about · email me · subscribe
Spurious correlation #2,115 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Houston and the second variable is Arson in United States.  The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

As the air quality in Houston improved, it dampened the usual fiery temper of the city. With fewer pollutants in the air, there was less fuel to stoke the flames of discontent. This led to a reduction in cases of spontaneous combustion of tempers, and ultimately a decrease in the overall arson rates across the United States. The link between cleaner air in Houston and a nationwide drop in arson showcases the unexpected ripple effects of environmental changes on human behavior. Remember, correlation does not necessarily imply causation!

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie, depicting a cityscape of Houston with a thick smoke billowing up from a burning building, engulfing the city in a hazy atmosphere. The smoke mixes with pollution, creating a visually striking but unhealthy air quality. The city's skyline is partially obscured by the haze, and the lighting is dim and muted due to the presence of the smoke. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Unhealthy air quality in Houston and Arson in United States. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: An image that looks like it is a scene from 'Star Wars' An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie Surrealism Cubism 3D Pixar Style
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Unhealthy air quality in Houston and Arson in United States together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In Houston, thick smoke billows up from a burning building, engulfing the city in a haze. The air quality is visibly poor, with the smoke mixing with pollution, creating a hazy and unhealthy atmosphere.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie ] and depicting this scene: In Houston, thick smoke billows up from a burning building, engulfing the city in a haze. The air quality is visibly poor, with the smoke mixing with pollution, creating a hazy and unhealthy atmosphere. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie, depicting a cityscape of Houston with a thick smoke billowing up from a burning building, engulfing the city in a hazy atmosphere. The smoke mixes with pollution, creating a visually striking but unhealthy air quality. The city's skyline is partially obscured by the haze, and the lighting is dim and muted due to the presence of the smoke.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in Houston caused Arson in United States to decrease.\Make it sound serious until the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

The Journal of Ecological Criminology

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Rhyme words in the title.

Your research team used data from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and p < 0.01 for 1985 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

The relationship between environmental factors and criminal behavior has long been a topic of interest among researchers, policymakers, and armchair detectives alike. In this study, we embark on a journey to unravel the perplexing correlation between air pollution in the bustling metropolis of Houston, Texas, and the curious incidence of arson across the United States. What might initially appear to be a mere whim of statistical coincidence turns out to be a fiery tale of intrigue, with implications that reach far beyond the steamy bayous of the Lone Star State.

Arson, a crime as old as fire itself (although we hope not as old as Texas), has continued to captivate the minds of criminologists and environmental scientists. The act of intentionally setting fire to property holds a dark allure, sparking curiosity about the motivations behind such incendiary actions. Simultaneously, the pervasive issue of air pollution has clouded the skies and the minds of Houstonians, prompting questions about the potential ripple effects of poor air quality.

As we delve deeper into this sizzling saga, we aim to maintain a steadfast focus on the cold, hard facts – or perhaps, in this case, the hot, soft ashes. With a statistical lens and a penchant for data-driven deductions, we endeavor to disentangle the web of relationships between air pollution and arson, all while weaving in a few sparks of wry humor. After all, what better way to shed light on this perplexing puzzle than with a dose of academic banter and statistical wit?

Join us as we flick the match of inquiry and illuminate the obscured pathways of environmental crime, for in the smoky tapestry of causality, a flicker of understanding may just spark to life.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then you might move on to cartoons and children's shows that you watched for research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between environmental factors and criminal behavior has long been a topic of interest among researchers, policymakers, and armchair detectives alike. In this study, we embark on a journey to unravel the perplexing correlation between air pollution in the bustling metropolis of Houston, Texas, and the curious incidence of arson across the United States. What might initially appear to be a mere whim of statistical coincidence turns out to be a fiery tale of intrigue, with implications that reach far beyond the steamy bayous of the Lone Star State.
Arson, a crime as old as fire itself (although we hope not as old as Texas), has continued to captivate the minds of criminologists and environmental scientists. The act of intentionally setting fire to property holds a dark allure, sparking curiosity about the motivations behind such incendiary actions. Simultaneously, the pervasive issue of air pollution has clouded the skies and the minds of Houstonians, prompting questions about the potential ripple effects of poor air quality.
As we delve deeper into this sizzling saga, we aim to maintain a steadfast focus on the cold, hard facts – or perhaps, in this case, the hot, soft ashes. With a statistical lens and a penchant for data-driven deductions, we endeavor to disentangle the web of relationships between air pollution and arson, all while weaving in a few sparks of wry humor. After all, what better way to shed light on this perplexing puzzle than with a dose of academic banter and statistical wit?
Join us as we flick the match of inquiry and illuminate the obscured pathways of environmental crime, for in the smoky tapestry of causality, a flicker of understanding may just spark to life.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "The Environmental Impact of Houston's Air Pollution," Smith et al. delve into the complex interplay between industrial emissions and air quality in the Houston metropolitan area. The authors highlight the significant impact of vehicular exhaust, industrial processes, and other sources of pollution on the atmosphere, painting a vivid picture of the city's struggle with hazy horizons and compromised respiratory health. These findings serve as a backdrop to our investigation into the potential link between air quality and arson occurrences.

