Spurious correlation #3,743 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Butter consumption and the second variable is Humana's stock price (HUM). The chart goes from 2002 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Butter consumption and the second variable is Humana's stock price (HUM). The chart goes from 2002 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As butter consumption increased, so did the demand for dairy products. This led to higher profits for dairy companies, including those that supply Humana with milk for their employees' lattes. This ultimately boosted Humana's overall perceived value, spreading good vibes throughout the stock market. Looks like a little extra butter really does make everything "butter"!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Create an image inspired by bauhaus style, depicting a bustling market scene. In the foreground, several figures in business attire are shown holding slices of buttered toast, spreading butter on crackers, and pouring melted butter on popcorn. The aroma of freshly baked bread and sizzling butter fills the air. In the background, digital screens display stock prices, with Humana's stock (HUM) steadily rising. Excited investors can be seen raising their hands in celebration as they watch the numbers climb. The overall composition should have clean, geometric lines and bold, contrasting colors, inspired by the bauhaus art movement. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie Scalar art Oragami Concept art inspired by bauhaus
ChatGPT: inspired by bauhaus

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM), in the following situation: As butter consumption increased, so did demand for buttery stocks. Investors spread their wealth into Humana, hoping for a churn in the market. The company's success was no margarine of error, leading to a rise in stock price that was truly un-butter-lievable.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling market, people in business attire are seen holding slices of buttered toast, spreading butter on crackers, and pouring melted butter on popcorn. The aroma of freshly baked bread and sizzling butter fills the air. Meanwhile, digital screens displaying stock prices show Humana's stock (HUM) steadily rising, with excited investors raising their hands in celebration as they watch the numbers climb.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ inspired by bauhaus ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling market, people in business attire are seen holding slices of buttered toast, spreading butter on crackers, and pouring melted butter on popcorn. The aroma of freshly baked bread and sizzling butter fills the air. Meanwhile, digital screens displaying stock prices show Humana's stock (HUM) steadily rising, with excited investors raising their hands in celebration as they watch the numbers climb. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Create an image inspired by bauhaus style, depicting a bustling market scene. In the foreground, several figures in business attire are shown holding slices of buttered toast, spreading butter on crackers, and pouring melted butter on popcorn. The aroma of freshly baked bread and sizzling butter fills the air. In the background, digital screens display stock prices, with Humana's stock (HUM) steadily rising. Excited investors can be seen raising their hands in celebration as they watch the numbers climb. The overall composition should have clean, geometric lines and bold, contrasting colors, inspired by the bauhaus art movement.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Butter consumption caused Humana's stock price (HUM) to increase. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price

The Butter Digest

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading the backs of shampoo bottles.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
In recent years, there has been a butter-induced buzz in the financial world. This study delves into the buttery world of financial markets to investigate the unexpected connection between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). The goal is to butter up our understanding of the financial implications of dairy delight. Get ready for some dairy delicious findings!

Using data from the USDA and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we conducted a rigorous statistical analysis to churn through the data and uncover any potential relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a surprisingly strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 with a p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2021. But hey, we're not just spreading butter here, we're spreading knowledge!

