AI explanation
As the air quality improved, people could finally take deep breaths without feeling like they were inhaling their daily stress. This led to an overall calmer demeanor and a reduced inclination to engage in violent behavior. It’s amazing what a little extra oxygen can do for the town’s peace and tranquility.Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate a serene and whimsical image that captures the essence of a peaceful night in Blacksburg, Virginia. The scene depicts a quaint little town with charming houses, surrounded by lush greenery. Above the town, a mesmerizing night sky filled with twinkling stars creates an enchanting backdrop. In the foreground, a group of people stand outside, bathed in the gentle glow of the night, gazing reverently upward. Their expressions reflect a sense of awe and wonder inspired by the celestial display. The absence of any signs of violence in the community is subtly conveyed through the tranquil atmosphere and the harmonious interaction of the people. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cutsy art illustration Pop art An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie Magic realism Oragami
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Disney Movie
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates, in the following situation: Because with cleaner air, people could finally see the stars, leading to a newfound appreciation for celestial harmony, reducing the urge for violence.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: Above the quaint little town of Blacksburg, Virginia, the night sky twinkles with countless stars. The air is crisp and clear, free from pollution. A group of people stand outside, gazing up in awe at the sparkling celestial display. They are filled with a sense of peace and wonder, which fosters a feeling of harmony. In the distance, the sound of a violent crime is notably absent, as the serenity of the night sky has diminished the urge for violence in the community.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ An image that looks like it is a scene from a Disney Movie ] and depicting this scene: Above the quaint little town of Blacksburg, Virginia, the night sky twinkles with countless stars. The air is crisp and clear, free from pollution. A group of people stand outside, gazing up in awe at the sparkling celestial display. They are filled with a sense of peace and wonder, which fosters a feeling of harmony. In the distance, the sound of a violent crime is notably absent, as the serenity of the night sky has diminished the urge for violence in the community. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate a serene and whimsical image that captures the essence of a peaceful night in Blacksburg, Virginia. The scene depicts a quaint little town with charming houses, surrounded by lush greenery. Above the town, a mesmerizing night sky filled with twinkling stars creates an enchanting backdrop. In the foreground, a group of people stand outside, bathed in the gentle glow of the night, gazing reverently upward. Their expressions reflect a sense of awe and wonder inspired by the celestial display. The absence of any signs of violence in the community is subtly conveyed through the tranquil atmosphere and the harmonious interaction of the people.
*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.
I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia caused Violent crime rates to decrease. Make it feel plausible.
AI academic paper
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates The Journal of Ecological Quirks and Correlations Jan 2024 |
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Rhyme words in the title.
Your research team used data from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.7865111 and p < 0.01 for 1990 to 2022.
Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)
[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
ChatGPT:
INTRODUCTION
In the bucolic town of Blacksburg, Virginia, amidst the idyllic scenery and the melodious hum of scholarly pursuits, there exists a contentious conundrum—does foul air instigate foul play? The perplexing relationship between air pollution and violent crime rates has tickled the fanciful curiosity of researchers and armchair philosophers alike. The quest to unravel this mystery has pitted statistical analyses against anecdotal evidence, creating a veritable tug-of-war in the realm of academia.
As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we are confronted with the perennial question—can we discern a discernible connection between the inhalation of airborne pollutants and the precipitation of criminal behavior? While some may dismiss such inquiries as mere flights of fancy, the insidious dance between noxious fumes and nefarious behavior beckons us to scrutinize with a cautious eye and a sense of humor, if you will permit.
Our expedition leads us to peruse copious volumes of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, seeking to disentangle the statistical skein tying together the air quality index and the rates of violent crime. It is within this labyrinth of numbers and correlations that we are primed to unearth significant associations and illuminate the complex interplay of airborne contaminants and criminal mischief.
Nonetheless, as we delve into this weighty matter, we mustn't overlook the levity that can be found in the unexpected cracks and crevices of this scholarly pursuit. For we have set forth not only to dissect the nexus between pollution and criminal activity but also to bring a breath of fresh air to the discourse, peppering our findings with a dose of lightheartedness.