Moving to a more pyrotechnic perspective, Doe and Jones, in "Incendiary Incidents: Understanding Arson Across America," analyze the patterns and trends of arson incidents across the United States. Their comprehensive study paints a fiery tableau of intentional fires, shedding light on the geographical distribution and contextual factors associated with these incendiary events. As we weave these insights into our investigation, the stage is set for unraveling the intriguing possible relationship between arson and air pollution.

Venturing beyond the realm of scholarly articles, let us turn our attention to "The Arsonist's Handbook" by Pyro Pete, a colorful and, dare we say, incendiary guide to the art of setting fires. While not a scientific treatise by any measure, the book offers a peek into the motivations and methodologies of those inclined to spark flames, providing a quirky lens through which to view the enigmatic world of arson.

Moving into fictional territory, "Smoke and Fire: A Novel of Heat and Haze" by Kindle K. captures the smoldering essence of arson in a gripping narrative, intertwining the rising plumes of destruction with the complexities of human nature. While its literary merit may not lend itself directly to empirical research, the storytelling prowess of literature such as this may offer a unique perspective on the psychological underpinnings of fire-setting behaviors.

As our curiosity blazes forth, we can't help but acknowledge the ceremonial significance of smoky rituals in "Sooty the Firetruck," a beloved children's cartoon featuring a valiant red firetruck with a penchant for dousing flames. While our juvenile pursuits of knowledge may seem lighthearted, the thematic relevance of this animated series to the world of fire and smoke cannot be extinguished.

Our foray into the literature has not only illuminated the multifaceted dimensions of air pollution and arson but has also kindled a fervent desire to approach this intriguing nexus with equal parts academic rigor and playful exploration. It is with this fervor that we eagerly forge ahead, armed with statistical tools and a smattering of irreverent wit, to unravel the lingering mysteries of this blazing conundrum.

As the embers of inquiry continue to smolder, let us stoke the fire of investigation with both scholarly solemnity and a touch of scholarly sensationalism.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between environmental factors and criminal behavior has long been a topic of interest among researchers, policymakers, and armchair detectives alike. In this study, we embark on a journey to unravel the perplexing correlation between air pollution in the bustling metropolis of Houston, Texas, and the curious incidence of arson across the United States. What might initially appear to be a mere whim of statistical coincidence turns out to be a fiery tale of intrigue, with implications that reach far beyond the steamy bayous of the Lone Star State.
Arson, a crime as old as fire itself (although we hope not as old as Texas), has continued to captivate the minds of criminologists and environmental scientists. The act of intentionally setting fire to property holds a dark allure, sparking curiosity about the motivations behind such incendiary actions. Simultaneously, the pervasive issue of air pollution has clouded the skies and the minds of Houstonians, prompting questions about the potential ripple effects of poor air quality.
As we delve deeper into this sizzling saga, we aim to maintain a steadfast focus on the cold, hard facts – or perhaps, in this case, the hot, soft ashes. With a statistical lens and a penchant for data-driven deductions, we endeavor to disentangle the web of relationships between air pollution and arson, all while weaving in a few sparks of wry humor. After all, what better way to shed light on this perplexing puzzle than with a dose of academic banter and statistical wit?
Join us as we flick the match of inquiry and illuminate the obscured pathways of environmental crime, for in the smoky tapestry of causality, a flicker of understanding may just spark to life.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To unearth the underlying connections between air pollution in Houston and arson across the United States, we employed a multi-faceted methodology that combined statistical analysis with a touch of whimsy. The data utilized in this study were primarily sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System (AQS) database and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services' Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. The dataset spanned the extensive time period from 1985 to 2022, encompassing a wealth of information ripe for numerical scrutiny.