In other words, it seems that as butter consumption increases, so does the stock price of Humana. It's like the stock market just can't handle the buttery smooth goodness! Perhaps there's something to be said for investing in dairy futures. Who knew that a pat of butter could have such a financial impact? But then again, as they say, you can't butter both sides of your bread.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Buttering up the financial markets? Who would've thought that the creamy, delectable world of butter could have any bearing on stock prices? As the saying goes, "I can't believe it's not financial advice!" Our study embarks on the investigation of the enigmatic relationship between butter consumption and the stock price of Humana (HUM). It's time to spread some serious financial knowledge and perhaps a few dad jokes along the way.
The butter-induced buzz has not gone unnoticed in the financial landscape. Some might even say it's causing quite a "spread" in the market. It seems that butter is not just for toast and baking - it may have implications for stock portfolios too. But don't worry, we promise not to take this study with a grain of salt. After all, we can't let it go to our heads, we're not in the dairy business!
Taking a deep dive into the data, we wielded statistical tools to churn through the numbers and examine the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9119075, with a p-value of less than 0.01. It's like the financial markets are in a heated debate - to butter or not to butter? But as any good dairy farmer would attest, don't cry over spilled milk, especially if it's a bullish market!
The dairy delicious findings of our study have not only unveiled a surprising connection but also opened up a world of pun-tential in discussing the buttery implications for stock prices. It seems that butter consumption is positively correlated with the stock price of Humana, much like how a pat of butter positively correlates with a slice of warm bread. It's enough to make you wonder if there's a "margarine" for error in this relationship.
Stay tuned as we delve further into the creamy conundrum of butter's influence on stock prices. It's time to separate the whey from the chaff and see if there's a financial spread worth investing in. After all, as they say, the "butter" the stock, the better!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "The Butter Chronicles," Smith and Doe (2018) explore the historical and cultural significance of butter consumption, shedding light on its evolution from a staple in traditional diets to a modern-day indulgence. This text provides valuable insights into the societal attitudes towards butter, but it does not delve into its financial implications. It's like they've left the stock market high and dry.

Jones (2020) investigates the economic impact of dairy products in "Milk and Money: A Financial Analysis of the Dairy Industry." While the study uncovers the financial influence of milk and cheese, it fails to spread its analysis to the realm of butter. After all, why stop at lactose-rich products when you can butter up some stocks too?

Moving beyond the realm of scholarly articles, "The Big Book of Butter" presents a comprehensive guide to everything butter-related, from its production to its culinary applications. Though it lacks a chapter on financial investments, it serves as a valuable resource for butter enthusiasts and aspiring dairy aficionados alike. In the immortal words of Julia Child, "With enough butter, anything is good."

On a more fictional note, "The Butter Conspiracy" by M. Argarine explores a whimsical world where butter holds the key to a grand financial conspiracy. While the events in the book may be pure fiction, one can't help but wonder if there's a dollop of truth hidden within its pages. Perhaps the stock market is more "buttered up" than we realize.

And just when you thought we couldn't go any further, we delved into unconventional sources for our literature review. That's right, we turned to the back of shampoo bottles for some enlightening reading material. While these bottles did not provide any direct insights into the butter-stock price connection, they did leave our hair feeling silky smooth and our minds ready for some slick financial analysis.

With the literature review complete, it's clear that the link between butter consumption and Humana's stock price is an emerging field that demands further investigation and, perhaps, a few more puns. As the saying goes, let's not "butter" this up - it's time to dive into the financial "spread" and uncover the creamy truth behind this unexpected relationship.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2021

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
In recent years, there has been a butter-induced buzz in the financial world. This study delves into the buttery world of financial markets to investigate the unexpected connection between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). The goal is to butter up our understanding of the financial implications of dairy delight. Get ready for some dairy delicious findings!

Using data from the USDA and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we conducted a rigorous statistical analysis to churn through the data and uncover any potential relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a surprisingly strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 with a p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2021. But hey, we're not just spreading butter here, we're spreading knowledge!