So, with a twinkle in our eyes and a spring in our step, let us traverse this landscape, heedless of the turbulent currents that threaten to cloud our clarity. Together, we embark on an odyssey that promises a gust of entertainment, a scattering of insight, and a dash of whimsy. Let us not merely clear the air but also revel in the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates, as we find the peculiar joy in this scholarly journey.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.
Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.
Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading the backs of shampoo bottles.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
-------
And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
In the bucolic town of Blacksburg, Virginia, amidst the idyllic scenery and the melodious hum of scholarly pursuits, there exists a contentious conundrum—does foul air instigate foul play? The perplexing relationship between air pollution and violent crime rates has tickled the fanciful curiosity of researchers and armchair philosophers alike. The quest to unravel this mystery has pitted statistical analyses against anecdotal evidence, creating a veritable tug-of-war in the realm of academia.
As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we are confronted with the perennial question—can we discern a discernible connection between the inhalation of airborne pollutants and the precipitation of criminal behavior? While some may dismiss such inquiries as mere flights of fancy, the insidious dance between noxious fumes and nefarious behavior beckons us to scrutinize with a cautious eye and a sense of humor, if you will permit.
Our expedition leads us to peruse copious volumes of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, seeking to disentangle the statistical skein tying together the air quality index and the rates of violent crime. It is within this labyrinth of numbers and correlations that we are primed to unearth significant associations and illuminate the complex interplay of airborne contaminants and criminal mischief.
Nonetheless, as we delve into this weighty matter, we mustn't overlook the levity that can be found in the unexpected cracks and crevices of this scholarly pursuit. For we have set forth not only to dissect the nexus between pollution and criminal activity but also to bring a breath of fresh air to the discourse, peppering our findings with a dose of lightheartedness.
So, with a twinkle in our eyes and a spring in our step, let us traverse this landscape, heedless of the turbulent currents that threaten to cloud our clarity. Together, we embark on an odyssey that promises a gust of entertainment, a scattering of insight, and a dash of whimsy. Let us not merely clear the air but also revel in the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates, as we find the peculiar joy in this scholarly journey.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The inquiry into the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia has captured the imaginations of researchers and armchair enthusiasts alike. The quest to untangle this enigmatic association has prompted an exploration of a wide array of literature, ranging from serious scientific studies to more whimsical and offbeat sources.
In their study "Air Quality and Violent Crime: A Statistical Analysis," Smith et al. conduct a comprehensive examination of air pollution and its potential impact on violent crime rates. Their findings suggest a positive correlation between increases in air pollutant levels and an uptick in violent criminal activities, providing an initial glimpse into the intriguing relationship under examination.
Doe and Jones, in "The Polluted Mind: Exploring the Psychological Effects of Air Pollution," delve into the potential psychological implications of inhaling polluted air. While their work primarily focuses on mental health outcomes, they touch upon the broader societal implications, hinting at a potential avenue for exploring the link between air pollution and criminal behavior.
Turning to broader literature, non-fiction works such as "The Air We Breathe: A Comprehensive Analysis of Air Quality" by Environmental Scientist A. Green and "Crime and Consequences: Exploring the Ramifications of Criminal Behavior" by Criminologist B. Blue provide valuable insights into the domains of environmental science and criminology, respectively.
Fictional literature, although not rooted in empirical evidence, can often offer a refreshing perspective. Novels such as "The Unseen Killer" by A. Smog and "Clouds of Mischief" by T. Rouble present imaginative narratives that, while not grounded in scientific rigor, spark the imagination and prompt contemplation of the more obscure connections between air pollution and criminal endeavors.
In the spirit of openness to unconventional sources, the researchers have also delved into unexpected avenues, perusing the backs of shampoo bottles and cereal boxes for any glimpses of wisdom on the subject matter. While these unconventional sources have yielded no tangible insights, they have certainly provided moments of levity and unexpected amusement in the course of this scholarly odyssey.
As we move forward in our analysis, a balanced approach that synthesizes serious research with a touch of whimsy is deemed vital, ensuring that we do not merely dwell in the depths of statistical analyses but also embrace the lighter aspects of this thought-provoking investigation.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1990 to 2022
Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.
Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
[[INTRODUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
In the bucolic town of Blacksburg, Virginia, amidst the idyllic scenery and the melodious hum of scholarly pursuits, there exists a contentious conundrum—does foul air instigate foul play? The perplexing relationship between air pollution and violent crime rates has tickled the fanciful curiosity of researchers and armchair philosophers alike. The quest to unravel this mystery has pitted statistical analyses against anecdotal evidence, creating a veritable tug-of-war in the realm of academia.
As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we are confronted with the perennial question—can we discern a discernible connection between the inhalation of airborne pollutants and the precipitation of criminal behavior? While some may dismiss such inquiries as mere flights of fancy, the insidious dance between noxious fumes and nefarious behavior beckons us to scrutinize with a cautious eye and a sense of humor, if you will permit.
Our expedition leads us to peruse copious volumes of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, seeking to disentangle the statistical skein tying together the air quality index and the rates of violent crime. It is within this labyrinth of numbers and correlations that we are primed to unearth significant associations and illuminate the complex interplay of airborne contaminants and criminal mischief.
Nonetheless, as we delve into this weighty matter, we mustn't overlook the levity that can be found in the unexpected cracks and crevices of this scholarly pursuit. For we have set forth not only to dissect the nexus between pollution and criminal activity but also to bring a breath of fresh air to the discourse, peppering our findings with a dose of lightheartedness.
So, with a twinkle in our eyes and a spring in our step, let us traverse this landscape, heedless of the turbulent currents that threaten to cloud our clarity. Together, we embark on an odyssey that promises a gust of entertainment, a scattering of insight, and a dash of whimsy. Let us not merely clear the air but also revel in the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates, as we find the peculiar joy in this scholarly journey.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
ChatGPT:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Data Collection
As we sallied forth into the digital wilderness of the internet, we cast our nets wide to wrangle in copious amounts of data pertaining to air pollution and violent crime rates. Our trusty trawling grounds included the hallowed repositories of the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, where we skillfully extracted relevant pieces of information from the vast sea of data spanning the years 1990 to 2022. These sources provided us with the bedrock upon which to erect our statistical edifice, allowing us to glean insights into the whims and caprices of air pollution and its potential relationship with criminal behavior.
We acknowledge that this endeavor involved navigating the labyrinthine corridors of online databases with a measure of dexterity and a healthy dose of skepticism. However, armed with spreadsheet sorcery and the tools of the trade, we triumphantly procured a treasure trove of numerical nuggets, brimming with the promise of uncovering the inconspicuous connections that evoke both curiosity and bemusement.
Variable Selection
With our data firmly in hand, we set about the alchemical task of cherry-picking the choicest variables for our analysis. From the EPA, we extracted the air quality index, a numerical encapsulation of atmospheric volatilities, and a measure of airborne contaminants that rival the enigmatic miasmas of yore. From the FBI, we procured data on violent crime rates, ranging from misdemeanors to more serious felonies, chronicling the tempestuous ebbs and flows of criminal activity in the tranquil environs of Blacksburg, Virginia. These variables formed the cornerstones of our inquiry, enabling us to discern the intricate dance between the unseen particles of pollution and the unmistakable specter of criminal misdeeds.
Statistical Analysis
Armed with our pantheon of variables, we channeled the spirits of mathematical inquiry and statistical scrutiny to unleash the powers of correlation and regression. With the esteemed software companions of SPSS and R at our beck and call, we invoked the gods of statistical significance to vouchsafe our findings against the tempestuous tides of randomness. Nestled within the bosom of inferential statistics, we interrogated the data with t-tests and regression analyses, eliciting a cacophony of coefficients and p-values that spoke volumes about the kinship between air pollution and violent crime rates.
While the path to statistical enlightenment may have been fraught with the occasional cataclysm, we valiantly steered our course, bowing neither to the siren call of false associations nor the treacherous rocks of spurious correlations. Through the compendium of statistical rituals, we sought to unravel the enigma of causation versus mere correlation, a quest that promised more twists and turns than a labyrinthine conundrum.
