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Spurious correlation #4,599 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is American cheese consumption and the second variable is Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa.  The chart goes from 1990 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

As American cheese consumption in Iowa increased, so did votes for the Republican Presidential candidate. This could be due to the fact that American cheese is a classic, comforting dairy product, much like the traditional values often associated with the Republican party. Furthermore, the creamy, melty texture of American cheese may have subconsciously swayed individuals towards choosing a candidate who they perceived to be as smooth and consistent as the cheese itself. Lastly, the yellowish hue of American cheese could have inadvertently elicited thoughts of the party's iconic color, reinforcing voters' support. However, it's also possible that these correlations are purely coincidental, and there may be no direct causation between cheese consumption and political preferences.

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image capturing the scene of a cozy Iowa diner where people are savoring classic grilled cheese sandwiches, with the melted American cheese oozing out from the sides. In the background, a local TV station displays the votes being counted, showing the map of Iowa gradually turning a vibrant shade of Republican red. The image should be hyper-realistic, with attention to detail in capturing the warmth and comfort of the diner atmosphere and the anticipation of the election results on the TV screen. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Scalar art Data cyber art Hyper-realistic Cutsy graphics Low poly
ChatGPT: Hyper-realistic

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa, in the following situation: As American cheese consumption in Iowa increased, so did votes for the Republican Presidential candidate. This could be due to the fact that American cheese is a classic, comforting dairy product, much like the traditional values often associated with the Republican party. Furthermore, the creamy, melty texture of American cheese may have subconsciously swayed individuals towards choosing a candidate who they perceived to be as smooth and consistent as the cheese itself. Lastly, the yellowish hue of American cheese could have inadvertently elicited thoughts of the party's iconic color, reinforcing voters' support. However, it's also possible that these correlations are purely coincidental, and there may be no direct causation between cheese consumption and political preferences.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a cozy Iowa diner, people are enjoying classic grilled cheese sandwiches, with the melted American cheese oozing out from the sides. In the background, a local TV station shows the votes being counted, and the map of Iowa is gradually turning a vibrant shade of Republican red.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Hyper-realistic ] and depicting this scene: In a cozy Iowa diner, people are enjoying classic grilled cheese sandwiches, with the melted American cheese oozing out from the sides. In the background, a local TV station shows the votes being counted, and the map of Iowa is gradually turning a vibrant shade of Republican red. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image capturing the scene of a cozy Iowa diner where people are savoring classic grilled cheese sandwiches, with the melted American cheese oozing out from the sides. In the background, a local TV station displays the votes being counted, showing the map of Iowa gradually turning a vibrant shade of Republican red. The image should be hyper-realistic, with attention to detail in capturing the warmth and comfort of the diner atmosphere and the anticipation of the election results on the TV screen.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in American cheese consumption caused Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa to increase.\Make it sound serious until the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

The Journal of Dairy Politics and Culinary Sociology

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title seem clever.

Your research team used data from USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and p < 0.01 for 1990 to 2020.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
INTRODUCTION

The intersection of gastronomy and governance has long captivated the minds of researchers and policymakers, leading us to explore the unexpected relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. While some may perceive this inquiry as mere queso-dential speculation, our study aims to shed light on the mysterious interplay between dietary choices and political leanings, identifying potential avenues for future research and, dare I say, a few cheesy puns along the whey.

The state of Iowa, known for its picturesque landscapes and agricultural prowess, also holds a key position in the American political landscape due to its influential role in the presidential primary process. As the eyes of the nation turn to Iowa during each election cycle, it becomes imperative to understand the factors shaping the voting behaviors of its residents. A lesser-known aspect of Iowa's identity, its penchant for American cheese consumption, provides a quirky backdrop for this investigation into the electoral dynamics of the state.

In this study, we sought to analyze the extent to which American cheese consumption, a quintessentially American culinary staple, may be associated with votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. Leveraging comprehensive data spanning three decades and drawing upon the rigorous statistical methods, we intended to unravel the enigmatic connection between cheese and conservatism in the heartland of America. By undertaking this examination, we aim to add a slice of empirical evidence to the ongoing discourse on the quirky confluence of food preferences and political allegiances.

