Spurious correlation #5,564 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Killian and the second variable is Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. The chart goes from 1982 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Killian and the second variable is Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. The chart goes from 1982 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

More people naming their kids after Irish saints, and St. Killian is the patron saint of hop-pickers. The demand for craft beer hops skyrocketed, leading to a surge in support for the party that believes in freedom, including the freedom to brew and drink whatever beer you want! Cheers to that!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that looks like a scene from a Disney movie. In a quaint Washington, D.C. street, a baby named Killian is being affectionately patted on the head by proud parents, surrounded by friends carrying signs in support of the Libertarian candidate. Meanwhile, a line of people excitedly waits outside a charming craft beer brewery, where boxes of hops are being loaded onto trucks, highlighting the surge in demand. The air is filled with the sounds of cheers and the clinking of glasses, as the community joyfully celebrates the freedom to brew and savor their beloved craft beer. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Killian and Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Photorealism Hyper-realistic Vaporwave Cyber folk An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Killian and Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C., in the following situation: More people naming their kids after Irish saints, and St. Killian is the patron saint of hop-pickers. The demand for craft beer hops skyrocketed, leading to a surge in support for the party that believes in freedom, including the freedom to brew and drink whatever beer you want! Cheers to that!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling Washington, D.C. street, a baby named Killian is being patted on the head by proud parents, surrounded by friends carrying signs in support of the Libertarian candidate. Nearby, a line of people excitedly waits outside a craft beer brewery, where boxes of hops are being loaded onto trucks, highlighting the surge in demand. The air is filled with the sound of cheers and the clinking of glasses, as the community celebrates the freedom to brew and drink their beloved craft beer.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling Washington, D.C. street, a baby named Killian is being patted on the head by proud parents, surrounded by friends carrying signs in support of the Libertarian candidate. Nearby, a line of people excitedly waits outside a craft beer brewery, where boxes of hops are being loaded onto trucks, highlighting the surge in demand. The air is filled with the sound of cheers and the clinking of glasses, as the community celebrates the freedom to brew and drink their beloved craft beer. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that looks like a scene from a Disney movie. In a quaint Washington, D.C. street, a baby named Killian is being affectionately patted on the head by proud parents, surrounded by friends carrying signs in support of the Libertarian candidate. Meanwhile, a line of people excitedly waits outside a charming craft beer brewery, where boxes of hops are being loaded onto trucks, highlighting the surge in demand. The air is filled with the sounds of cheers and the clinking of glasses, as the community joyfully celebrates the freedom to brew and savor their beloved craft beer.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Killian caused Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C. to increase. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Libertarian Lift: The Link Between Killian and D.C. Ballot Filling

Journal of Political Satire and Analysis

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Killian and Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading CVS receipts.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Libertarian Lift: The Link Between "Killian" and D.C. Ballot Filling

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study explores the curious correlation between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the historically buttoned-up Washington, D.C. The socially-driven data from the US Social Security Administration and the maiden data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse were analyzed with a thoroughness that would make a librarian proud. The findings revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020, providing strong evidence that there may be more to a name than meets the eye. The implications of this research could lead us to ponder, "Is there a hidden Libertarian gene hiding behind every Killian or is it all just a coinci-Killian-ce?"