Ethical Considerations
Throughout our odyssey, we held steadfast to the solemn creed of research ethics, ensuring the sanctity of our data and the well-being of our subjects—both human and environmental. We guarded against the perils of misrepresentation and biased interpretations, fervently striving to maintain the integrity of our findings. Moreover, we extended a diligent nod of gratitude to the custodians of the data, who diligently safeguarded the repositories that nourished our scholarly curiosity.
In navigating the delicate interplay of empirical discovery and ethical stewardship, we remained unwavering in our dedication to the noble pursuit of knowledge, mindful of the ramifications and implications of our research on the wider tapestry of academic discourse and public understanding.
Limitations
As with any expedition into the uncharted realms of inquiry, our journey was not without its perils and pitfalls. The limitations of our study tugged at the coattails of our enthusiasm, reminding us of the caution that must be exercised in the interpretation of our findings. The temporal constraints of our data, the locale-specific nature of our study, and the myriad confounding variables that lurked in the shadows—these were but a few of the vexing challenges that tempered the salience of our conclusions. Nevertheless, we hoisted these limitations as flags of humility, acknowledging the boundaries that tethered our scholarly endeavors to the intricate dance of academic rigor and analytical prudence.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .
For the time period 1990 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.7865111, r-squared of 0.6185998, and p < 0.01.
One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
-------
And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
INTRODUCTION
In the bucolic town of Blacksburg, Virginia, amidst the idyllic scenery and the melodious hum of scholarly pursuits, there exists a contentious conundrum—does foul air instigate foul play? The perplexing relationship between air pollution and violent crime rates has tickled the fanciful curiosity of researchers and armchair philosophers alike. The quest to unravel this mystery has pitted statistical analyses against anecdotal evidence, creating a veritable tug-of-war in the realm of academia.
As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we are confronted with the perennial question—can we discern a discernible connection between the inhalation of airborne pollutants and the precipitation of criminal behavior? While some may dismiss such inquiries as mere flights of fancy, the insidious dance between noxious fumes and nefarious behavior beckons us to scrutinize with a cautious eye and a sense of humor, if you will permit.
Our expedition leads us to peruse copious volumes of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, seeking to disentangle the statistical skein tying together the air quality index and the rates of violent crime. It is within this labyrinth of numbers and correlations that we are primed to unearth significant associations and illuminate the complex interplay of airborne contaminants and criminal mischief.
Nonetheless, as we delve into this weighty matter, we mustn't overlook the levity that can be found in the unexpected cracks and crevices of this scholarly pursuit. For we have set forth not only to dissect the nexus between pollution and criminal activity but also to bring a breath of fresh air to the discourse, peppering our findings with a dose of lightheartedness.
So, with a twinkle in our eyes and a spring in our step, let us traverse this landscape, heedless of the turbulent currents that threaten to cloud our clarity. Together, we embark on an odyssey that promises a gust of entertainment, a scattering of insight, and a dash of whimsy. Let us not merely clear the air but also revel in the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates, as we find the peculiar joy in this scholarly journey.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[RESULTS]]
ChatGPT:
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our statistical analysis revealed a strong correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia from 1990 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.7865111 indicates a robust association, suggesting that the quality of the air may indeed be closely linked to the mischief that takes place on the ground. This statistical tug-of-war has uncovered a clear relationship, akin to a game of connect the dots where the dots happen to be particulate matter and criminal activities.
Additionally, the r-squared value of 0.6185998 suggests that approximately 61.86% of the variability in violent crime rates can be explained by variations in air pollution. It seems that foul air may not only cloud our vision but also influence the propensity for nefarious deeds. This finding adds a new layer of complexity to the idyllic image of Blacksburg, reminding us that even in the midst of serene landscapes, the invisible tendrils of pollution may be casting a long shadow over the community.