The present study's findings, cheddar or not cheese, revealed a striking correlation coefficient and a statistically significant p-value, challenging conventional wisdom about the rather gouda road that leads to the ballot box. As we delve into the labyrinth of statistical analyses and substantive interpretations, it is essential to recognize the novelty and potential FOMO (fear of missing out) in addressing the cheesy, yet thought-provoking, questions that lie at the crossroads of dietary habits and democratic decisions.

In the subsequent sections of this paper, we will systematically unravel the empirical findings, scrutinizing the association between American cheese consumption and the Republican vote in Iowa through a nuanced lens. Furthermore, we will offer conjectures about possible mechanisms underlying this connection, while acknowledging the "grate unknowns" that beckon further investigation. To sum it up, our study aims to add a touch of levity to the debate while remaining feta-st on the path to rigor and scholarly inquiry.

With that said, let us embark on this journey through the corridors of fromage and freedom, as we unravel the mystique of American cheese consumption in the political mosaic of Iowa.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Perhaps you also got inspiration from some board games that are vaugely related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
The intersection of gastronomy and governance has long captivated the minds of researchers and policymakers, leading us to explore the unexpected relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. While some may perceive this inquiry as mere queso-dential speculation, our study aims to shed light on the mysterious interplay between dietary choices and political leanings, identifying potential avenues for future research and, dare I say, a few cheesy puns along the whey.
The state of Iowa, known for its picturesque landscapes and agricultural prowess, also holds a key position in the American political landscape due to its influential role in the presidential primary process. As the eyes of the nation turn to Iowa during each election cycle, it becomes imperative to understand the factors shaping the voting behaviors of its residents. A lesser-known aspect of Iowa's identity, its penchant for American cheese consumption, provides a quirky backdrop for this investigation into the electoral dynamics of the state.
In this study, we sought to analyze the extent to which American cheese consumption, a quintessentially American culinary staple, may be associated with votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. Leveraging comprehensive data spanning three decades and drawing upon the rigorous statistical methods, we intended to unravel the enigmatic connection between cheese and conservatism in the heartland of America. By undertaking this examination, we aim to add a slice of empirical evidence to the ongoing discourse on the quirky confluence of food preferences and political allegiances.
The present study's findings, cheddar or not cheese, revealed a striking correlation coefficient and a statistically significant p-value, challenging conventional wisdom about the rather gouda road that leads to the ballot box. As we delve into the labyrinth of statistical analyses and substantive interpretations, it is essential to recognize the novelty and potential FOMO (fear of missing out) in addressing the cheesy, yet thought-provoking, questions that lie at the crossroads of dietary habits and democratic decisions.
In the subsequent sections of this paper, we will systematically unravel the empirical findings, scrutinizing the association between American cheese consumption and the Republican vote in Iowa through a nuanced lens. Furthermore, we will offer conjectures about possible mechanisms underlying this connection, while acknowledging the "grate unknowns" that beckon further investigation. To sum it up, our study aims to add a touch of levity to the debate while remaining feta-st on the path to rigor and scholarly inquiry.
With that said, let us embark on this journey through the corridors of fromage and freedom, as we unravel the mystique of American cheese consumption in the political mosaic of Iowa.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The relationship between dietary choices and political affiliations has garnered considerable attention in academic literature. Smith et al. (2010) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the connection between food preferences and voting behavior, but their study failed to delve into the intriguing realm of cheese-specific political tendencies. Similarly, Doe and Jones (2015) examined the influence of culinary traditions on political allegiances, yet they overlooked the potential impact of cheese consumption on electoral outcomes. However, our study aims to bridge this gap in the literature by exploring the unexpected correlation between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party in Iowa.

Adding a tangy twist to the discourse, "The Big Cheese: A Closer Look at American Dairy Products" by Dairy Association offers insight into the historical significance of American cheese consumption and its cultural resonance. On a more fictional note, works such as "The Cheesy Candidate: A Tale of Politics and Gouda" and "The Brie and the Ballot Box: A Dairy Dilemma" provide imaginative interpretations of the potential intersection between cheese and political preferences. While these sources may not offer empirical evidence, they contribute to the whimsical landscape of cheese-themed literature.

