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AI explanation
As the name Vanessa fell out of favor, it led to a decrease in the number of wannabe pyromaniacs in Michigan. Without their fiery leader, the arson trend just couldn't keep burning in the Great Lakes State. It seems that the spark for starting fires was directly linked to the popularity of this particular name!Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that captures a vibrant Michigan town scene reminiscent of a Pixar movie. In the foreground, several cheerful storefronts and buildings are adorned with colorful banners displaying the name "Vanessa," exuding a sense of shared identity and popularity. However, in the distance, a building is depicted with plumes of smoke rising, indicating firefighting efforts to quell the arson-induced fire. The contrasting elements of community celebration and crisis response are artfully blended within the visual. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Minimalism 3D Pixar Style An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie Parallax art Surrealism
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling Michigan town, many colorful banners with the name "Vanessa" can be seen adorning the storefronts and buildings, indicating the popularity of the name. However, in the distance, plumes of smoke can be seen rising from a building, as firefighters work to extinguish a fire caused by arson.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling Michigan town, many colorful banners with the name "Vanessa" can be seen adorning the storefronts and buildings, indicating the popularity of the name. However, in the distance, plumes of smoke can be seen rising from a building, as firefighters work to extinguish a fire caused by arson. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that captures a vibrant Michigan town scene reminiscent of a Pixar movie. In the foreground, several cheerful storefronts and buildings are adorned with colorful banners displaying the name "Vanessa," exuding a sense of shared identity and popularity. However, in the distance, a building is depicted with plumes of smoke rising, indicating firefighting efforts to quell the arson-induced fire. The contrasting elements of community celebration and crisis response are artfully blended within the visual.
*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.
I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Popularity of the first name Vanessa caused Arson in Michigan to decrease.
AI academic paper
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan The Journal of Eccentric Sociological Studies Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real! |
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Make the title seem clever.
Your research team used data from US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01 for 1985 to 2022.
Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)
[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between the popularity of first names and societal phenomena has long been a subject of fascination and occasional incredulity. However, our investigation delves into a particularly fiery conundrum: the inexplicable correlation between the prevalence of the name Vanessa and the occurrence of arson in the state of Michigan. This seemingly improbable association has sparked both intrigue and skepticism within the research community, prompting us to embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between nomenclature and pyromania. As we endeavor to shed light on this curious correlation, we approach the subject with a mix of academic rigor and a healthy dose of skepticism, aware of the dangers of conflating correlation with causation in our pursuit of understanding this incendiary puzzle.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.
Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.
Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Perhaps you also got inspiration from some board games that are vaugely related.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
-------
And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between the popularity of first names and societal phenomena has long been a subject of fascination and occasional incredulity. However, our investigation delves into a particularly fiery conundrum: the inexplicable correlation between the prevalence of the name Vanessa and the occurrence of arson in the state of Michigan. This seemingly improbable association has sparked both intrigue and skepticism within the research community, prompting us to embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between nomenclature and pyromania. As we endeavor to shed light on this curious correlation, we approach the subject with a mix of academic rigor and a healthy dose of skepticism, aware of the dangers of conflating correlation with causation in our pursuit of understanding this incendiary puzzle.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The existing literature on the relationship between given names and behavioral phenomena has largely focused on conventional and logical connections, such as the influence of names on career prospects or social perceptions. Smith (2010) explored the impact of first names on individuals' professional success, emphasizing the potential implications of name stereotypes in the job market. In "Book" by Doe and Jones (2015), the authors investigate the societal implications of name popularity, highlighting the psychological and sociological factors that underpin the cultural significance of names.
However, delving into the unconventional, we encounter the work of "Firestarters: A Historical Overview of Arson in the United States" by Blaze and Ash (2008), which provides a comprehensive examination of arson throughout American history. This thorough analysis of incendiary behavior serves as an apt background for our investigation into the curious correlation between the name Vanessa and arson in Michigan. Moreover, the fictional work "Inferno: A Novel of Suspense" by Smoke (2013) presents a captivating narrative that intertwines the enigmatic allure of fire with the intrigue of human behavior, offering a peculiar yet fitting source of inspiration for our study.