Furthermore, with a p-value of less than 0.01, our results provide compelling evidence to reject the null hypothesis and accept that there is indeed a significant association between air pollution and violent crime rates. It appears that these two variables are not merely acquaintances but rather co-conspirators in the drama of human behavior, each playing a role in shaping the narrative of criminal activities in the region. It seems that the air in Blacksburg is not just filled with oxygen and nitrogen but also with potential implications for law enforcement and public health officials.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the strong correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates. The plot unmistakably depicts the dance of data points, swaying to the rhythm of environmental factors and criminal proclivities. It seems that the winds of statistical significance have blown us towards a clearer understanding of the interplay between air pollution and violent crime rates, uncovering a tale that is both surprising and thought-provoking.
In summary, our findings suggest that the quality of air in Blacksburg, Virginia is not a mere atmospheric phenomenon but an integral part of the social fabric, intertwining with the occurrence of violent crimes in ways that prompt further investigation and perhaps a breath of fresh air in the discourse surrounding pollution and criminal behavior.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Limit your response to 500 tokens.
Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.
Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The inquiry into the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia has captured the imaginations of researchers and armchair enthusiasts alike. The quest to untangle this enigmatic association has prompted an exploration of a wide array of literature, ranging from serious scientific studies to more whimsical and offbeat sources.
In their study "Air Quality and Violent Crime: A Statistical Analysis," Smith et al. conduct a comprehensive examination of air pollution and its potential impact on violent crime rates. Their findings suggest a positive correlation between increases in air pollutant levels and an uptick in violent criminal activities, providing an initial glimpse into the intriguing relationship under examination.
Doe and Jones, in "The Polluted Mind: Exploring the Psychological Effects of Air Pollution," delve into the potential psychological implications of inhaling polluted air. While their work primarily focuses on mental health outcomes, they touch upon the broader societal implications, hinting at a potential avenue for exploring the link between air pollution and criminal behavior.
Turning to broader literature, non-fiction works such as "The Air We Breathe: A Comprehensive Analysis of Air Quality" by Environmental Scientist A. Green and "Crime and Consequences: Exploring the Ramifications of Criminal Behavior" by Criminologist B. Blue provide valuable insights into the domains of environmental science and criminology, respectively.
Fictional literature, although not rooted in empirical evidence, can often offer a refreshing perspective. Novels such as "The Unseen Killer" by A. Smog and "Clouds of Mischief" by T. Rouble present imaginative narratives that, while not grounded in scientific rigor, spark the imagination and prompt contemplation of the more obscure connections between air pollution and criminal endeavors.
In the spirit of openness to unconventional sources, the researchers have also delved into unexpected avenues, perusing the backs of shampoo bottles and cereal boxes for any glimpses of wisdom on the subject matter. While these unconventional sources have yielded no tangible insights, they have certainly provided moments of levity and unexpected amusement in the course of this scholarly odyssey.
As we move forward in our analysis, a balanced approach that synthesizes serious research with a touch of whimsy is deemed vital, ensuring that we do not merely dwell in the depths of statistical analyses but also embrace the lighter aspects of this thought-provoking investigation.
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our statistical analysis revealed a strong correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia from 1990 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.7865111 indicates a robust association, suggesting that the quality of the air may indeed be closely linked to the mischief that takes place on the ground. This statistical tug-of-war has uncovered a clear relationship, akin to a game of connect the dots where the dots happen to be particulate matter and criminal activities.
Additionally, the r-squared value of 0.6185998 suggests that approximately 61.86% of the variability in violent crime rates can be explained by variations in air pollution. It seems that foul air may not only cloud our vision but also influence the propensity for nefarious deeds. This finding adds a new layer of complexity to the idyllic image of Blacksburg, reminding us that even in the midst of serene landscapes, the invisible tendrils of pollution may be casting a long shadow over the community.
Furthermore, with a p-value of less than 0.01, our results provide compelling evidence to reject the null hypothesis and accept that there is indeed a significant association between air pollution and violent crime rates. It appears that these two variables are not merely acquaintances but rather co-conspirators in the drama of human behavior, each playing a role in shaping the narrative of criminal activities in the region. It seems that the air in Blacksburg is not just filled with oxygen and nitrogen but also with potential implications for law enforcement and public health officials.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the strong correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates. The plot unmistakably depicts the dance of data points, swaying to the rhythm of environmental factors and criminal proclivities. It seems that the winds of statistical significance have blown us towards a clearer understanding of the interplay between air pollution and violent crime rates, uncovering a tale that is both surprising and thought-provoking.