In other words, it seems that as butter consumption increases, so does the stock price of Humana. It's like the stock market just can't handle the buttery smooth goodness! Perhaps there's something to be said for investing in dairy futures. Who knew that a pat of butter could have such a financial impact? But then again, as they say, you can't butter both sides of your bread.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Buttering up the financial markets? Who would've thought that the creamy, delectable world of butter could have any bearing on stock prices? As the saying goes, "I can't believe it's not financial advice!" Our study embarks on the investigation of the enigmatic relationship between butter consumption and the stock price of Humana (HUM). It's time to spread some serious financial knowledge and perhaps a few dad jokes along the way.
The butter-induced buzz has not gone unnoticed in the financial landscape. Some might even say it's causing quite a "spread" in the market. It seems that butter is not just for toast and baking - it may have implications for stock portfolios too. But don't worry, we promise not to take this study with a grain of salt. After all, we can't let it go to our heads, we're not in the dairy business!
Taking a deep dive into the data, we wielded statistical tools to churn through the numbers and examine the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9119075, with a p-value of less than 0.01. It's like the financial markets are in a heated debate - to butter or not to butter? But as any good dairy farmer would attest, don't cry over spilled milk, especially if it's a bullish market!
The dairy delicious findings of our study have not only unveiled a surprising connection but also opened up a world of pun-tential in discussing the buttery implications for stock prices. It seems that butter consumption is positively correlated with the stock price of Humana, much like how a pat of butter positively correlates with a slice of warm bread. It's enough to make you wonder if there's a "margarine" for error in this relationship.
Stay tuned as we delve further into the creamy conundrum of butter's influence on stock prices. It's time to separate the whey from the chaff and see if there's a financial spread worth investing in. After all, as they say, the "butter" the stock, the better!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To study the buttery influence on Humana's stock price, we employed a multifaceted approach that combined elements of financial analysis, statistical modeling, and a few dairy-related puns just for good measure. Our data collection spanned from 2002 to 2021 and primarily drew from reputable sources such as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv). It was quite the journey, akin to churning butter by hand - a laborious process but ultimately rewarding. Speaking of which, did you hear about the butter who didn't want to spread? It was too "stiff" for its own good!

The first step in our methodology involved obtaining historical data on butter consumption and Humana's stock price. We combed through years of financial reports and dairy statistics, leaving no udder unturned in our quest for dairy-rich data. It was like searching for a needle in a haystack, only the needle was a stick of softened butter and the haystack was a mountain of stock market data. As they say, finding the right data can be as elusive as finding the right biscuit for your butter.

Next, we performed a rigorous quantitative analysis to identify any potential correlations between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. This involved applying various statistical techniques such as regression analysis, time series modeling, and correlation tests. It was a bit like kneading dough - we had to work the numbers until they were just right. Much like butter, patience is key when dealing with financial data. As the saying goes, "You can't rush perfection, whether it's a flaky croissant or a well-fitted regression model."

In addition to the numerical analysis, we conducted qualitative research interviews with industry experts to gain deeper insights into the butter and stock market correlation. We sought out the crème de la crème of financial minds, hoping to churn up some new perspectives on this unexpected relationship. It was an enlightening experience, much like finding the perfect balance of salt and sweet cream in a freshly churned batch of butter. Did you hear about the butter who went to the financial advisor? It wanted to make sure its investments were "spread" in all the right places!

Lastly, we engaged in extensive data visualization exercises to present our findings in a visually appealing manner. From line charts resembling the peaks and valleys of a butter knife to candlestick charts evoking thoughts of melted butter on warm toast, we aimed to craft visuals that would resonate with both financial analysts and dairy enthusiasts alike. It was akin to sculpting a work of art from a block of butter - molding data into meaningful insights. Speaking of art, have you heard about the artist who makes sculptures out of butter? It's quite the "spread" in the art world!

In summary, our methodological approach combined thorough data collection, quantitative analysis, qualitative insights, and expressive data visualization. It was a journey filled with financial scrutiny, statistical wizardry, and a healthy dose of dairy humor. As the old saying goes, "Where there's a will, there's a whey."

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
In recent years, there has been a butter-induced buzz in the financial world. This study delves into the buttery world of financial markets to investigate the unexpected connection between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). The goal is to butter up our understanding of the financial implications of dairy delight. Get ready for some dairy delicious findings!

Using data from the USDA and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we conducted a rigorous statistical analysis to churn through the data and uncover any potential relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a surprisingly strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 with a p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2021. But hey, we're not just spreading butter here, we're spreading knowledge!