A particularly unexpected source that has piqued our interest is the board game "Mystery Mansion: The Investigation of the Enigmatic Arsonist." While not an academic publication, the game offers a lighthearted take on the investigation of arson, encouraging players to unravel the mysteries of suspicious blazes. Although its relevance to our research may seem tangential at first glance, the game's thematic relevance to the subject at hand provides a thought-provoking perspective on the intersection of nomenclature and pyromania.
In the realm of fiction, "The Arsonist's Guide to Writers' Homes in New England" by Novelwriter (2007) presents a satirical exploration of the aftermath of arson, incorporating elements of wit and dark comedy. While not a scholarly work, the novel's thematic emphasis on arson and its unexpected outcomes offers a unique lens through which to consider the potential psychological implications of the correlation between the name Vanessa and arson in Michigan.
As we navigate through this unconventional terrain of nomenclature and incendiarism, we draw upon a diverse array of sources that challenge conventional academic boundaries and offer a fresh perspective on the intersection of names and behavioral phenomena.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022
Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.
Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between the popularity of first names and societal phenomena has long been a subject of fascination and occasional incredulity. However, our investigation delves into a particularly fiery conundrum: the inexplicable correlation between the prevalence of the name Vanessa and the occurrence of arson in the state of Michigan. This seemingly improbable association has sparked both intrigue and skepticism within the research community, prompting us to embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between nomenclature and pyromania. As we endeavor to shed light on this curious correlation, we approach the subject with a mix of academic rigor and a healthy dose of skepticism, aware of the dangers of conflating correlation with causation in our pursuit of understanding this incendiary puzzle.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
ChatGPT:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The data for this study was collected from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services. The US Social Security Administration provided us with records of the annual popularity of the name Vanessa from 1985 to 2022, encompassing a wide range of sources including birth certificates and social security card applications. Meanwhile, the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services offered a comprehensive database of arson incidents reported in the state of Michigan over the same time period. To ensure the integrity of the data, our research team cross-referenced the information gathered from these sources, taking meticulous care to account for any discrepancies or potential confounding variables.
The initial stage of our analysis involved computing the correlation coefficient between the prevalence of the name Vanessa and the frequency of arson incidents in Michigan. We employed a sophisticated statistical approach, utilizing both parametric and non-parametric methods to evaluate the strength and significance of the association. Given the peculiar nature of our research question, we also integrated advanced techniques from computational linguistics to explore potential linguistic or semantic connections between the name Vanessa and arson-related terminology.
Furthermore, to account for potential temporal lags and demographic shifts, we conducted a series of time-series analyses and regression models to disentangle the temporal dynamics underlying the observed correlation. In addition, we employed a geospatial analysis to examine regional variations within Michigan, considering the possibility of localized influences on the relationship between the name Vanessa and arson occurrences.
To supplement our quantitative analyses, we also employed qualitative methodologies, including interviews and focus groups with individuals bearing the name Vanessa, as well as engaging in discussions with arson investigators and forensic experts. These interactions provided valuable insights into the potential psychosocial and cultural factors that could underpin the observed correlation, offering a richer and more nuanced understanding of the interdisciplinary dimensions of our investigation.
In sum, our methodology harnessed a diverse array of quantitative, computational, and qualitative approaches to meticulously dissect the intriguing association between the popularity of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan, uncovering an enigmatic correlation that continues to fuel our perplexity and fascination.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .
For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.9260921, r-squared of 0.8576465, and p < 0.01.
One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
-------
And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The connection between the popularity of first names and societal phenomena has long been a subject of fascination and occasional incredulity. However, our investigation delves into a particularly fiery conundrum: the inexplicable correlation between the prevalence of the name Vanessa and the occurrence of arson in the state of Michigan. This seemingly improbable association has sparked both intrigue and skepticism within the research community, prompting us to embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between nomenclature and pyromania. As we endeavor to shed light on this curious correlation, we approach the subject with a mix of academic rigor and a healthy dose of skepticism, aware of the dangers of conflating correlation with causation in our pursuit of understanding this incendiary puzzle.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[RESULTS]]
ChatGPT:
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our investigation revealed a remarkably strong positive correlation of 0.9260921 between the popularity of the first name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. This finding suggests a robust relationship between the two variables over the period of 1985 to 2022. With an r-squared value of 0.8576465, the data indicates that approximately 85.76% of the variability in arson can be explained by the popularity of the name Vanessa.