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between personal names and political preferences has long been a source of intrigue, speculation, and the occasional lighthearted jest. From the whimsical "Ike for President" buttons to the bevy of "Bernie" bumper stickers, there is a certain mystique surrounding the notion that a mere moniker could hold sway over a voter's leanings. In this vein, the present study delves into the perplexing union of the first name "Killian" and the ballot-box ballet for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the enigmatic enclave of Washington, D.C.
An analysis of the data from the US Social Security Administration and the venerable MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse draws attention to the eyebrow-raising affinity between the name "Killian" and the Libertarian vote, prompting us to question whether there is an unspoken "Killian for Libertarian" dogma at play or if it is all just a quirk of fate. The statistical scrutiny applied to this investigation could rival the precision of a practiced sniper, and the uncovering of a correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a formidable p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020 reinforces the notion that there might be more to a name than mere syllables and consonants.
As the implications of this study begin to unfurl, we are obliged to entertain the possibility that the name "Killian" may carry with it an unanticipated allegiance to libertarian ideals, or perhaps it is a case of arbitrary statistical happenstance. In either instance, the confluence of nomenclature and political proclivity demands further exploration, leaving us to muse upon the notion that there may indeed be a libertarian spirit lurking behind every "Killian," ready to liberate itself at the polling booth. This research not only sheds light on the amusing and perplexing intersection of personal names and politics but also serves as a reminder that, in the realm of statistical analysis, one must always be wary of the unforeseen "coinci-Killian-ces" that may lie in wait.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The connection between personal names and political behavior has been the subject of longstanding inquiry, with scholars seeking to discern whether one's nomenclature can exert subtle influence over one's political leanings. Smith et al. (2010) examined the relationship between given names and voting patterns in their seminal work, "Names and Natures: A Study of Linguistic Determinism in Political Preference," while Doe and Jones (2015) explored the impact of surname syllable count on civic engagement in their comprehensive monograph, "Surnames and Ballot Boxes: A Syllabic Scrutiny." These studies, though not specifically focused on the name "Killian," underscore the broader interest in the potential interplay between nomenclature and political proclivity.

Turning to more ancillary sources, the expanse of literature related to names and their potential influence on human behavior offers a wealth of tangentially relevant insights. In "The Name Game: Decoding the Mysteries of Monikers" (Barrett, 2018), the author provides a comprehensive overview of the psychological and societal implications of personal names, delving into topics ranging from name popularity to perceived societal expectations. Additionally, "What's in a Name?: Names and Identity in a Postmodern Society" (Garcia, 2017) offers a thought-provoking examination of the multifaceted nature of names and their implications for individual identity, social categorization, and self-perception.

Further expanding the purview of inquiry to works of fiction, the literature becomes increasingly eclectic, encompassing both speculative and satirical narratives that invite contemplation of the potential impact of names on human behavior. "The Name Effect" (Parker, 2012), a whimsical novel set in a parallel universe where names directly shape the destinies of individuals, whimsically explores the ramifications of a world in which names wield tangible influence over one's life trajectory. In a similar vein, "The Nominal Nexus" (Harrison, 2005) offers a comedic take on the serendipitous convergence of nomenclature and happenstance, weaving a tale of chance encounters and fortuitous occurrences catalyzed by the sheer power of names.

Beyond the traditional confines of scholarly and literary sources, the review of relevant literature has extended to unorthodox repositories of potential insight. Notably, the perusal of miscellaneous artifacts, such as discarded grocery lists, whimsical fortune cookie messages, and even the enigmatic jumble of company slogans printed on CVS receipts, has subtly informed the understanding of the elusive connection between personal names and political predilections. While unconventional, these sources have contributed a distinct flair of serendipity to the academic pursuit, reminding us that scholarly inquiry, much like the name "Killian" itself, can occasionally reveal unexpected quirks and hidden connections.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Killian and Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse . You used data from 1982 to 2020

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Libertarian Lift: The Link Between "Killian" and D.C. Ballot Filling

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study explores the curious correlation between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the historically buttoned-up Washington, D.C. The socially-driven data from the US Social Security Administration and the maiden data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse were analyzed with a thoroughness that would make a librarian proud. The findings revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020, providing strong evidence that there may be more to a name than meets the eye. The implications of this research could lead us to ponder, "Is there a hidden Libertarian gene hiding behind every Killian or is it all just a coinci-Killian-ce?"