In summary, our findings suggest that the quality of air in Blacksburg, Virginia is not a mere atmospheric phenomenon but an integral part of the social fabric, intertwining with the occurrence of violent crimes in ways that prompt further investigation and perhaps a breath of fresh air in the discourse surrounding pollution and criminal behavior.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[DISCUSSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[DISCUSSION]]
Our inquiry into the correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia has unveiled a compelling statistical saga. The robust correlation coefficient and low p-value fervently endorse the idea that the quality of air may indeed have a tangible influence on the occurrence of criminal activities. Our results align with and bolster the previous research that postulates a connection between air pollution and criminal behavior, setting the stage for a new era of understanding the invisible threads that weave through the tapestry of societal dynamics.
The whimsical elements woven into our literature review, including ruminations from unconventional sources such as shampoo bottles and cereal boxes, serve as a delightful reminder that scholarly pursuits need not always be solemn and somber. They exude a playful spirit, clandestinely urging us to ponder even the most unexpected channels for intellectual exploration. By embracing a balanced approach that melds serious inquiry with a touch of levity, we foster an atmosphere conducive to creativity and the unearthing of unconventional perspectives.
Our findings also put a fresh spin on the idyllic imagery of Blacksburg, challenging the notion that pristine landscapes are immune to the tentacles of pollution. They add a layer of complexity to the narrative of this picturesque town, beckoning us to recognize that even in the seemingly tranquil embrace of nature, the invisible contours of air pollution may cast a long shadow over the community, a phenomenon we might term "pollutical intrigue."
Additionally, our results inject a sense of drama into the discourse surrounding pollution and criminal behavior, painting a picture of air pollution and crime rates as clandestine co-conspirators in the theater of human behavior. It seems that the air in Blacksburg, though invisible, may be intricately entwined with the diabolical details of criminal misdeeds, making it a potentially "noxious accomplice."
Figure 1, our trusty visual aide, vividly illustrates the dance of data points, harmonizing with the symphony of environmental factors and criminal proclivities. It stands as a testament to the enthralling nature of statistical analysis, reminding us that within the world of digits and decimals lies a realm of storytelling and revelation, akin to a digital ballad of air pollution and criminal whimsy.
In conclusion, our investigation unveils a captivating tale – a statistical tug-of-war that hints at an invisible harmony between polluted air and provocative crimes, offering a glimpse into the nuances of human behavior and environmental influences. As we move forward, further investigations may reveal even more surprising insights, giving us a breath of fresh air in the scholarly discourse. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and Violent crime rates. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.
Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
[[ABSTRACT]]
The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
[[INTRDUCTION]]
INTRODUCTION
In the bucolic town of Blacksburg, Virginia, amidst the idyllic scenery and the melodious hum of scholarly pursuits, there exists a contentious conundrum—does foul air instigate foul play? The perplexing relationship between air pollution and violent crime rates has tickled the fanciful curiosity of researchers and armchair philosophers alike. The quest to unravel this mystery has pitted statistical analyses against anecdotal evidence, creating a veritable tug-of-war in the realm of academia.
As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we are confronted with the perennial question—can we discern a discernible connection between the inhalation of airborne pollutants and the precipitation of criminal behavior? While some may dismiss such inquiries as mere flights of fancy, the insidious dance between noxious fumes and nefarious behavior beckons us to scrutinize with a cautious eye and a sense of humor, if you will permit.
Our expedition leads us to peruse copious volumes of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, seeking to disentangle the statistical skein tying together the air quality index and the rates of violent crime. It is within this labyrinth of numbers and correlations that we are primed to unearth significant associations and illuminate the complex interplay of airborne contaminants and criminal mischief.
Nonetheless, as we delve into this weighty matter, we mustn't overlook the levity that can be found in the unexpected cracks and crevices of this scholarly pursuit. For we have set forth not only to dissect the nexus between pollution and criminal activity but also to bring a breath of fresh air to the discourse, peppering our findings with a dose of lightheartedness.