Drawing inspiration from unlikely sources, board games like "Cheeseopoly" and "Campaign Cracker: The Cheddar Chronicles" prompt playful contemplation of the interplay between cheese and political dynamics, offering a lighthearted approach to an otherwise serious subject matter. While these sources may not offer scholarly insights, they present a quirky perspective on the broader cultural fascination with cheese and its potential implications for political behavior.

As we embark on this scholarly odyssey through the annals of literature, it is crucial to approach the intersection of American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa with intellectual curiosity and a pinch of humor. The forthcoming sections of this paper will further unravel the enigmatic relationship between cheese and conservatism, shedding light on the unexpected implications of this unexplored territory. Stay tuned for more cheesy revelations ahead!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse . You used data from 1990 to 2020

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
The intersection of gastronomy and governance has long captivated the minds of researchers and policymakers, leading us to explore the unexpected relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. While some may perceive this inquiry as mere queso-dential speculation, our study aims to shed light on the mysterious interplay between dietary choices and political leanings, identifying potential avenues for future research and, dare I say, a few cheesy puns along the whey.
The state of Iowa, known for its picturesque landscapes and agricultural prowess, also holds a key position in the American political landscape due to its influential role in the presidential primary process. As the eyes of the nation turn to Iowa during each election cycle, it becomes imperative to understand the factors shaping the voting behaviors of its residents. A lesser-known aspect of Iowa's identity, its penchant for American cheese consumption, provides a quirky backdrop for this investigation into the electoral dynamics of the state.
In this study, we sought to analyze the extent to which American cheese consumption, a quintessentially American culinary staple, may be associated with votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. Leveraging comprehensive data spanning three decades and drawing upon the rigorous statistical methods, we intended to unravel the enigmatic connection between cheese and conservatism in the heartland of America. By undertaking this examination, we aim to add a slice of empirical evidence to the ongoing discourse on the quirky confluence of food preferences and political allegiances.
The present study's findings, cheddar or not cheese, revealed a striking correlation coefficient and a statistically significant p-value, challenging conventional wisdom about the rather gouda road that leads to the ballot box. As we delve into the labyrinth of statistical analyses and substantive interpretations, it is essential to recognize the novelty and potential FOMO (fear of missing out) in addressing the cheesy, yet thought-provoking, questions that lie at the crossroads of dietary habits and democratic decisions.
In the subsequent sections of this paper, we will systematically unravel the empirical findings, scrutinizing the association between American cheese consumption and the Republican vote in Iowa through a nuanced lens. Furthermore, we will offer conjectures about possible mechanisms underlying this connection, while acknowledging the "grate unknowns" that beckon further investigation. To sum it up, our study aims to add a touch of levity to the debate while remaining feta-st on the path to rigor and scholarly inquiry.
With that said, let us embark on this journey through the corridors of fromage and freedom, as we unravel the mystique of American cheese consumption in the political mosaic of Iowa.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

In order to investigate the correlation between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa, our research team employed a multi-faceted approach that was as meticulously planned as a perfectly crafted cheese board. We sought to carefully curate datasets from reputable sources, employing rigorous statistical analyses to slice through the layers of information with scientific precision.

Data Collection:
To better understand the cheesiness factor in Iowa’s political landscape, we conducted a thorough examination of publicly available data sources, treasuring every morsel of information we could find. The primary sources for our study were the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse—repositories of data deemed to be aged to perfection, much like a fine Gouda. We focused on data spanning the years 1990 to 2020, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of American cheese consumption and Republican votes over a substantial timeframe.

American Cheese Consumption Estimation:
To estimate American cheese consumption in Iowa, our team utilized a blend of sophisticated methodologies akin to a master cheesemaker’s secret recipe. We harnessed data on cheese production, consumption per capita, and culinary trends to produce a delectable estimate of the amount of American cheese devoured by Iowans. As we sifted through the data, we had to exercise caution not to get too emotionally involved with the cheese statistics, as it’s easy to get caught up in the enchanting aroma of dairy statistics.

Republican Votes Data Analysis:
In parallel, we combed through detailed election data, meticulously navigating the labyrinth of polling numbers and electoral outcomes. We worked tirelessly to ensure that our analyses were as sharp as a well-aged cheddar, meticulously cross-referencing voting patterns with demographic variables and electoral dynamics. This allowed us to thoroughly investigate the relationship between American cheese consumption and votes cast for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa, with unmatched precision.