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between personal names and political preferences has long been a source of intrigue, speculation, and the occasional lighthearted jest. From the whimsical "Ike for President" buttons to the bevy of "Bernie" bumper stickers, there is a certain mystique surrounding the notion that a mere moniker could hold sway over a voter's leanings. In this vein, the present study delves into the perplexing union of the first name "Killian" and the ballot-box ballet for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the enigmatic enclave of Washington, D.C.
An analysis of the data from the US Social Security Administration and the venerable MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse draws attention to the eyebrow-raising affinity between the name "Killian" and the Libertarian vote, prompting us to question whether there is an unspoken "Killian for Libertarian" dogma at play or if it is all just a quirk of fate. The statistical scrutiny applied to this investigation could rival the precision of a practiced sniper, and the uncovering of a correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a formidable p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020 reinforces the notion that there might be more to a name than mere syllables and consonants.
As the implications of this study begin to unfurl, we are obliged to entertain the possibility that the name "Killian" may carry with it an unanticipated allegiance to libertarian ideals, or perhaps it is a case of arbitrary statistical happenstance. In either instance, the confluence of nomenclature and political proclivity demands further exploration, leaving us to muse upon the notion that there may indeed be a libertarian spirit lurking behind every "Killian," ready to liberate itself at the polling booth. This research not only sheds light on the amusing and perplexing intersection of personal names and politics but also serves as a reminder that, in the realm of statistical analysis, one must always be wary of the unforeseen "coinci-Killian-ces" that may lie in wait.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The methodology employed for this research involved a comprehensive analysis of the publicly available data on first names and political voting patterns from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse. The latter is a fittingly mystical repository of data, akin to a treasure trove for the discerning data miner seeking to unearth enigmatic connections.

The first step in the process was to gather historical data on the popularity of the first name "Killian" from the US Social Security Administration, which tracks the frequencies of names given to newborns. This data, spanning from 1982 to 2020, served as the foundation for our exploration of the potential correlation between this particular name and voting behaviors in the domain of the nation's capital.

Simultaneously, the voting statistics for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Washington, D.C., were retrieved from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, which holds a wealth of information that rivals the breadth of the Library of Alexandria - albeit in digital form. This data, meticulously collected and organized by the institute's esteemed researchers, provided the necessary electoral context for our comparative analysis.

With the datasets in hand, a series of statistical analyses were conducted using advanced regression models, big data algorithms, and a dollop of whimsy to detect any discernible relationship between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and the voting patterns for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Washington, D.C. The application of these techniques, akin to navigating a labyrinth of numbers and probabilities, allowed us to uncover insights that might have evaded a less intrepid group of researchers.

The statistical analyses included the calculation of correlation coefficients, p-values, and various measures of association, all of which were harnessed to discern the strength and significance of any observed relationship between the variables under scrutiny. The use of such statistical procedures, reminiscent of a delicate dance between data and theory, facilitated the identification of patterns in the empirical landscape and enabled us to draw robust conclusions from the labyrinth of information.

Furthermore, to ensure the robustness of our findings, sensitivity analyses and control group comparisons were conducted to ascertain the stability and consistency of the observed relationship. These additional analyses, akin to the meticulous calibration of a finely tuned instrument, provided further validation of our results and lent credence to the integrity of our investigative approach.

In summary, the methodology for this study hinged upon the scrupulous collection and analysis of data from esteemed repositories and the application of advanced statistical techniques with a touch of scholarly panache. The culmination of these efforts yielded compelling insights into the curious correlation between the first name "Killian" and the penchant for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the bastion of political intrigue that is Washington, D.C.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Killian and Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Libertarian Lift: The Link Between "Killian" and D.C. Ballot Filling

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study explores the curious correlation between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the historically buttoned-up Washington, D.C. The socially-driven data from the US Social Security Administration and the maiden data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse were analyzed with a thoroughness that would make a librarian proud. The findings revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020, providing strong evidence that there may be more to a name than meets the eye. The implications of this research could lead us to ponder, "Is there a hidden Libertarian gene hiding behind every Killian or is it all just a coinci-Killian-ce?"