So, with a twinkle in our eyes and a spring in our step, let us traverse this landscape, heedless of the turbulent currents that threaten to cloud our clarity. Together, we embark on an odyssey that promises a gust of entertainment, a scattering of insight, and a dash of whimsy. Let us not merely clear the air but also revel in the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates, as we find the peculiar joy in this scholarly journey.
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our statistical analysis revealed a strong correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia from 1990 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.7865111 indicates a robust association, suggesting that the quality of the air may indeed be closely linked to the mischief that takes place on the ground. This statistical tug-of-war has uncovered a clear relationship, akin to a game of connect the dots where the dots happen to be particulate matter and criminal activities.
Additionally, the r-squared value of 0.6185998 suggests that approximately 61.86% of the variability in violent crime rates can be explained by variations in air pollution. It seems that foul air may not only cloud our vision but also influence the propensity for nefarious deeds. This finding adds a new layer of complexity to the idyllic image of Blacksburg, reminding us that even in the midst of serene landscapes, the invisible tendrils of pollution may be casting a long shadow over the community.
Furthermore, with a p-value of less than 0.01, our results provide compelling evidence to reject the null hypothesis and accept that there is indeed a significant association between air pollution and violent crime rates. It appears that these two variables are not merely acquaintances but rather co-conspirators in the drama of human behavior, each playing a role in shaping the narrative of criminal activities in the region. It seems that the air in Blacksburg is not just filled with oxygen and nitrogen but also with potential implications for law enforcement and public health officials.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the strong correlation between air pollution and violent crime rates. The plot unmistakably depicts the dance of data points, swaying to the rhythm of environmental factors and criminal proclivities. It seems that the winds of statistical significance have blown us towards a clearer understanding of the interplay between air pollution and violent crime rates, uncovering a tale that is both surprising and thought-provoking.
In summary, our findings suggest that the quality of air in Blacksburg, Virginia is not a mere atmospheric phenomenon but an integral part of the social fabric, intertwining with the occurrence of violent crimes in ways that prompt further investigation and perhaps a breath of fresh air in the discourse surrounding pollution and criminal behavior.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[CONCLUSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[CONCLUSION]]
In conclusion and with a sprinkle of statistical whimsy, our odyssey through the enigmatic terrain of air pollution and its dalliance with violent crime rates in Blacksburg, Virginia has culminated in a revelation of considerable import. The robust correlation coefficient and the resolute r-squared value have exposed a connection so unmistakable that it is as if the air pollution and crime rates were engaged in a pas de deux, swirling and twirling in harmonious disharmony. The p-value has proven to be a formidable foe, capitulating to our hypotheses and opening the floodgates to a realm where pollution and misdemeanor entangle in statistical symphony.
It seems our findings have blown the lid off the tranquil façade of Blacksburg, revealing a society where the invisible whispers of pollutants hold sway over the disposition of its inhabitants. As we exhale our findings, we urge not only further scrutiny but also a collective inhalation of the implications embedded within this waltz of data points.
Yet, with a hearty dose of mirth and a touch of irony, we mustn't discount the sheer entertainment value derived from this scholarly escapade. It's as if we've crafted a crime novel with air pollution as the unwitting accomplice, adding layers of complexity and intrigue to the serene Virginia backdrop.
In the spirit of scholarly conviviality, we dare say that our findings have indeed cleared the air, leaving little space for doubt or further inquiry. Therefore, we assert with unequivocal certainty that no more research is needed in this area. Let the winds of statistical fate carry these revelations, as we bid adieu to this scholarly expedition with a shake of the statistics and a dash of academic levity.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.
ChatGPT:
The Journal of Ecological Quirks and Correlations
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.
ChatGPT:
The Society for Interdisciplinary Environmental Research (SIER)
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates with an abstract of The perennial question of whether air pollution contributes to violent crime rates has sparked heated debates in academic circles. Join us as we delve into a statistical tug-of-war to uncover the correlation between air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia and violent crime rates. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we scrutinized the air quality index and crime rates from 1990 to 2022. Our findings reveal a robust correlation coefficient of 0.7865111, with a p-value of less than 0.01, pointing to a significant association. As we unpack these empirical links, we bring lighthearted elements to this otherwise weighty topic, shedding a breath of fresh air on the nexus between pollution and criminal activity. So, let's clear the air and embark on this scholarly odyssey through the interactive dynamics of air pollution and violent crime rates.
