Astrological Economics


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Association for Celestial Etymology and Financial Analysis


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Rhett Effect: An Examination of the Stellar Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Rhett and Constellation Brands' Stock Price with an abstract of This paper investigates the hitherto unexplored link between the popularity of the first name "Rhett" in the United States and the stock price of Constellation Brands, a leading producer of beer, wine, and spirits. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, our research team conducted a rigorous analysis spanning the period from 2002 to 2022. Results from our econometric analysis reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9767734 and a p-value smaller than 0.01, indicating a robust and statistically significant relationship. While the causal mechanism behind this empirical association remains elusive, the findings suggest a potential celestial influence on consumer behavior and market dynamics. This study sheds light on a celestial connection that may leave investors starry-eyed, offering a novel perspective on the interplay between astrological trends and financial markets.

ChatGPT:

"Rhett" popularity, United States, first name, Social Security Administration, LSEG Analytics, stock price, Constellation Brands, beer, wine, spirits, econometric analysis, correlation coefficient, p-value, celestial influence, consumer behavior, market dynamics, astrological trends, financial markets, celestial connection, investor perspective, stellar relationship

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Popularity of the first name Rhett
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Rhett
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Rhett

Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Constellation Brands (STZ) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ)

Correlation r = 0.9767734 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.9540863 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 95.4% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Rhett) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 3.6E-14. 0.0000000000000358525977509670
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.98 in 3.6E-12% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 27,891,981,689,752 random variables You don't actually need 27 trillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.94, 0.99 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Popularity of the first name Rhett (Babies born)28628327730333033235438241145452769498613531784221823312411236425542507
Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ) (Stock price)10.7111.9316.4523.2626.3528.823.5915.8216.0222.1820.9635.9570.0298.71141.03155.01229160.06189.97220251.25




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([286,283,277,303,330,332,354,382,411,454,527,694,986,1353,1784,2218,2331,2411,2364,2554,2507,])
array_2 = np.array([10.71,11.93,16.45,23.26,26.35,28.8,23.59,15.82,16.02,22.18,20.96,35.95,70.02,98.71,141.03,155.01,229,160.06,189.97,220,251.25,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Rhett"
array_2_name = "Constellation Brands' stock price (STZ)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 3729 · Black Variable ID: 3287 · Red Variable ID: 1739
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