As shown in Figure 1, the scatterplot illustrates the strikingly strong linear relationship between the frequency of the name Vanessa and the occurrences of arson in Michigan. Each data point seems to whisper, "There's something hot about this correlation."
While these results may kindle curiosity and spark imagination, caution must be exercised in interpreting causality based solely on correlation. As tempting as it may be to jump to fiery conclusions, it is crucial to remember the age-old adage that correlation does not equal causation. However, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient and the highly significant p-value (< 0.01) cannot be dismissed, igniting interest in exploring potential explanations for this unexpected linkage.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Limit your response to 500 tokens.
Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.
Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The existing literature on the relationship between given names and behavioral phenomena has largely focused on conventional and logical connections, such as the influence of names on career prospects or social perceptions. Smith (2010) explored the impact of first names on individuals' professional success, emphasizing the potential implications of name stereotypes in the job market. In "Book" by Doe and Jones (2015), the authors investigate the societal implications of name popularity, highlighting the psychological and sociological factors that underpin the cultural significance of names.
However, delving into the unconventional, we encounter the work of "Firestarters: A Historical Overview of Arson in the United States" by Blaze and Ash (2008), which provides a comprehensive examination of arson throughout American history. This thorough analysis of incendiary behavior serves as an apt background for our investigation into the curious correlation between the name Vanessa and arson in Michigan. Moreover, the fictional work "Inferno: A Novel of Suspense" by Smoke (2013) presents a captivating narrative that intertwines the enigmatic allure of fire with the intrigue of human behavior, offering a peculiar yet fitting source of inspiration for our study.
A particularly unexpected source that has piqued our interest is the board game "Mystery Mansion: The Investigation of the Enigmatic Arsonist." While not an academic publication, the game offers a lighthearted take on the investigation of arson, encouraging players to unravel the mysteries of suspicious blazes. Although its relevance to our research may seem tangential at first glance, the game's thematic relevance to the subject at hand provides a thought-provoking perspective on the intersection of nomenclature and pyromania.
In the realm of fiction, "The Arsonist's Guide to Writers' Homes in New England" by Novelwriter (2007) presents a satirical exploration of the aftermath of arson, incorporating elements of wit and dark comedy. While not a scholarly work, the novel's thematic emphasis on arson and its unexpected outcomes offers a unique lens through which to consider the potential psychological implications of the correlation between the name Vanessa and arson in Michigan.
As we navigate through this unconventional terrain of nomenclature and incendiarism, we draw upon a diverse array of sources that challenge conventional academic boundaries and offer a fresh perspective on the intersection of names and behavioral phenomena.
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our investigation revealed a remarkably strong positive correlation of 0.9260921 between the popularity of the first name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. This finding suggests a robust relationship between the two variables over the period of 1985 to 2022. With an r-squared value of 0.8576465, the data indicates that approximately 85.76% of the variability in arson can be explained by the popularity of the name Vanessa.
As shown in Figure 1, the scatterplot illustrates the strikingly strong linear relationship between the frequency of the name Vanessa and the occurrences of arson in Michigan. Each data point seems to whisper, "There's something hot about this correlation."
While these results may kindle curiosity and spark imagination, caution must be exercised in interpreting causality based solely on correlation. As tempting as it may be to jump to fiery conclusions, it is crucial to remember the age-old adage that correlation does not equal causation. However, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient and the highly significant p-value (< 0.01) cannot be dismissed, igniting interest in exploring potential explanations for this unexpected linkage.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[DISCUSSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[DISCUSSION]]
The findings of this study not only illuminate a distinct correlation between the popularity of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in Michigan but also ignite a sense of curiosity regarding the underlying mechanisms driving this unexpected relationship. Our results provide compelling support for the rather eccentric notion that the name Vanessa may have an unforeseen influence on fire-related behaviors.
Our investigation is reminiscent of the unorthodox exploration of nomenclature and behavioral phenomena in previous literature, as well as the diverse sources that have tantalized our intellectual appetites. The whimsical nod to the board game "Mystery Mansion: The Investigation of the Enigmatic Arsonist" takes on a whole new level of relevance as our research kindles an actual investigation into the curious correlation between the name Vanessa and arson. This unexpected connection suggests that the thematic relevance of the game might have inadvertently anticipated our rigorous empirical analysis, adding a spark of unexpected scholarly relevance to the study of nomenclature and behavioral proclivities.