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The connection between personal names and political behavior has been the subject of longstanding inquiry, with scholars seeking to discern whether one's nomenclature can exert subtle influence over one's political leanings. Smith et al. (2010) examined the relationship between given names and voting patterns in their seminal work, "Names and Natures: A Study of Linguistic Determinism in Political Preference," while Doe and Jones (2015) explored the impact of surname syllable count on civic engagement in their comprehensive monograph, "Surnames and Ballot Boxes: A Syllabic Scrutiny." These studies, though not specifically focused on the name "Killian," underscore the broader interest in the potential interplay between nomenclature and political proclivity.
Turning to more ancillary sources, the expanse of literature related to names and their potential influence on human behavior offers a wealth of tangentially relevant insights. In "The Name Game: Decoding the Mysteries of Monikers" (Barrett, 2018), the author provides a comprehensive overview of the psychological and societal implications of personal names, delving into topics ranging from name popularity to perceived societal expectations. Additionally, "What's in a Name?: Names and Identity in a Postmodern Society" (Garcia, 2017) offers a thought-provoking examination of the multifaceted nature of names and their implications for individual identity, social categorization, and self-perception.
Further expanding the purview of inquiry to works of fiction, the literature becomes increasingly eclectic, encompassing both speculative and satirical narratives that invite contemplation of the potential impact of names on human behavior. "The Name Effect" (Parker, 2012), a whimsical novel set in a parallel universe where names directly shape the destinies of individuals, whimsically explores the ramifications of a world in which names wield tangible influence over one's life trajectory. In a similar vein, "The Nominal Nexus" (Harrison, 2005) offers a comedic take on the serendipitous convergence of nomenclature and happenstance, weaving a tale of chance encounters and fortuitous occurrences catalyzed by the sheer power of names.
Beyond the traditional confines of scholarly and literary sources, the review of relevant literature has extended to unorthodox repositories of potential insight. Notably, the perusal of miscellaneous artifacts, such as discarded grocery lists, whimsical fortune cookie messages, and even the enigmatic jumble of company slogans printed on CVS receipts, has subtly informed the understanding of the elusive connection between personal names and political predilections. While unconventional, these sources have contributed a distinct flair of serendipity to the academic pursuit, reminding us that scholarly inquiry, much like the name "Killian" itself, can occasionally reveal unexpected quirks and hidden connections.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Washington, D.C. yielded some eyebrow-raising results. The correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 indicates a strong positive relationship between these two variables. In other words, as the popularity of the name "Killian" increased, so did the votes for the Libertarian candidate, suggesting that there may be more at play than mere chance.
Furthermore, the r-squared value of 0.8256710 indicates that approximately 82.57% of the variation in votes for the Libertarian candidate can be explained by the variation in the popularity of the name "Killian." This suggests a remarkably high degree of association between the two variables, reminiscent of the uncanny way in which researchers seem to find a pen whenever one is lost in the depths of a cluttered desk.
Notably, the p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis and indicates that the observed relationship is unlikely to be a result of random chance. It appears that the connection between the name "Killian" and Libertarian voting patterns is as statistically significant as an unexpected breakthrough in a dimly lit laboratory.
Moving to the graphical representation of the data, Fig. 1 depicts a scatterplot illustrating the robust correlation between the popularity of the name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the enigmatic enclave of Washington, D.C. The scatterplot resembles a constellation of potential electoral trajectories, hinting at the influence that a name might exert on political leanings.
Overall, these findings suggest that there may indeed be something more than mere happenstance at play in the curious alignment of the name "Killian" with Libertarian voting patterns. This research opens the door to a realm of speculation and intrigue, prompting us to wonder whether each "Killian" harbors a latent penchant for libertarian ideals, or if this correlation is merely a convoluted coinci-Killian-ce waiting to be unraveled.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of this study provide compelling evidence in support of our initial hypothesis that there exists a connection between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Washington, D.C. The robust correlation coefficient and the high magnitude of r-squared value suggest that this relationship is not to be taken lightly, much like a scientist's lab equipment.

Our findings align with prior research that has delved into the intriguing interplay between nomenclature and political affinity. Despite the initial skepticism that may surround the notion of a name influencing voting behavior, the work of Smith et al. (2010) and Doe and Jones (2015) has laid the groundwork for considering the subtle yet impactful role of names in the realm of politics. One might say that these studies have set the stage for our own exploration, much like the opening act preceding the grand reveal of a scientific breakthrough.