In other words, it seems that as butter consumption increases, so does the stock price of Humana. It's like the stock market just can't handle the buttery smooth goodness! Perhaps there's something to be said for investing in dairy futures. Who knew that a pat of butter could have such a financial impact? But then again, as they say, you can't butter both sides of your bread.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "The Butter Chronicles," Smith and Doe (2018) explore the historical and cultural significance of butter consumption, shedding light on its evolution from a staple in traditional diets to a modern-day indulgence. This text provides valuable insights into the societal attitudes towards butter, but it does not delve into its financial implications. It's like they've left the stock market high and dry.
Jones (2020) investigates the economic impact of dairy products in "Milk and Money: A Financial Analysis of the Dairy Industry." While the study uncovers the financial influence of milk and cheese, it fails to spread its analysis to the realm of butter. After all, why stop at lactose-rich products when you can butter up some stocks too?
Moving beyond the realm of scholarly articles, "The Big Book of Butter" presents a comprehensive guide to everything butter-related, from its production to its culinary applications. Though it lacks a chapter on financial investments, it serves as a valuable resource for butter enthusiasts and aspiring dairy aficionados alike. In the immortal words of Julia Child, "With enough butter, anything is good."
On a more fictional note, "The Butter Conspiracy" by M. Argarine explores a whimsical world where butter holds the key to a grand financial conspiracy. While the events in the book may be pure fiction, one can't help but wonder if there's a dollop of truth hidden within its pages. Perhaps the stock market is more "buttered up" than we realize.
And just when you thought we couldn't go any further, we delved into unconventional sources for our literature review. That's right, we turned to the back of shampoo bottles for some enlightening reading material. While these bottles did not provide any direct insights into the butter-stock price connection, they did leave our hair feeling silky smooth and our minds ready for some slick financial analysis.
With the literature review complete, it's clear that the link between butter consumption and Humana's stock price is an emerging field that demands further investigation and, perhaps, a few more puns. As the saying goes, let's not "butter" this up - it's time to dive into the financial "spread" and uncover the creamy truth behind this unexpected relationship.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM) yielded some truly udderly fascinating results. From 2002 to 2021, we observed a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 between these two variables. It seems that the financial markets may have a soft spot for the creamy delight of butter after all. Maybe the saying should be updated to "butter makes the stocks go up."
The r-squared value of 0.8315752 further confirms the robustness of the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. It's as if the financial markets have been secretly buttering their bread with dairy futures all along. Who knew that the key to financial success was hidden in the dairy aisle?
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the striking positive correlation between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. It's as clear as butter - there's a definite connection here. It's almost as if the stock market is saying, "I can't believe it's not butter driving up my value!"
What this means for investors and dairy enthusiasts alike is an intriguing avenue for further exploration. Maybe it's time to rethink the traditional "butter and bread" idiom in favor of a more financial twist. After all, when it comes to the stock market, it seems that "where there's a will, there's a whey."

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of our study provide compelling evidence of a significant positive correlation between butter consumption and Humana's stock price, shedding light on the surprising financial influence of this dairy delight. It seems that, when it comes to financial success, butter truly does make everything better – or in this case, "butter."

This discovery builds upon the existing literature, which has largely overlooked the potential financial implications of butter consumption. Smith and Doe's (2018) work on the historical and cultural significance of butter consumption hinted at untapped avenues for research within the financial domain. Just like butter, our study has spread across these uncharted territories, showcasing the broader impact of butter on the stock market and serving up some savory financial insights.

Similarly, the omission of butter in Jones' (2020) exploration of the economic impact of dairy products represents a missed opportunity to fully grasp the breadth of dairy's influence on financial markets. It's as if they were churning through the dairy industry without fully appreciating the golden potential of butter. But fear not, for our study has brought this oversight to light and churned out some financial food for thought.

Moving beyond traditional academic sources, "The Big Book of Butter" may have neglected the financial side of butter, but it certainly prepared us for the rich insights that emerged from our study. And while "The Butter Conspiracy" by M. Argarine may seem like a whimsical tale, our findings suggest that there may be more truth to its buttery speculations than meets the eye.

The robust correlation coefficient and r-squared value in our results further support these previous works, reinforcing the idea that the financial world cannot resist the allure of butter. It's as if the stock market has been buttering up its investments all along, making room for a "butter portfolio" right alongside tech and healthcare. Who knew that the next bull market would be led by a herd of creamy cows?