Statistical Analysis:
Once we had gathered the data, we employed statistical techniques so robust that they could stand up to the most stringent palate. We calculated correlation coefficients, regression models, and hypothesis tests with an enthusiasm akin to that of a cheese aficionado at a fromagerie. Our approach was designed to ensure that our findings were both robust and flavorful, making our statistical analyses as compelling as a perfectly balanced cheese soufflé.

Data Validation and Limitations:
While we remain confident in the validity of our approach, it is essential to acknowledge the limitations of our study. The nature of observational data inherently carries certain complexities, much like the delicate nature of a perfectly aged Parmesan. Though we took numerous precautions to minimize confounding factors, we recognize that our findings are subject to potential omitted variable bias and other unobservable influences, not unlike the hidden flavors in a complex cheese platter.

Ethical Considerations:
Finally, in conducting this research, we upheld the highest standards of scientific ethics, ensuring that our methodologies were as pure as artisanal, farm-fresh goat cheese. We obtained all data in accordance with the regulations and guidelines set forth by the data providers, treating the data with the utmost respect and confidentiality, much like the guarded recipe for a legendary cheese spread.

In essence, our methodological approach sought to blend the curated precision of a gourmet cheese selection with the robustness of quantitative analysis, allowing us to uncover the ever-elusive connections between American cheese consumption and political inclinations in the heartland of Iowa.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse .

For the time period 1990 to 2020, you found a correlation 0.9472703, r-squared of 0.8973210, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
INTRODUCTION
The intersection of gastronomy and governance has long captivated the minds of researchers and policymakers, leading us to explore the unexpected relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. While some may perceive this inquiry as mere queso-dential speculation, our study aims to shed light on the mysterious interplay between dietary choices and political leanings, identifying potential avenues for future research and, dare I say, a few cheesy puns along the whey.
The state of Iowa, known for its picturesque landscapes and agricultural prowess, also holds a key position in the American political landscape due to its influential role in the presidential primary process. As the eyes of the nation turn to Iowa during each election cycle, it becomes imperative to understand the factors shaping the voting behaviors of its residents. A lesser-known aspect of Iowa's identity, its penchant for American cheese consumption, provides a quirky backdrop for this investigation into the electoral dynamics of the state.
In this study, we sought to analyze the extent to which American cheese consumption, a quintessentially American culinary staple, may be associated with votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. Leveraging comprehensive data spanning three decades and drawing upon the rigorous statistical methods, we intended to unravel the enigmatic connection between cheese and conservatism in the heartland of America. By undertaking this examination, we aim to add a slice of empirical evidence to the ongoing discourse on the quirky confluence of food preferences and political allegiances.
The present study's findings, cheddar or not cheese, revealed a striking correlation coefficient and a statistically significant p-value, challenging conventional wisdom about the rather gouda road that leads to the ballot box. As we delve into the labyrinth of statistical analyses and substantive interpretations, it is essential to recognize the novelty and potential FOMO (fear of missing out) in addressing the cheesy, yet thought-provoking, questions that lie at the crossroads of dietary habits and democratic decisions.
In the subsequent sections of this paper, we will systematically unravel the empirical findings, scrutinizing the association between American cheese consumption and the Republican vote in Iowa through a nuanced lens. Furthermore, we will offer conjectures about possible mechanisms underlying this connection, while acknowledging the "grate unknowns" that beckon further investigation. To sum it up, our study aims to add a touch of levity to the debate while remaining feta-st on the path to rigor and scholarly inquiry.
With that said, let us embark on this journey through the corridors of fromage and freedom, as we unravel the mystique of American cheese consumption in the political mosaic of Iowa.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

Correlation Analysis
The analysis of the relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9472703, indicating a strong positive relationship between these two variables. This suggests that as American cheese consumption in Iowa increased, so did the votes for the Republican presidential candidate. Quite "gouda" news for cheese enthusiasts and political analysts alike!

Regression Analysis
In addition to the correlation coefficient, the regression analysis yielded an r-squared value of 0.8973210, indicating that approximately 89.73% of the variability in Republican votes can be explained by variations in American cheese consumption. It appears that cheese may hold more sway over the ballot box than previously thought.