Moreover, the tangentially relevant insights from Barrett (2018) and Garcia (2017) cannot be overlooked. While these sources may initially seem whimsical, their contemplation of the psychological and societal implications of personal names adds depth to our understanding of the potential influence of "Killian" on Libertarian voting patterns. It seems that even the most unconventional sources, much like an unexpected pun in a scholarly paper, can contribute unique perspectives to academic inquiry.

One cannot discount the impact of literary sources in shaping the discourse. Although Parker (2012) and Harrison (2005) may have employed fictional narratives, their imaginative exploration of the influence of names on human behavior cannot be summarily dismissed. These quirky narratives, much like a good pun, invite us to consider the unforeseen dimensions of the "Killian" phenomenon and its compatibility with Libertarian inclinations.

In light of our own results, it becomes increasingly apparent that the unexpected quirks and hidden connections we discovered are far from mere happenstance. The statistically significant relationship we have uncovered between the name "Killian" and Libertarian voting patterns presents a tantalizing conundrum, not unlike a clever statistical anomaly waiting to be unraveled. It leaves us pondering: is there a clandestine Libertarian gene silently at work behind every "Killian," or is it all just a humorous coinci-Killian-ce waiting to be deciphered?

The strength of the statistical evidence certainly supports further exploration into the potential influence of nomenclature on political leanings. This research opens the door to a realm of speculation and intrigue, reminding us that scholarly inquiry, much like the name "Killian" itself, can occasionally reveal unexpected quirks and hidden connections that defy conventional expectations.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Killian and Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Libertarian Lift: The Link Between "Killian" and D.C. Ballot Filling

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study explores the curious correlation between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the historically buttoned-up Washington, D.C. The socially-driven data from the US Social Security Administration and the maiden data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse were analyzed with a thoroughness that would make a librarian proud. The findings revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020, providing strong evidence that there may be more to a name than meets the eye. The implications of this research could lead us to ponder, "Is there a hidden Libertarian gene hiding behind every Killian or is it all just a coinci-Killian-ce?"

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The relationship between personal names and political preferences has long been a source of intrigue, speculation, and the occasional lighthearted jest. From the whimsical "Ike for President" buttons to the bevy of "Bernie" bumper stickers, there is a certain mystique surrounding the notion that a mere moniker could hold sway over a voter's leanings. In this vein, the present study delves into the perplexing union of the first name "Killian" and the ballot-box ballet for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the enigmatic enclave of Washington, D.C.
An analysis of the data from the US Social Security Administration and the venerable MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse draws attention to the eyebrow-raising affinity between the name "Killian" and the Libertarian vote, prompting us to question whether there is an unspoken "Killian for Libertarian" dogma at play or if it is all just a quirk of fate. The statistical scrutiny applied to this investigation could rival the precision of a practiced sniper, and the uncovering of a correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a formidable p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020 reinforces the notion that there might be more to a name than mere syllables and consonants.
As the implications of this study begin to unfurl, we are obliged to entertain the possibility that the name "Killian" may carry with it an unanticipated allegiance to libertarian ideals, or perhaps it is a case of arbitrary statistical happenstance. In either instance, the confluence of nomenclature and political proclivity demands further exploration, leaving us to muse upon the notion that there may indeed be a libertarian spirit lurking behind every "Killian," ready to liberate itself at the polling booth. This research not only sheds light on the amusing and perplexing intersection of personal names and politics but also serves as a reminder that, in the realm of statistical analysis, one must always be wary of the unforeseen "coinci-Killian-ces" that may lie in wait.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Washington, D.C. yielded some eyebrow-raising results. The correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 indicates a strong positive relationship between these two variables. In other words, as the popularity of the name "Killian" increased, so did the votes for the Libertarian candidate, suggesting that there may be more at play than mere chance.
Furthermore, the r-squared value of 0.8256710 indicates that approximately 82.57% of the variation in votes for the Libertarian candidate can be explained by the variation in the popularity of the name "Killian." This suggests a remarkably high degree of association between the two variables, reminiscent of the uncanny way in which researchers seem to find a pen whenever one is lost in the depths of a cluttered desk.
Notably, the p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis and indicates that the observed relationship is unlikely to be a result of random chance. It appears that the connection between the name "Killian" and Libertarian voting patterns is as statistically significant as an unexpected breakthrough in a dimly lit laboratory.
Moving to the graphical representation of the data, Fig. 1 depicts a scatterplot illustrating the robust correlation between the popularity of the name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the enigmatic enclave of Washington, D.C. The scatterplot resembles a constellation of potential electoral trajectories, hinting at the influence that a name might exert on political leanings.
Overall, these findings suggest that there may indeed be something more than mere happenstance at play in the curious alignment of the name "Killian" with Libertarian voting patterns. This research opens the door to a realm of speculation and intrigue, prompting us to wonder whether each "Killian" harbors a latent penchant for libertarian ideals, or if this correlation is merely a convoluted coinci-Killian-ce waiting to be unraveled.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the findings of this study unveil a tantalizing connection between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the enigmatic enclave of Washington, D.C. The statistical analysis has revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9086644, akin to the uncanny pairing of a lab coat with a pocket protector, and a p-value less than 0.01, suggesting that this association is about as coincidental as stumbling upon a statistically significant four-leaf clover.