The exceptionally strong positive correlation observed between the frequency of the name Vanessa and incidents of arson in Michigan provides empirical credence to the hitherto speculative notion that there may be a latent incendiary allure associated with this particular nomenclature. While we must tread carefully in ascribing causality based on correlation alone, the undeniable heat emanating from the relationship we've uncovered cannot be dismissed.
Our results stoke the flames of inquiry, casting a fiery glow on the potential impact of nomenclature on behavioral tendencies. The robustness of the correlation coefficient and the r-squared value underscore the substantial explanatory power of the popularity of the name Vanessa in predicting the variability of arson in Michigan, highlighting the incendiary influence that this seemingly innocuous name may wield.
While the blaze of curiosity surrounding this correlation burns brightly, it is imperative to approach the interpretation of these findings with the requisite caution. As tempting as it may be to fan the flames of causation, our study underscores the need for further investigations to unravel the tangled web of factors that may underlie this intriguing linkage. The unexpected fusion of nomenclature and pyromania unveiled in this study adds a novel dimension to the complex interplay between names and behavioral phenomena, igniting a fresh wave of inquiries into the enigmatic influence of nomenclature on human behavior.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.
Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
[[INTRDUCTION]]
The connection between the popularity of first names and societal phenomena has long been a subject of fascination and occasional incredulity. However, our investigation delves into a particularly fiery conundrum: the inexplicable correlation between the prevalence of the name Vanessa and the occurrence of arson in the state of Michigan. This seemingly improbable association has sparked both intrigue and skepticism within the research community, prompting us to embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between nomenclature and pyromania. As we endeavor to shed light on this curious correlation, we approach the subject with a mix of academic rigor and a healthy dose of skepticism, aware of the dangers of conflating correlation with causation in our pursuit of understanding this incendiary puzzle.
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our investigation revealed a remarkably strong positive correlation of 0.9260921 between the popularity of the first name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. This finding suggests a robust relationship between the two variables over the period of 1985 to 2022. With an r-squared value of 0.8576465, the data indicates that approximately 85.76% of the variability in arson can be explained by the popularity of the name Vanessa.
As shown in Figure 1, the scatterplot illustrates the strikingly strong linear relationship between the frequency of the name Vanessa and the occurrences of arson in Michigan. Each data point seems to whisper, "There's something hot about this correlation."
While these results may kindle curiosity and spark imagination, caution must be exercised in interpreting causality based solely on correlation. As tempting as it may be to jump to fiery conclusions, it is crucial to remember the age-old adage that correlation does not equal causation. However, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient and the highly significant p-value (< 0.01) cannot be dismissed, igniting interest in exploring potential explanations for this unexpected linkage.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[CONCLUSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[CONCLUSION]]
In conclusion, our investigation into the peculiar link between the popularity of the name Vanessa and the prevalence of arson in Michigan has ignited a fervor for further exploration. The scorching correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 certainly raises eyebrows and prompts contemplation about the potential influence of nomenclature on combustible conduct. It seems that the name Vanessa may indeed be setting the world on fire.
While we have kindled excitement with these scorching findings, we must not let our enthusiasm engulf us in the flames of hasty conclusions. As much as we'd love to fan the flames of causation, it is imperative to exercise caution and not get burned by the assumption that correlation implies causality. However, we cannot extinguish the flames of curiosity that this correlation has stoked.
It seems that the name Vanessa packs quite a fiery punch, but let us not throw kindling on the fire of speculation without further research. While our findings may have lit a spark in the research community, we must resist the temptation to leap to fiery conclusions. With that said, in the spirit of not playing with fire, we tentatively suggest that no further research is necessary in this area. The findings shall remain an amusing enigma that has tickled the fancy of researchers and ignited a blaze of curiosity.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.
ChatGPT:
The Journal of Eccentric Sociological Studies
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.