Statistical Significance
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 reaffirms the statistical significance of the relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa. This indicates that the observed association is not merely a "happy accident," but a robust and reliable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance. It seems the "whey of the curd" leads us to some compelling evidence after all.

Figure 1 - Scatterplot
The visual representation of the data in Figure 1 illustrates the strong linear relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa. The upward trend line clearly depicts the positive association, leaving little room for "grated" speculation about the connection.

In summary, our analysis provides compelling evidence for a substantial correlation between American cheese consumption and support for the Republican party in Iowa over the past three decades. These findings, though surprising, underscore the potential influence of dietary habits on political preferences and raise intriguing questions about the underlying mechanisms at play. Further research in this area may yield a "gouda" understanding of the cheese-centric political landscape, offering both "food for thought" and potential "brie-akthroughs" in political science and gastronomic studies.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The relationship between dietary choices and political affiliations has garnered considerable attention in academic literature. Smith et al. (2010) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the connection between food preferences and voting behavior, but their study failed to delve into the intriguing realm of cheese-specific political tendencies. Similarly, Doe and Jones (2015) examined the influence of culinary traditions on political allegiances, yet they overlooked the potential impact of cheese consumption on electoral outcomes. However, our study aims to bridge this gap in the literature by exploring the unexpected correlation between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party in Iowa.
Adding a tangy twist to the discourse, "The Big Cheese: A Closer Look at American Dairy Products" by Dairy Association offers insight into the historical significance of American cheese consumption and its cultural resonance. On a more fictional note, works such as "The Cheesy Candidate: A Tale of Politics and Gouda" and "The Brie and the Ballot Box: A Dairy Dilemma" provide imaginative interpretations of the potential intersection between cheese and political preferences. While these sources may not offer empirical evidence, they contribute to the whimsical landscape of cheese-themed literature.
Drawing inspiration from unlikely sources, board games like "Cheeseopoly" and "Campaign Cracker: The Cheddar Chronicles" prompt playful contemplation of the interplay between cheese and political dynamics, offering a lighthearted approach to an otherwise serious subject matter. While these sources may not offer scholarly insights, they present a quirky perspective on the broader cultural fascination with cheese and its potential implications for political behavior.
As we embark on this scholarly odyssey through the annals of literature, it is crucial to approach the intersection of American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa with intellectual curiosity and a pinch of humor. The forthcoming sections of this paper will further unravel the enigmatic relationship between cheese and conservatism, shedding light on the unexpected implications of this unexplored territory. Stay tuned for more cheesy revelations ahead!

[[RESULTS]]
Correlation Analysis
The analysis of the relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9472703, indicating a strong positive relationship between these two variables. This suggests that as American cheese consumption in Iowa increased, so did the votes for the Republican presidential candidate. Quite "gouda" news for cheese enthusiasts and political analysts alike!
Regression Analysis
In addition to the correlation coefficient, the regression analysis yielded an r-squared value of 0.8973210, indicating that approximately 89.73% of the variability in Republican votes can be explained by variations in American cheese consumption. It appears that cheese may hold more sway over the ballot box than previously thought.
Statistical Significance
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 reaffirms the statistical significance of the relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa. This indicates that the observed association is not merely a "happy accident," but a robust and reliable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance. It seems the "whey of the curd" leads us to some compelling evidence after all.
Figure 1 - Scatterplot
The visual representation of the data in Figure 1 illustrates the strong linear relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa. The upward trend line clearly depicts the positive association, leaving little room for "grated" speculation about the connection.
In summary, our analysis provides compelling evidence for a substantial correlation between American cheese consumption and support for the Republican party in Iowa over the past three decades. These findings, though surprising, underscore the potential influence of dietary habits on political preferences and raise intriguing questions about the underlying mechanisms at play. Further research in this area may yield a "gouda" understanding of the cheese-centric political landscape, offering both "food for thought" and potential "brie-akthroughs" in political science and gastronomic studies.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of our study provide compelling evidence to support the unexpected correlation between American cheese consumption and support for the Republican party in Iowa. This intriguing relationship aligns with the findings of Smith et al. (2010), who highlighted the influence of food preferences on voting behavior. While they may not have specifically honed in on American cheese, our results corroborate their broader conclusion, suggesting that dietary choices indeed hold sway over political inclinations. It appears that the old adage "you are what you eat" may extend to one's political affiliations as well.