Our study opens up exciting prospects for further research and investment strategies, inviting market analysts to consider butter consumption as a potential indicator for stock price movements. After all, it seems that where there's butter, there's financial churn – and investors may need to think beyond traditional spreadsheets to truly understand the market's "dairy-driven dynamics."

In conclusion, our study not only reaffirms the unexpected link between butter consumption and Humana's stock price but also underscores the need for a more inclusive understanding of dairy products' financial impact. Who would have thought that a pat of butter could hold the key to unlocking new perspectives on financial markets? But then again, as they say, "you can't have your butter and eat it, unless you're investing in HUM stocks." Keep spreading the knowledge, and remember, when it comes to financial markets, sometimes you just have to spread on a little more "dairy diversification" to truly churn up success.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
In recent years, there has been a butter-induced buzz in the financial world. This study delves into the buttery world of financial markets to investigate the unexpected connection between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). The goal is to butter up our understanding of the financial implications of dairy delight. Get ready for some dairy delicious findings!

Using data from the USDA and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we conducted a rigorous statistical analysis to churn through the data and uncover any potential relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a surprisingly strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 with a p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2021. But hey, we're not just spreading butter here, we're spreading knowledge!

In other words, it seems that as butter consumption increases, so does the stock price of Humana. It's like the stock market just can't handle the buttery smooth goodness! Perhaps there's something to be said for investing in dairy futures. Who knew that a pat of butter could have such a financial impact? But then again, as they say, you can't butter both sides of your bread.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Buttering up the financial markets? Who would've thought that the creamy, delectable world of butter could have any bearing on stock prices? As the saying goes, "I can't believe it's not financial advice!" Our study embarks on the investigation of the enigmatic relationship between butter consumption and the stock price of Humana (HUM). It's time to spread some serious financial knowledge and perhaps a few dad jokes along the way.
The butter-induced buzz has not gone unnoticed in the financial landscape. Some might even say it's causing quite a "spread" in the market. It seems that butter is not just for toast and baking - it may have implications for stock portfolios too. But don't worry, we promise not to take this study with a grain of salt. After all, we can't let it go to our heads, we're not in the dairy business!
Taking a deep dive into the data, we wielded statistical tools to churn through the numbers and examine the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9119075, with a p-value of less than 0.01. It's like the financial markets are in a heated debate - to butter or not to butter? But as any good dairy farmer would attest, don't cry over spilled milk, especially if it's a bullish market!
The dairy delicious findings of our study have not only unveiled a surprising connection but also opened up a world of pun-tential in discussing the buttery implications for stock prices. It seems that butter consumption is positively correlated with the stock price of Humana, much like how a pat of butter positively correlates with a slice of warm bread. It's enough to make you wonder if there's a "margarine" for error in this relationship.
Stay tuned as we delve further into the creamy conundrum of butter's influence on stock prices. It's time to separate the whey from the chaff and see if there's a financial spread worth investing in. After all, as they say, the "butter" the stock, the better!

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM) yielded some truly udderly fascinating results. From 2002 to 2021, we observed a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 between these two variables. It seems that the financial markets may have a soft spot for the creamy delight of butter after all. Maybe the saying should be updated to "butter makes the stocks go up."
The r-squared value of 0.8315752 further confirms the robustness of the relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. It's as if the financial markets have been secretly buttering their bread with dairy futures all along. Who knew that the key to financial success was hidden in the dairy aisle?
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the striking positive correlation between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. It's as clear as butter - there's a definite connection here. It's almost as if the stock market is saying, "I can't believe it's not butter driving up my value!"
What this means for investors and dairy enthusiasts alike is an intriguing avenue for further exploration. Maybe it's time to rethink the traditional "butter and bread" idiom in favor of a more financial twist. After all, when it comes to the stock market, it seems that "where there's a will, there's a whey."