ChatGPT:
The Society for Quirky Name Phenomena Research and Investigation (SQNPRI)
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan with an abstract of This paper investigates the curious correlation between the rise of the name Vanessa and the incidence of arson in the state of Michigan. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning from 1985 to 2022, our research team uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9260921 and p < 0.01, suggesting a significant relationship between the two variables. While the findings are certainly intriguing, we emphasize the importance of interpreting correlation as not implying causation, and we encourage further exploration into the underlying mechanisms behind this unexpected linkage. The study offers a fresh perspective on the nuances of nomenclature and its potential impact on behavior, as well as sparking curiosity about the potential fire-related origin of the name itself.
ChatGPT:
Vanessa, arson, Michigan, correlation, US Social Security Administration data, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, nomenclature impact, name origin, correlation coefficient, causation, behavior, fire-related origin
*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.
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Data details
Popularity of the first name VanessaDetailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Vanessa
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Vanessa
Arson in Michigan
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in Michigan
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in Michigan
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.
r2 = 0.8576465 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 85.8% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in Michigan) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Vanessa) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.
p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 8.2E-17. 0.0000000000000000818217475034
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.
But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.
Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.93 in 8.2E-15% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 12,221,689,593,692,022 random variables You don't actually need 12 quadrillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.
p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.
In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.
Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.
[ 0.86, 0.96 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.
This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!
All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.
Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
Popularity of the first name Vanessa (Babies born) | 7608 | 7513 | 7392 | 7588 | 7014 | 6440 | 5953 | 6109 | 5919 | 5570 | 5420 | 5763 | 5816 | 5843 | 5297 | 5147 | 4680 | 4459 | 4358 | 4358 | 4102 | 4174 | 4455 | 4038 | 3522 | 2892 | 2625 | 2553 | 2101 | 1931 | 1729 | 1662 | 1518 | 1378 | 1223 | 1379 | 1222 | 1021 |
Arson in Michigan (Arson rate) | 43.1 | 60.7 | 59.8 | 55.1 | 49.6 | 48 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 44.9 | 43.5 | 41.9 | 47.1 | 55.6 | 51 | 46.3 | 23.4 | 42.5 | 48.8 | 40.7 | 36.9 | 31.8 | 32.1 | 29.7 | 28.6 | 26.8 | 30.4 | 27 | 24.5 | 20.2 | 17.2 | 20.4 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 17.7 | 16.8 | 18.4 | 14.9 | 13 |
Why this works
- Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
- Lack of causal connection: There is probably
Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied. - Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple
Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is. - Outlandish outliers: There are "outliers" in this data.
In concept, "outlier" just means "way different than the rest of your dataset." When calculating a correlation like this, they are particularly impactful because a single outlier can substantially increase your correlation.
For the purposes of this project, I counted a point as an outlier if it the residual was two standard deviations from the mean.
(This bullet point only shows up in the details page on charts that do, in fact, have outliers.)
They stand out on the scatterplot above: notice the dots that are far away from any other dots. I intentionally mishandeled outliers, which makes the correlation look extra strong.
Try it yourself
You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.
Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"
Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.
Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.
Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.
Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"
If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:
"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."
# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):
# Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)
# Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
r_squared = correlation**2
return correlation, r_squared, p_value
# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([7608,7513,7392,7588,7014,6440,5953,6109,5919,5570,5420,5763,5816,5843,5297,5147,4680,4459,4358,4358,4102,4174,4455,4038,3522,2892,2625,2553,2101,1931,1729,1662,1518,1378,1223,1379,1222,1021,])
array_2 = np.array([43.1,60.7,59.8,55.1,49.6,48,50.6,47.8,44.9,43.5,41.9,47.1,55.6,51,46.3,23.4,42.5,48.8,40.7,36.9,31.8,32.1,29.7,28.6,26.8,30.4,27,24.5,20.2,17.2,20.4,17.9,19.6,17.7,16.8,18.4,14.9,13,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Vanessa"
array_2_name = "Arson in Michigan"
# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)
# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)
Reuseable content
You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.
For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."
When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.
Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.
Download images for these variables:
- High resolution line chart
The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape. - High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
- Alternative high resolution line chart
- Scatterplot
- Portable line chart (png)
- Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
- Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Vanessa
- Line chart for only Arson in Michigan
- AI-generated correlation image
- The spurious research paper: Playing with Fire: Exploring the Incendiary Relationship Between the Popularity of the Name Vanessa and Arson in Michigan
Your rating is stellar!
Correlation ID: 1609 · Black Variable ID: 2096 · Red Variable ID: 20050