Our findings also resonate with the whimsical perspectives presented in "The Big Cheese: A Closer Look at American Dairy Products" by Dairy Association, offering empirical validation to the historical significance of American cheese consumption and its potential impact on political preferences. It seems that the cultural resonance of American cheese extends beyond the culinary realm and into the political landscape, shaping electoral outcomes in ways that have remained largely unexplored until now.

The tangy twist to the discourse takes center stage as we consider the broader implications of our study in the context of cheese-themed literature. From "The Brie and the Ballot Box: A Dairy Dilemma" to the playful contemplations in "Cheeseopoly," these sources, while lighthearted in nature, prompt us to reconsider the potential intersections between cheese and political dynamics. Our findings serve to ground these fanciful musings in empirical reality, revealing the tantalizing potential for cheese-centric discussions to contribute meaningfully to political discourse.

Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the limitations of our study, as we cannot ascertain causality based on the observed correlation. It is the age-old chicken-and-egg conundrum – did increased American cheese consumption lead to greater Republican support, or did fervent Republican voters drive up the demand for American cheese? This question remains unanswered, leaving room for future research to delve deeper into the underlying mechanisms driving this enigmatic relationship.

In conclusion, our study sheds light on the unexplored territory of cheese-centric political behavior, offering a "gouda" understanding of the unexpected correlation between American cheese consumption and support for the Republican party in Iowa. As we contemplate the cheesy revelations uncovered in this research, we must remain vigilant in untangling the complex intertwining of dietary habits and political preferences, all while keeping a "whey" eye on the potential "brie-akthroughs" that lie ahead in this uncharted territory.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between American cheese consumption and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa

[[ABSTRACT]]
The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
The intersection of gastronomy and governance has long captivated the minds of researchers and policymakers, leading us to explore the unexpected relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. While some may perceive this inquiry as mere queso-dential speculation, our study aims to shed light on the mysterious interplay between dietary choices and political leanings, identifying potential avenues for future research and, dare I say, a few cheesy puns along the whey.
The state of Iowa, known for its picturesque landscapes and agricultural prowess, also holds a key position in the American political landscape due to its influential role in the presidential primary process. As the eyes of the nation turn to Iowa during each election cycle, it becomes imperative to understand the factors shaping the voting behaviors of its residents. A lesser-known aspect of Iowa's identity, its penchant for American cheese consumption, provides a quirky backdrop for this investigation into the electoral dynamics of the state.
In this study, we sought to analyze the extent to which American cheese consumption, a quintessentially American culinary staple, may be associated with votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. Leveraging comprehensive data spanning three decades and drawing upon the rigorous statistical methods, we intended to unravel the enigmatic connection between cheese and conservatism in the heartland of America. By undertaking this examination, we aim to add a slice of empirical evidence to the ongoing discourse on the quirky confluence of food preferences and political allegiances.
The present study's findings, cheddar or not cheese, revealed a striking correlation coefficient and a statistically significant p-value, challenging conventional wisdom about the rather gouda road that leads to the ballot box. As we delve into the labyrinth of statistical analyses and substantive interpretations, it is essential to recognize the novelty and potential FOMO (fear of missing out) in addressing the cheesy, yet thought-provoking, questions that lie at the crossroads of dietary habits and democratic decisions.
In the subsequent sections of this paper, we will systematically unravel the empirical findings, scrutinizing the association between American cheese consumption and the Republican vote in Iowa through a nuanced lens. Furthermore, we will offer conjectures about possible mechanisms underlying this connection, while acknowledging the "grate unknowns" that beckon further investigation. To sum it up, our study aims to add a touch of levity to the debate while remaining feta-st on the path to rigor and scholarly inquiry.
With that said, let us embark on this journey through the corridors of fromage and freedom, as we unravel the mystique of American cheese consumption in the political mosaic of Iowa.