Our first port of call in this investigative odyssey was the compilation of air quality metrics from various monitoring stations in the Houston metropolitan area. Pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter were meticulously assessed, with an aim to capture the nuances of Houston's atmospheric composition. Not content to simply inhale the data passively, we then embarked on a voyage of data imputation, quality control, and harmonization – a process akin to wrangling a whirlwind of wayward winds into a coherent statistical dance.

Simultaneously, our research team scoured the depths of crime data culled from the FBI UCR Program, unraveling the labyrinthine tapestry of arson incidents across the United States. These fiery occurrences were tabulated, categorized, and cross-referenced with the atmospheric data, leading to a dizzying symphony of statistical peaks and valleys.

Statistical analyses were then unleashed upon this rich tapestry of information, with inferential techniques such as regression models, time series analyses, and spatial autocorrelation frolicking in the fertile fields of empirical inquiry. The resultant correlation coefficient, a robust 0.8130809, emerged as a beacon of statistical significance, shining a spotlight on the intricate relationship between air pollution in Houston and the nationwide prevalence of arson.

Within this methodological framework, we endeavor to emphasize the importance of harnessing the power of empirical data, even as we sprinkle in a pinch of statistical seasoning – after all, who says academia can't have a bit of pizzazz?


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .

For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8130809, r-squared of 0.6611005, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The relationship between environmental factors and criminal behavior has long been a topic of interest among researchers, policymakers, and armchair detectives alike. In this study, we embark on a journey to unravel the perplexing correlation between air pollution in the bustling metropolis of Houston, Texas, and the curious incidence of arson across the United States. What might initially appear to be a mere whim of statistical coincidence turns out to be a fiery tale of intrigue, with implications that reach far beyond the steamy bayous of the Lone Star State.
Arson, a crime as old as fire itself (although we hope not as old as Texas), has continued to captivate the minds of criminologists and environmental scientists. The act of intentionally setting fire to property holds a dark allure, sparking curiosity about the motivations behind such incendiary actions. Simultaneously, the pervasive issue of air pollution has clouded the skies and the minds of Houstonians, prompting questions about the potential ripple effects of poor air quality.
As we delve deeper into this sizzling saga, we aim to maintain a steadfast focus on the cold, hard facts – or perhaps, in this case, the hot, soft ashes. With a statistical lens and a penchant for data-driven deductions, we endeavor to disentangle the web of relationships between air pollution and arson, all while weaving in a few sparks of wry humor. After all, what better way to shed light on this perplexing puzzle than with a dose of academic banter and statistical wit?
Join us as we flick the match of inquiry and illuminate the obscured pathways of environmental crime, for in the smoky tapestry of causality, a flicker of understanding may just spark to life.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The analysis of the relationship between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence across the United States during the years 1985 to 2022 yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8130809, indicating a strong positive association between these variables. This finding suggests that changes in air pollution levels in Houston are predictably linked to changes in arson rates nationwide. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.6611005 further indicates that approximately 66% of the variability in arson rates can be explained by changes in air pollution in Houston, leaving approximately 34% to other yet-to-be-explored factors.

The obtained p-value, which is less than 0.01, confirms the statistical significance of the relationship. This small p-value suggests that it is highly unlikely to have observed such a strong association between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence if there were actually no relationship between the two variables – in other words, this connection is as unlikely as finding a snowman in Houston in the middle of summer, a rare and unexpected occurrence indeed.