The implications of these findings provoke us to ponder whether each "Killian" harbors a propensity for libertarian ideals or if this is simply a case of name-dropping statistical happenstance. The robust r-squared value of 0.8256710 indicates a remarkable 82.57% of the variation in Libertarian votes can be attributed to the popularity of the name "Killian," akin to the way we attribute misplaced car keys to household gremlins.

As we reflect on these results, the evidence suggests that there may indeed be something more than mere happenstance at play in the curious alignment of the name "Killian" with libertarian voting patterns. Whether it is a quirk of fate or a reflection of a latent libertarian spirit within "Killians" is a question that elicits humor and further investigation in equal measure.

In light of these compelling findings, we are compelled to assert that no further research is needed in this area, as we've undoubtedly reached the apex of statistical wizardry with this study. After all, in the realm of research, one must know when to say "Killian" and move on.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Libertarian Lift: The Link Between Killian and D.C. Ballot Filling. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Political Satire and Analysis

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Libertarian Lift: The Link Between Killian and D.C. Ballot Filling. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Political Parachuting Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Libertarian Lift: The Link Between Killian and D.C. Ballot Filling with an abstract of This study explores the curious correlation between the popularity of the first name "Killian" and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in the historically buttoned-up Washington, D.C. The socially-driven data from the US Social Security Administration and the maiden data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse were analyzed with a thoroughness that would make a librarian proud. The findings revealed a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9086644 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the years 1982 to 2020, providing strong evidence that there may be more to a name than meets the eye. The implications of this research could lead us to ponder, "Is there a hidden Libertarian gene hiding behind every Killian or is it all just a coinci-Killian-ce?

ChatGPT:

Killian name popularity, Libertarian presidential candidate votes, Washington DC, correlation coefficient, p-value, US Social Security Administration data, MIT Election Data, Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, name association with political affiliation, hidden Libertarian gene

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Killian
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Killian
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Killian

Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.
Detailed data title: Percentage of all votes cast for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.

Correlation r = 0.9086644 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8256710 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 82.6% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Killian) over the 9 years from 1982 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.00069.^Show 0.0006927377293048780000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.91 in 0.069% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 1,444 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 8 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 8 because we have two variables measured over a period of 9 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.62, 0.98 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2012	2016	2020
Popularity of the first name Killian (Babies born)	7	30	93	161	158	166	280	1400	911
Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C. (Percentage of votes)	0.132047	0.28723	0.20521	0.316595	0.331362	0.220576	0.709073	1.56954	0.591249

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,237 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 636,906,169 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([7,30,93,161,158,166,280,1400,911,])
array_2 = np.array([0.132047,0.28723,0.20521,0.316595,0.331362,0.220576,0.709073,1.56954,0.591249,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Killian"
array_2_name = "Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C."

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
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Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Killian
Line chart for only Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Washington, D.C.
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Libertarian Lift: The Link Between Killian and D.C. Ballot Filling

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Correlation ID: 5564 · Black Variable ID: 3936 · Red Variable ID: 26074


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