ChatGPT:
Air pollution, violent crime rates, Blacksburg, Virginia, correlation, statistical analysis, air quality index, crime rates, EPA data, FBI CJIS data, association, empirical links, pollution, criminal activity
*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.
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Data details
Air pollution in Blacksburg, VirginiaDetailed data title: Percentage of days with moderate or worse air quality in Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia
Violent crime rates
Detailed data title: The violent crime rate per 100,000 residents in United States
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Violent crime rates
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.
r2 = 0.6185998 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 61.9% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Violent crime rates) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia) over the 33 years from 1990 through 2022.
p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 5.8E-8. 0.0000000576329129204288040000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.
But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.
Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.79 in 5.8E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 17,351,197 random variables You don't actually need 17 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.
p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.
In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.
Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 32 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 32 because we have two variables measured over a period of 33 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.
[ 0.61, 0.89 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.
This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!
All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.
Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia (Bad air quality days) | 0.396122 | 0.433333 | 0.301939 | 0.47557 | 0.372093 | 0.452675 | 0.288889 | 0.348066 | 0.413793 | 0.487603 | 0.405797 | 0.310734 | 0.314917 | 0.268908 | 0.175487 | 0.272981 | 0.247863 | 0.38024 | 0.272446 | 0.126935 | 0.272988 | 0.187692 | 0.181287 | 0.0674157 | 0.0875706 | 0.092437 | 0.085044 | 0.0657143 | 0.113043 | 0.0843023 | 0.0146199 | 0.075419 | 0.0810056 |
Violent crime rates (Violent crime) | 729.6 | 758.2 | 757.7 | 747.1 | 713.6 | 684.5 | 636.6 | 611 | 567.6 | 523 | 506.5 | 504.5 | 494.4 | 475.8 | 463.2 | 469 | 479.3 | 471.8 | 458.6 | 431.9 | 404.5 | 387.1 | 387.8 | 369.1 | 361.6 | 373.7 | 397.5 | 394.9 | 383.4 | 380.8 | 398.5 | 387 | 380.7 |
Why this works
- Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
- Lack of causal connection: There is probably
Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied. - Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple
Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is. - Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves.
Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.
Try it yourself
You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.
Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"
Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.
Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.
Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.
Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"
If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:
"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."
# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):
# Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)
# Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
r_squared = correlation**2
return correlation, r_squared, p_value
# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([0.396122,0.433333,0.301939,0.47557,0.372093,0.452675,0.288889,0.348066,0.413793,0.487603,0.405797,0.310734,0.314917,0.268908,0.175487,0.272981,0.247863,0.38024,0.272446,0.126935,0.272988,0.187692,0.181287,0.0674157,0.0875706,0.092437,0.085044,0.0657143,0.113043,0.0843023,0.0146199,0.075419,0.0810056,])
array_2 = np.array([729.6,758.2,757.7,747.1,713.6,684.5,636.6,611,567.6,523,506.5,504.5,494.4,475.8,463.2,469,479.3,471.8,458.6,431.9,404.5,387.1,387.8,369.1,361.6,373.7,397.5,394.9,383.4,380.8,398.5,387,380.7,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia"
array_2_name = "Violent crime rates"
# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)
# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)
Reuseable content
You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.
For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."
When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.
Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.
Download images for these variables:
- High resolution line chart
The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape. - High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
- Alternative high resolution line chart
- Scatterplot
- Portable line chart (png)
- Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
- Line chart for only Air pollution in Blacksburg, Virginia
- Line chart for only Violent crime rates
- AI-generated correlation image
- The spurious research paper: Air Pollution in Blacksburg: A Statistical Tug-of-War with Violent Crime Rates
Your rating is pure awesomeness!
Correlation ID: 3845 · Black Variable ID: 22160 · Red Variable ID: 20220