A scatterplot depicting this robust correlation is illustrated in Figure 1, showcasing the clear trend observed in the data. The positive slope of the scatterplot indicates that as air pollution levels in Houston increase, there is a corresponding increase in arson rates across the United States. This relationship is striking and warrants further investigation, as it reveals a surprising interplay between environmental quality in one specific city and criminal activity on a national scale. The finding emphasizes the need for continued research to better understand the mechanisms underlying this association, and perhaps suggests that we should keep a close eye on the skies of Houston to prevent any "hot" situations.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "The Environmental Impact of Houston's Air Pollution," Smith et al. delve into the complex interplay between industrial emissions and air quality in the Houston metropolitan area. The authors highlight the significant impact of vehicular exhaust, industrial processes, and other sources of pollution on the atmosphere, painting a vivid picture of the city's struggle with hazy horizons and compromised respiratory health. These findings serve as a backdrop to our investigation into the potential link between air quality and arson occurrences.
Moving to a more pyrotechnic perspective, Doe and Jones, in "Incendiary Incidents: Understanding Arson Across America," analyze the patterns and trends of arson incidents across the United States. Their comprehensive study paints a fiery tableau of intentional fires, shedding light on the geographical distribution and contextual factors associated with these incendiary events. As we weave these insights into our investigation, the stage is set for unraveling the intriguing possible relationship between arson and air pollution.
Venturing beyond the realm of scholarly articles, let us turn our attention to "The Arsonist's Handbook" by Pyro Pete, a colorful and, dare we say, incendiary guide to the art of setting fires. While not a scientific treatise by any measure, the book offers a peek into the motivations and methodologies of those inclined to spark flames, providing a quirky lens through which to view the enigmatic world of arson.
Moving into fictional territory, "Smoke and Fire: A Novel of Heat and Haze" by Kindle K. captures the smoldering essence of arson in a gripping narrative, intertwining the rising plumes of destruction with the complexities of human nature. While its literary merit may not lend itself directly to empirical research, the storytelling prowess of literature such as this may offer a unique perspective on the psychological underpinnings of fire-setting behaviors.
As our curiosity blazes forth, we can't help but acknowledge the ceremonial significance of smoky rituals in "Sooty the Firetruck," a beloved children's cartoon featuring a valiant red firetruck with a penchant for dousing flames. While our juvenile pursuits of knowledge may seem lighthearted, the thematic relevance of this animated series to the world of fire and smoke cannot be extinguished.
Our foray into the literature has not only illuminated the multifaceted dimensions of air pollution and arson but has also kindled a fervent desire to approach this intriguing nexus with equal parts academic rigor and playful exploration. It is with this fervor that we eagerly forge ahead, armed with statistical tools and a smattering of irreverent wit, to unravel the lingering mysteries of this blazing conundrum.
As the embers of inquiry continue to smolder, let us stoke the fire of investigation with both scholarly solemnity and a touch of scholarly sensationalism.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence across the United States during the years 1985 to 2022 yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8130809, indicating a strong positive association between these variables. This finding suggests that changes in air pollution levels in Houston are predictably linked to changes in arson rates nationwide. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.6611005 further indicates that approximately 66% of the variability in arson rates can be explained by changes in air pollution in Houston, leaving approximately 34% to other yet-to-be-explored factors.
The obtained p-value, which is less than 0.01, confirms the statistical significance of the relationship. This small p-value suggests that it is highly unlikely to have observed such a strong association between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence if there were actually no relationship between the two variables – in other words, this connection is as unlikely as finding a snowman in Houston in the middle of summer, a rare and unexpected occurrence indeed.
A scatterplot depicting this robust correlation is illustrated in Figure 1, showcasing the clear trend observed in the data. The positive slope of the scatterplot indicates that as air pollution levels in Houston increase, there is a corresponding increase in arson rates across the United States. This relationship is striking and warrants further investigation, as it reveals a surprising interplay between environmental quality in one specific city and criminal activity on a national scale. The finding emphasizes the need for continued research to better understand the mechanisms underlying this association, and perhaps suggests that we should keep a close eye on the skies of Houston to prevent any "hot" situations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of this study provide compelling evidence of a significant positive correlation between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence across the United States. These results align with prior research on the environmental impact of air pollution and the patterns of arson occurrences. The literature review revealed the intricate relationship between industrial emissions, vehicular exhaust, and the quality of the air in Houston. These findings set the stage for our investigation into the potential link between air quality and arson occurrences. Additionally, the analysis by Doe and Jones provided valuable insights into the geographical distribution and contextual factors associated with arson incidents, complementing our efforts to unveil the interconnected nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior.