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the findings of this study provide compelling evidence of a strong positive correlation between butter consumption and Humana's stock price over the period of 2002 to 2021. It seems that the financial world might indeed have a taste for the creamy goodness of butter, sending Humana's stock price soaring with each pat of dairy delight. Perhaps we should consider adding a new line to the classic investment advice: "Buy low, sell high, and always have ample butter on hand."

This unexpected connection between butter consumption and stock prices offers a fresh perspective on the intricate dynamics of financial markets. It's as if the stock market has been secretly churning out butter-related gains all this time. One might even say, "that's quite the spread in the stock market!"

Given the undeniable correlation we've uncovered, it's clear that investors and analysts should keep a keen eye on butter consumption trends when evaluating Humana's stock performance. Who knew that a dairy product could hold such sway over financial indicators? It's a reminder that in the financial world, even the most unexpected variables can play a crucial role. After all, as they say, "don't count your chickens before they're hatched, but do keep an eye on that butter churn."

As for future research directions, it seems we've thoroughly churned through this topic. The findings of this study suggest that no further research is needed to establish the strong relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. It's time to spread our research efforts to other financial flavors. There may be plenty more financial conundrums waiting to be uncovered, but in the realm of butter and stock prices, we can confidently say, "case closed, butter basted!"

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Butter Digest

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Dairy Economics and Financial Analysis

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price with an abstract of In recent years, there has been a butter-induced buzz in the financial world. This study delves into the buttery world of financial markets to investigate the unexpected connection between butter consumption and Humana's stock price (HUM). The goal is to butter up our understanding of the financial implications of dairy delight. Get ready for some dairy delicious findings!

Using data from the USDA and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we conducted a rigorous statistical analysis to churn through the data and uncover any potential relationship between butter consumption and Humana's stock price. Our findings revealed a surprisingly strong correlation coefficient of 0.9119075 with a p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 2002 to 2021. But hey, we're not just spreading butter here, we're spreading knowledge!
In other words, it seems that as butter consumption increases, so does the stock price of Humana. It's like the stock market just can't handle the buttery smooth goodness! Perhaps there's something to be said for investing in dairy futures. Who knew that a pat of butter could have such a financial impact? But then again, as they say, you can't butter both sides of your bread.

ChatGPT:

butter consumption, stock price, financial markets, dairy products, USDA data, LSEG Analytics, statistical analysis, correlation coefficient, p-value, Humana stock, dairy futures, financial implications

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Butter consumption
Detailed data title: Per capita consumption of Butter in the US
Source: USDA
See what else correlates with Butter consumption

Humana's stock price (HUM)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Humana (HUM) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Humana's stock price (HUM)

Correlation r = 0.9119075 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8315752 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 83.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Humana's stock price (HUM)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Butter consumption) over the 20 years from 2002 through 2021.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.2E-8.^Show 0.0000000219621547652786450000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.91 in 2.2E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 45,532,873 random variables^Note You don't actually need 45 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 19 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 19 because we have two variables measured over a period of 20 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.79, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Butter consumption (Pounds per person)	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.7	4.7	5	5	4.9	5.4	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.7	5.7	6	6.2	6.3	6.5
Humana's stock price (HUM) (Stock price)	11.8	10.1	23.05	29.86	54.91	55.46	76.51	37.38	44.43	55.06	89.21	69.74	102.76	144.95	177.67	202.87	249.36	283.31	367.16	417.82

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([4.4,4.5,4.5,4.5,4.7,4.7,5,5,4.9,5.4,5.5,5.5,5.5,5.6,5.7,5.7,6,6.2,6.3,6.5,])
array_2 = np.array([11.8,10.1,23.05,29.86,54.91,55.46,76.51,37.38,44.43,55.06,89.21,69.74,102.76,144.95,177.67,202.87,249.36,283.31,367.16,417.82,])
array_1_name = "Butter consumption"
array_2_name = "Humana's stock price (HUM)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Butter consumption
Line chart for only Humana's stock price (HUM)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Spreading Financial Butter: Uncovering the Relationship Between Butter Consumption and Humana's Stock Price

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Correlation ID: 3743 · Black Variable ID: 557 · Red Variable ID: 1708


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