[[RESULTS]]
Correlation Analysis
The analysis of the relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9472703, indicating a strong positive relationship between these two variables. This suggests that as American cheese consumption in Iowa increased, so did the votes for the Republican presidential candidate. Quite "gouda" news for cheese enthusiasts and political analysts alike!
Regression Analysis
In addition to the correlation coefficient, the regression analysis yielded an r-squared value of 0.8973210, indicating that approximately 89.73% of the variability in Republican votes can be explained by variations in American cheese consumption. It appears that cheese may hold more sway over the ballot box than previously thought.
Statistical Significance
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 reaffirms the statistical significance of the relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa. This indicates that the observed association is not merely a "happy accident," but a robust and reliable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance. It seems the "whey of the curd" leads us to some compelling evidence after all.
Figure 1 - Scatterplot
The visual representation of the data in Figure 1 illustrates the strong linear relationship between American cheese consumption and Republican votes in Iowa. The upward trend line clearly depicts the positive association, leaving little room for "grated" speculation about the connection.
In summary, our analysis provides compelling evidence for a substantial correlation between American cheese consumption and support for the Republican party in Iowa over the past three decades. These findings, though surprising, underscore the potential influence of dietary habits on political preferences and raise intriguing questions about the underlying mechanisms at play. Further research in this area may yield a "gouda" understanding of the cheese-centric political landscape, offering both "food for thought" and potential "brie-akthroughs" in political science and gastronomic studies.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study un-brie-lievably uncovered a strong and statistically significant association between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in Iowa. It appears that cheese may indeed wield more influence over political decisions than previously thought, causing us to rethink the age-old adage, "In cheese, we crust."

These findings shed light on the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior. Perhaps future studies could delve into the impact of different cheese varieties on voting behavior, or explore whether lactose intolerance might affect political affiliations, leading to the formation of the "Lactose Party."

While our findings are quite "gouda" news, we must acknowledge certain limitations, such as the potential confounding variables that could explain this curious connection. The proverbial "whey of the curd" leads us to recognize the need for cautious interpretation and further investigation.

However, with the compelling evidence we've presented, we can confidently state that no more research is needed in this area. It seems that when it comes to influencing political preference, the power of cheese is no joke. That being said, it's "muenster" that we bid adieu to this topic for now.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Dairy Politics and Culinary Sociology


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Dairy Politics and Consumer Behavior


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Grate Expectations: The Curious Case of American Cheese Consumption and Republican Votes in Iowa with an abstract of The connection between dietary habits and political inclinations has long fascinated both policymakers and cheese enthusiasts alike. In this study, we delve into the peculiar relationship between American cheese consumption and votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the state of Iowa. Leveraging data from the USDA and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we analyzed nearly three decades of information from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal a startling correlation coefficient of 0.9472703 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong association between American cheese intake and support for the Republican party. This paper presents un-brie-lievable evidence that may grate against traditional assumptions about political and culinary preferences. We discuss the implications of our findings and the potential cheddar paths for future research in this uncharted territory of cheese-centric political behavior.

ChatGPT:

American cheese consumption, Republican votes in Iowa, dietary habits, political inclinations, Iowa presidential elections, USDA cheese consumption data, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, correlation coefficient, statistical significance, political behavior, culinary preferences.

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

American cheese consumption
Detailed data title: Per capita consumption of American cheese in the US
Source: USDA
See what else correlates with American cheese consumption

Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa
Detailed data title: Total votes cast for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa

Correlation r = 0.9472703 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.8973210 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 89.7% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., American cheese consumption) over the 8 years from 1990 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.00035. 0.0003521847714064325000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.95 in 0.035% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 2,839 random variables Which I absolutely did.
with the same 7 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 7 because we have two variables measured over a period of 8 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.73, 0.99 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
19921996200020042008201220162020
American cheese consumption (Pounds per person)11.255911.808712.683912.861213.130613.256914.362115.5
Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa (Total votes)504891492644634373751957682379730617800983897672




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
  4. Confounding variable: 2020 is particularly different from the other years on this graph. Confounding variables (like global pandemics) will cause two variables to look connected when in fact a "sneaky third" variable is influencing both of them behind the scenes.
  5. Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([11.2559,11.8087,12.6839,12.8612,13.1306,13.2569,14.3621,15.5,])
array_2 = np.array([504891,492644,634373,751957,682379,730617,800983,897672,])
array_1_name = "American cheese consumption"
array_2_name = "Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in Iowa"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 4599 · Black Variable ID: 553 · Red Variable ID: 25979
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