The robust correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and the statistical significance confirmed by the small p-value further validate our findings. The coefficient of determination of 0.6611005 indicates that a substantial proportion of the variability in arson rates can be attributed to changes in air pollution levels in Houston. These results remain consistent with the existing literature, illuminating the unexpected connection between a single city's environmental quality and nationwide criminal activity. The statistical relationship observed in this study underscores the relevance and potential impact of localized environmental factors on broader societal phenomena.

The implications of these findings are as substantial as finding a snowman in Houston in the middle of summer – unexpected and intriguing. The positive slope of the scatterplot emphasizes the escalating pattern of arson rates in conjunction with increasing air pollution levels in Houston, highlighting the pressing need for interdisciplinary collaboration to further probe this intriguing association. These results provoke further reflection on the potential mechanisms that underpin this relationship and prompt the consideration of proactive measures to address the implications of air pollution on criminal behavior.

In conclusion, this investigation has unraveled a captivating correlation between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence across the United States, substantiating the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior. While this study has yielded valuable insights, the complexity of this relationship demands ongoing research and a concerted effort to deepen our understanding. As we continue to navigate this intriguing nexus, the burning question lingers – how does the hazy skyline of Houston influence the fiery tendencies of arsonists across the nation? This conundrum warrants both scholarly scrutiny and a touch of levity as we strive to shed light on the smoldering mysteries of this unexpected connection.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Houston and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The relationship between environmental factors and criminal behavior has long been a topic of interest among researchers, policymakers, and armchair detectives alike. In this study, we embark on a journey to unravel the perplexing correlation between air pollution in the bustling metropolis of Houston, Texas, and the curious incidence of arson across the United States. What might initially appear to be a mere whim of statistical coincidence turns out to be a fiery tale of intrigue, with implications that reach far beyond the steamy bayous of the Lone Star State.
Arson, a crime as old as fire itself (although we hope not as old as Texas), has continued to captivate the minds of criminologists and environmental scientists. The act of intentionally setting fire to property holds a dark allure, sparking curiosity about the motivations behind such incendiary actions. Simultaneously, the pervasive issue of air pollution has clouded the skies and the minds of Houstonians, prompting questions about the potential ripple effects of poor air quality.
As we delve deeper into this sizzling saga, we aim to maintain a steadfast focus on the cold, hard facts – or perhaps, in this case, the hot, soft ashes. With a statistical lens and a penchant for data-driven deductions, we endeavor to disentangle the web of relationships between air pollution and arson, all while weaving in a few sparks of wry humor. After all, what better way to shed light on this perplexing puzzle than with a dose of academic banter and statistical wit?
Join us as we flick the match of inquiry and illuminate the obscured pathways of environmental crime, for in the smoky tapestry of causality, a flicker of understanding may just spark to life.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence across the United States during the years 1985 to 2022 yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.8130809, indicating a strong positive association between these variables. This finding suggests that changes in air pollution levels in Houston are predictably linked to changes in arson rates nationwide. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.6611005 further indicates that approximately 66% of the variability in arson rates can be explained by changes in air pollution in Houston, leaving approximately 34% to other yet-to-be-explored factors.
The obtained p-value, which is less than 0.01, confirms the statistical significance of the relationship. This small p-value suggests that it is highly unlikely to have observed such a strong association between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence if there were actually no relationship between the two variables – in other words, this connection is as unlikely as finding a snowman in Houston in the middle of summer, a rare and unexpected occurrence indeed.
A scatterplot depicting this robust correlation is illustrated in Figure 1, showcasing the clear trend observed in the data. The positive slope of the scatterplot indicates that as air pollution levels in Houston increase, there is a corresponding increase in arson rates across the United States. This relationship is striking and warrants further investigation, as it reveals a surprising interplay between environmental quality in one specific city and criminal activity on a national scale. The finding emphasizes the need for continued research to better understand the mechanisms underlying this association, and perhaps suggests that we should keep a close eye on the skies of Houston to prevent any "hot" situations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has provided compelling evidence of a significant positive correlation between air pollution in Houston and arson incidence across the United States. This finding sheds light on the intricate interplay between environmental factors and criminal behavior, highlighting the potential for air quality to influence criminal activity on a national scale. The robust statistical relationship, with a correlation coefficient akin to finding a needle in a haystack, suggests that changes in Houston's air pollution levels do indeed fan the flames of arson rates across the country.

While our results provide valuable insight and pause for thought, they also raise additional questions. What specific mechanisms underlie this surprising association? Are there mediating variables or confounding factors at play, potentially leading us down a path as convoluted as a labyrinth in a fireworks factory? These questions beckon further investigation, and researchers are encouraged to explore this combustible connection with scholarly rigor and, of course, a healthy dose of caution around open flames.

It's clear that this blazing correlation deserves continued attention, much like a campfire story that keeps us on the edge of our seats. However, given the statistical heft of our findings, one might argue that further inquiry could be akin to trying to ignite a firework that's already sparkling and shining brightly. As such, we assert that our study provides a solid foundation for understanding the link between air pollution in Houston and arson in the United States, suggesting that future research in this area may simply be adding fuel to the fire.

In the spirit of scientific inquiry and a touch of whimsy, we invite fellow scholars to join us in contemplating the thought-provoking implications of this fiery correlation – after all, tackling complex issues requires both a cool head and a warm heart. With that said, we confidently declare that, like a well-tended hearth fire, no further research is needed in this particular domain, and we eagerly anticipate the sparks of insight that will undoubtedly arise as a result of our illuminating endeavor.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Ecological Criminology


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

National Institute for Environmental and Cultural Studies (NIECS)


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Burning Concerns: Unveiling the Link between Air Pollution in the Bayou City and Arson in the Stars and Stripes with an abstract of This research article delves into the intriguing connection between air pollution in Houston, Texas, and the incidence of arson across the United States. Leveraging datasets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning the years 1985 to 2022. The results revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8130809 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a robust statistical relationship between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings shed light on the intertwined nature of environmental quality and criminal behavior, suggesting that perhaps the hazy skies of Houston may be igniting more than just conversations. We invite readers to join us in unraveling this curious conundrum with both scientific rigor and a dash of levity.

ChatGPT:

air pollution, Houston Texas, arson, United States, Environmental Protection Agency, FBI, correlation coefficient, statistical relationship, criminal behavior, environmental quality

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



Random correlation

Discover a new correlation

View all correlations

View all research papers

Report an error


Data details

Air pollution in Houston
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with air quality at 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' or worse in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Houston

Arson in United States
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in United States
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in United States

Correlation r = 0.8130809 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.6611005 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 66.1% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in United States) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in Houston) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 5.6E-10. 0.0000000005574847936608934000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.81 in 5.6E-8% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 1,793,770,900 random variables You don't actually need 1 billion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.67, 0.9 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Air pollution in Houston (Bad air quality days)32.328829.315131.780833.606620.27425.479521.095917.759616.986323.561627.945216.666722.739724.657527.397324.043723.287718.904121.369920.218627.823721.643815.068512.60278.7671212.054815.616413.11486.575343.8356212.32886.284156.849329.589048.493156.557388.2191810.6849
Arson in United States (Arson rate)43.646.342.54141.441.74140.837.339.636.734.632.629.728.824.727.726.82523.623.124.422.621.619.518.117.517.614.914.513.714.113.2121113.98.911.6




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([32.3288,29.3151,31.7808,33.6066,20.274,25.4795,21.0959,17.7596,16.9863,23.5616,27.9452,16.6667,22.7397,24.6575,27.3973,24.0437,23.2877,18.9041,21.3699,20.2186,27.8237,21.6438,15.0685,12.6027,8.76712,12.0548,15.6164,13.1148,6.57534,3.83562,12.3288,6.28415,6.84932,9.58904,8.49315,6.55738,8.21918,10.6849,])
array_2 = np.array([43.6,46.3,42.5,41,41.4,41.7,41,40.8,37.3,39.6,36.7,34.6,32.6,29.7,28.8,24.7,27.7,26.8,25,23.6,23.1,24.4,22.6,21.6,19.5,18.1,17.5,17.6,14.9,14.5,13.7,14.1,13.2,12,11,13.9,8.9,11.6,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in Houston"
array_2_name = "Arson in United States"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:


View another random correlation

How fun was this correlation?

You're a rater extraordinaire!


Correlation ID: 2115 · Black Variable ID: 20721 · Red Variable ID: 20038
about · subscribe · emailme@tylervigen.com · twitter

CC BY 4.0